Ray of Hope - 69th Draw
- Thread starter AlliBatista
- Start date
My assumptions are all based on Bi weekly draw . Only exception to this rule would be for August . However if we do get lucky & get a draw on 9th Aug then this entire equation would change
if in any month we do get a draw in consecutive weeks then this analysis wont stand . Hence the prediction for bi weekly draws . ignore the 9th aug predictionI give up! Too thick headed to decifer your prediction
OK makes sense now.
I think your prediction is way too conservative though. You are predicting a decrease of only 3 points even though the spacing between draws is just 2 weeks... I think from rough extrapolation from past data the difference would atleast be about 5 to 6 points? Granted that it might be 4 to 5 as we get to the 420s, due to larger number of applicants in that CRS range.
I am also hoping for larger draws
His prediction seems pretty realistic to me because of the large number of new applicants with very high CRS getting in the pool daily.OK makes sense now.
I think your prediction is way too conservative though. You are predicting a decrease of only 3 points even though the spacing between draws is just 2 weeks... I think from rough extrapolation from past data the difference would atleast be about 5 to 6 points? Granted that it might be 4 to 5 as we get to the 420s, due to larger number of applicants in that CRS range.
I am also hoping for larger draws
Here's my prediction based on last couple of draws and the number of people currently in the pool. Draw size is estimated at 3,200/-
16 Aug 434
30 Aug 429
13 Sep 425
27 Sep 421
16 Aug 434
30 Aug 429
13 Sep 425
27 Sep 421
I hope what you saying comes true but we are seeing new people being added to the pool in the 430-440 category ( 28 per day ) , 420-430 category ( 20 per day ) , 440 & above ( 165 people per day ) . Entire dynamics of the pool is ais but the only issue is that the no of ITA's issued has gone down from 3800 to 3200OK makes sense now.
I think your prediction is way too conservative though. You are predicting a decrease of only 3 points even though the spacing between draws is just 2 weeks... I think from rough extrapolation from past data the difference would atleast be about 5 to 6 points? Granted that it might be 4 to 5 as we get to the 420s, due to larger number of applicants in that CRS range.
I am also hoping for larger draws
A little too optimistic,eh?
The assumption is based on the last draw. 1400 new entrants above CRS 440 are added every fortnight. The remainder (3200 - 1400) = 1800 will be used up by CRS < 440. Given the CRS 431-440 range will have 2244+445 = 2,689, the cutoff is estimated at CRS 434.A little too optimistic,eh?
If the draw happens on 9th august, the CRS will be 433 and if it happens on aug 16th - crs would be 437.
But if it happens this week and the next week, the CRS wont rise up at any cost.
your analysis is wrong...there were 3263 new applicants with scores above 440 & above which got added to the pool in 3 weeks translating into 1100 per week .Hence , if they come out with a draw for 3200 people 2200 would be new entrants hence only 1000 people from the existing pool would get picked up every 2 weeks
Agreed. I stand corrected. So by this calculation, we are looking at a 437 cuttoff if draw takes place on 16th.
yep ...437-438 would be the range unless CIC decides to surprise us all with a draw on 9th & then the Cut off could drop drastically to 432-433