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Ray of Hope - 88th Draw

drkular said:
Hi Guys,

Could anyone please tell me if there is a time period after submission of EE profile & becoming eligible for a draw?

Also thank you for all the info that is shared here!
Click to expand...

Please keep aside atleast 12 hours after submission.
 
Midnight Blessing said:
a single back to back draw can balance the huge influx of applicants sitting on 438-442 range. Otherwise, it will take considerable amount of time to see the declination on the cutoff from 442-438 even with 3500 itas every fortnight. Badly need a draw with 3500 next Wednesday............
Click to expand...

Hope for the best now! That's the only way score's will come down below 440.
CIC sure has increased the number of ITAs but the cut-off still remains quite high & only 2 points less than previous that was not even at a gap of 2 weeks.

We have to wait to see if B2B draws will happen this month like in 2017 where they had 3 B2B draws in April that caused CRS to go as low as 415.
Though I don't think this year it is possible at all that score will hit that low.

#hopeful
 
Maads said:
Is there chances of 359 to be selected ????
Click to expand...
If you ask for a PNP stream, it might be. It depends on your work experience, NOC, second language knowledge and such.

But for direct ITA the answer is NO. (an obvious answer of course).
 
Midnight Blessing said:
guys, lets see the actual approximate calculations related with the draws and subsequent flushing out- lets assume one is having 435 crs and lets calculate how long will he need to reach this cutoff as many of us are currently in this landmark-


currently, 3800 profile above 435 and below 441 +1200 above 440= 5000- left

3000 new entrants approx every 2 weeks above 435.

-3500 itas given every 2 weeks

left after next draw after 2 weeks= 4500 (D1)

so, considering this as a standard, we can find out how many draws will be taken approx to reach 435, which is

5000/500= 10 draws from yesterdays draw. so, in conclusion, it will take 5 more months with 3500 itas to reach CRS 435 cutoff with strictly biweekly draws.

The only ray of hope here is a couple of back to back draws and also if the ita size increases to 4000 soon.
Click to expand...
how about for 440?
 
drkular said:
Hi Guys,

Could anyone please tell me if there is a time period after submission of EE profile & becoming eligible for a draw?

Also thank you for all the info that is shared here!
Click to expand...
In my case draw was at around 10:40 AM UTC and I had created my profile 2:30 AM UTC on the same day as the draw. Basically 8 hours before the draw. I got ITA.
 
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Is there anyone who has recently got a PPR? Can you tell me how much time it usually takes for background check? It's been a month and my status is the same. That we LL inform you when we begin your background check. Plz help
 
Last October I read some interesting posts from one of the expert-senior members of this forum @BillHyatt on "Ray of Hope 74th Draw" thread. According to him Government of Canada confirmed that Targets runs from January to December, however, plans run from April to March each year. Quotas of Provinces are renewed on 1 Jan each year.
So targets set are from April to March while target count is from Jan-Dec. GoC states that these targets are just a guidance and they will keep going even if PR crosses the Upper Limits, so they are estimates not quotas like Provinces.

I hardly understood him then but now I can see the clear picture! 3500 ITAs are the start of 2018-19 quota implementation from April. Now we should see back to back draws and increase of Invitation number. You can read those posts in links given below-

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw
 
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ishq74 said:
Last October I read some interesting posts from one of the expert-senior members of this forum @BillHyatt on "Ray of Hope 74th Draw" thread. According to him Government of Canada confirmed that Targets runs from January to December, however, plans run from April to March each year. Quotas of Provinces are renewed on 1 Jan each year.
So targets set are from April to March while target count is from Jan-Dec. GoC states that these targets are just a guidance and they will keep going even if PR crosses the Upper Limits, so they are estimates not quotas like Provinces.

I hardly understood him then but now I can see the clear picture! 3500 ITAs are the start of 2018-19 quota implementation from April. Now we should see back to back draws and increase of Invitation number. You can read those posts in links given below-

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw
Click to expand...
however, the 2017 draws started to peak as the year started and then tapered off by July or so. Well, lets hope for b2b draw.
 
alexross said:
Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

From Feb 15th to Mar 8th:
above 440:226 per day
above 430:261 per day
above 410:279 per day

From Mar 8th to Mar 20th:
above 440:181 per day
above 430:226 per day
above 410:252 per day

From Mar 20th to Apr 4th:
above 440:196 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:235 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:

For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

The values listed are cumulative:
above 430=(430 to 440) + above 440.
so if you want only 430 to 440 per day you can calculate that by subtracting above 440 from above 430 value.
i.e) people entering the pool with score between 430 to 440 from feb 15th to march 8th would be 261-226=35 per day
Click to expand...

So i looked at above calculations and it looks like on the day of Draw - April 11th we had approx. 1928 Applicants between 441-450 CRS
(
That being said there was 1420 applicants on or above 451 CRS entering the pool between March 27 and April 4th (9 days) Average 158 per day.
There was 7 more days till draw so on the day of draw estimated pool looked like:

451+ - 2524 Applicants (158 applicants entering daily)
441-450 - 1928 Applicants (38 applicants entering daily)
431-440 - 6692 Applicants (20 applicants entering daily)

Now we had draw of 3500 so we come down to:

451+ = 0 Applicants ....After the draw day
441-450 = 952 Applicants .... After the draw day
431-450 = 6692 Applicants ... After the draw day

Lets estimate what the pool will look like on possible draw dates:

7 Days after April 18 (very unlikely)

451 = 1106 Applicants
441-450 = 1218 Applicants
431-440 = 6832 Applicants

In this scenario you can clearly see that CUT OFF would be 440 or lower. Could be anything between 338 to 440, it really depends on where exactly applicants are stuck in 431-440....

14 Days after April 25 (likely the draw day)
451 = 2212 Applicants
441-450 = 1484 Applicants
431-440 = 6972 Applicants

In this scenario we have about 196 applicants left in range of 441-450 after the draw day. That being said CRS CUT-OFF could be 441 with TBRULE or 442.



DRAW ON MAY 9 (14 Days after April 25, second draw within 14 days gap)
451 = 2212 Applicants (AGAIN)
441 - 450 = 728 Applicants
431 - 440 = 7252 Applicants

In this scenario 560 Applicants from range 431 - 440 will receive ITA's so it most likely going to be 440 CRS CUT-OFF


I will work on more clear estimate.
 
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ishq74 said:
Last October I read some interesting posts from one of the expert-senior members of this forum @BillHyatt on "Ray of Hope 74th Draw" thread. According to him Government of Canada confirmed that Targets runs from January to December, however, plans run from April to March each year. Quotas of Provinces are renewed on 1 Jan each year.
So targets set are from April to March while target count is from Jan-Dec. GoC states that these targets are just a guidance and they will keep going even if PR crosses the Upper Limits, so they are estimates not quotas like Provinces.

I hardly understood him then but now I can see the clear picture! 3500 ITAs are the start of 2018-19 quota implementation from April. Now we should see back to back draws and increase of Invitation number. You can read those posts in links given below-

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw

Ray of Hope - 74th Draw
Click to expand...
This is an absolute gem! It answers so many questions.
Now we can be pretty certain that they are only just starting the new quota. The only concern would be if they decide to distribute it a bit more evenly than last year. However it is definitely a glimmer of hope for all of us sitting under the 440's
Exciting times are ahead!
 
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