Ray of Hope - 84th Draw
- Thread starter AlliBatista
- Start date
So I was trying to figure out the ins and outs in the express entry pool. It seems to me, the no of net entry in the range 411-440 is not much. Around 60 profile per day in the last 45 days (Dec 18 - Feb 01 ). However, The no of new profile in the 441+ CRS is much higher. But the promising thing is that the new entries in that high range, even though very high, is still not enough to keep the CRS score stable, that is why we are seeing 2 points decrease in every draw (in the last three draws). So if there is no new sudden unusual influx of new profiles entering the pool there is no reason for the CRS score to stay above 440 in coming weeks.
In addition, if the ITA remain above 3000+ and if there is even one or two back to back draws the CRS score will plummet down because once some of the profiles in the 431-440 are cleared the no of the new entries in the 431-1200 will not be able to keep the CRS stable.
if i withdraw my profile to recreate now profile , will i create it from scratch or my data in old profile still
But the BIG question is whether the cut off will go down despite the decrease in number of ITAs?
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the average number of people entered the pool from feb 1- feb 7 was 200, whose crs was above 440. So, even if the average number of people entering the pool was very low for 431-440, it wont mean much if history keeps repeating itself in the coming months as of the first week of Feb. CIC might not go with any back to back draws as their current tendency, so cutoff is really depending on the people entering the pool who is having 440+ scores & also the ita size which has to rise gradually and this might be our very last hope.
So I was trying to figure out the ins and outs in the express entry pool. It seems to me, the no of net entry in the range 411-440 is not much. Around 60 profile per day in the last 45 days (Dec 18 - Feb 01 ). However, The no of new profile in the 441+ CRS is much higher. But the promising thing is that the new entries in that high range, even though very high, is still not enough to keep the CRS score stable, that is why we are seeing 2 points decrease in every draw (in the last three draws). So if there is no new sudden unusual influx of new profiles entering the pool there is no reason for the CRS score to stay above 440 in coming weeks.
In addition, if the ITA remain above 3000+ and if there is even one or two back to back draws the CRS score will plummet down because once some of the profiles in the 431-440 are cleared the no of the new entries in the 431-1200 will not be able to keep the CRS stable.
After every hope and prognosis... It has been cleared so far that the CIC is UNPREDICTABLE. If you saw that before that finally we had some stagnation with the CIC giving 2750 ITAs since 15th November to 24th January. So at least we were able to calculate and get a fair idea what can happen next. Now with 3000 ITAs released on the last draw. We really cannot predict whether this time they would release 3000 ITAs or 2750 ITAs or some another golden figure. Without which its beyond the bounds of possibility to foretell what is going to happen!
Before going through all this lets just first hope that there would be a draw today.
Good luck everybody for today's draw!
May we see ITAs shower and may you all get one
#KeepYourHopeAlive
May we see ITAs shower and may you all get one
#KeepYourHopeAlive
I had high hopes in June 2017 before score went to 440 but now...Likewise. Sitting at 413 too.
I totally believe CIC will maintain their draw size of 3000 and probably increase the number in a few months. I think they are trying to become more predictable. They will also maintain the interval rate of 2 weeks. This may sound bad but I believe that on the long run this is far better than what we had in the past. I belI even the cutoffs will keep going down upto early next year. It may be gradual but it will be more or less permanent. Eventually, everyone above 410 at the moment will be drawn before the beginning of 2019, regardless of drops due to upcoming birthdays
Bonjour les amis, good luck to all waiting for ITA today!
Following the past year trend, the number of ITAs will only increase, until at least the middle of the year. So, we'll have 3000 or 3250 ITAs today.
Following the past year trend, the number of ITAs will only increase, until at least the middle of the year. So, we'll have 3000 or 3250 ITAs today.
Congratulations in advance u r in today, if there is a draw..