This is really informative analysis by Kubeir kamal in his FB blog.. thought to share with my friends here , Cheers.. Good news to come for all of us soon
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So this was the eagerly awaited news release of the new targets for 2018 and beyond. I have attached several links below of the same release.
Though there was a lot of expectations with regards to increase in the targets and quotas, with a mere 3% increase on YoY, this sure is a downer.
The breakdown of targets under different economic streams hasnt changed much either.
This is how I see it affect the future draw sizes and CRS. (disclaimer:- this is pure speculation and my personal opinion)
1. The good news is that federal targets are not fixed to a number. Its more of a flexible range. So that CIC does not have to stop once it reaches the targets. For the year 2018 the range is from 290k-330k, which is a fair range of 40k.
2. Economic class targets hover in the range of 180K which is also a mere 3% increase on the 2017 figures.
3. The more important targets that concerns the people on this group is PNP Quotas, which is now at 55k (increase of 4000) and Federal High skilled - 74900 (vs 73500 last year).
4. This is how I think it will pan out - with total PNP+Federal = 130k target for landed immigrants for the year 2018, it roughly means 59k successfully processed ITAs (Each ITA = 2.23 landed immigrant).
With the decline/rejection average rate of 30-34% (as per 2017 April declared figures by CIC) IRCC will have to issue roughly 86000-88000 ITAs to meet this target.
5. If we assume that IRCC will conduct 24-28 FSW draws in a year with an average 2.2 draws a month, then the average ITA size per draw must be in the range of 3300-3500.
6. This draw size will effectively bring the CRS down to low 420s within the span of 3-4 draws as that will flush out the collected applicants in the pool.
7. However since the number of new applicants entering the pool with scores over 420 average between 220-240 per day. This means that in the near future it may not look like the CRS will drop lower than 420 if the draw sizes remain at 3300-3500 figures. It has happened before and there is nothing to stop it from happening the CRS to drop to phenomenal low levels of 410s, but for that to happen the ITA draw size has to go up to 3800-3900 levels as was noticed in the month of April-May 2017.
Synopsis - Overall, the fact that the immigration targets have been announced with progressive increase upto the year 2020 is a healthy sign. This will help all provinces and IRCC to be more prepared to handle the increase in applications and hence we can see consistent faster application processing from AOR-PPR.
In the immediate short term, I
#hope to see that IRCC adopts the 2018 targets as soon as possible, as technically all the applications processed henceforth will count towards the landed immigrants only in the year 2018. This increased ITA size will see and immediate drop in CRS and will bring a much needed relief to all those applicants who are stuck in the 420-433 bracket.
Good luck to all aspiring immigrants, ""May the odds be ever in your favour"".
