New Year, New Ray of Hope! We had a mixed emotional 2017. Many of us made it to ITA stage where many still waiting in the pool. From today new multiyear immigration plan for nearly 1 million immigrants target is going to kick start. I am sure 2018 will be the golden year for many of us and Express Entry system will enter into a new era to witness the uncharted CRS territory of bottom 400s or lower. Now let me tell you my view on how it will go that low.
For this calendar year Economic Class target is 74,900 for which we can expect around 90,000 to 95,000 ITAs because 30% ITAs get wasted! If we have normal biweekly draws then intake per draw should be more than 3500 candidates. Last five months CRS score didn't go below 433 and the year ended on 446. Due to low number of ITAs upward pressure on CRS score was constant. Even though we have had regular biweekly draws, the upper band of the pool got filled with fresh applicants before every draw but lower range between 400 to 430 was some what similar through out the time.
Why this phenomenon happened? Some would say PNP nominations but it hardly made an impact as the number of candidates above 600 were very few, less than 200. Yes it is IELTS and second language score. People from lower range, mostly from lower 400s are improving their 1st language skills and also adding 2nd language points. These people are getting into 450+ range and contributing to limit CRS cutoff number. Of course new entrants with high score also joined but it is very unlikely that their number can be as high as 2750 in two weeks!
We all know improving 1st language score and adding an extra one is expensive and demand extra effort and time! Then why do people do this? Because immigration systems all over the world are quite unpredictable and IRCC is no different. People are scared what if IRCC brings a change and makes it difficult, what if they stop taking people, so much uncertainty in people's mind. When IRCC started to reduce the number of ITAs, people got more anxious and started to put their highest possible effort to increase their score, and that contributed CRS cutoff go to above 450 at the end part of the year. Naturally every one wants to get ahead of others, no matter what it takes.
As I said, in 2018 IRCC need to conduct regular biweekly draws and invite 3500 folks every time if they want to achieve the target. Once they start inviting more folks, downward pressure on CRS cutoff will mount. When CRS cutoff will start to show signs of getting down people will be much relaxed and happy to wait for their turn. Then the upper ranges will not fill up as it is filling up now and cutoff will go more down. In between back to back draws will do a lot of magic too! Two back to back draws with 3500+ ITAs will clear more than 7000 folks within 7 days! I don't think many people will be bothered to go through the hassle of retaking IELTS for CLB 9 band or learn french when they will see ITAs coming down to them very soon.
I always believed that a language skill cannot be a benchmark to judge some one's knowledge and wisdom. And you can't buy experience by better language ability. I am sure Canadian government know that as well thus they have set CLB 7 as the minimum score not CLB 9. IRCC want people with different skills and experience from diverse communities from all over the world otherwise they would have invited candidates from English speaking countries only.
So everyone from lower 400s and below, don't lose hope. You are educated, skilled, experienced and eligible to migrate in Canada, that is why you are in the pool. Your turn is coming very soon. Just be a little patient, you will see the Ray of Hope shining bright not so far away!!
Happy New Year Everyone! Wish You A Wonderful 2018, May All Your Wishes Come True Before We WelCome Another Year!
