Ray of Hope 67th Draw

[raj2017]

Guys i would need your advice here:

In Pool with CRS 441 at this point - getting married in December'17. If eAPR is done before Dec'17 which i am hopeful , can i still go back to my EE Profile , make changes in the marital status

If yes - what's going to happen to my application at that point ? Spouse doesn't have ECA , IELTS yet

i think your status should be the same as it was at the time of getting ITA bc according to that you were given crs score, however if you get married after eAPR then i am afraid that you can include your spouse and take her along, you will have to process separately, to the best of my knowledge

 

[raj2017]

How about 375???? Any chance ever???

of course yes, i believe you have a chance, but may be in first quarter of 2018, unless you get pnp from any province,

 

[abhishek_89]

Had some spare time to check the possibilities to get direct ITA for applicant having CRS near 400, going pessimistic for calculations.

Experts please have a look into the calculation and please point out anything is missed or wrongly considered.

Calculation is based on following assumptions,
1. Frequency of draw : Bi-weekly
2. Draw size : 3300 ITAs
3. Average no. of applicant inflow per day : 150



Gap (in no. of Days) between 65 & 66 draw : 26 days
CRS Range 26-May 22-Jun Newly Added
1. 601 1200 143 355 212
2. 451 600 656 2216 1560
3. 401 450 6717 9463 2746
4. 441 450 226 809 583
5. 431 440 295 1082 787
6. 421 430 206 1172 966
7. 411 420 1878 1968 90
8. 401 410 4112 4432 320

A Total applicant above 400 till 22 June (1+2+3) :12034
B Newly Added Applicants above 400 in 26 Days (1+2+3) : 4518
C Newly Added Applicants above 400 per Day (B/26 Days) between draw 65 & 66 : 174
C'' Newly Added Applicants above 400 per Day considered for future draws : 150
C' Tentative no. of applicants on 28th June (A+(7*C)) : 13250
D Applicant above CRS 400 in poll on 29 July (C'-3409) : 9841

Draw 67 on 5th July
E Total applicant above 400 till 5 July (D+(14xC'')) : 11941
F Considering draw size of 3300 on 5th June, remaining candidate above 400 (E-3300) : 8641

Draw 68 on 19th July
G Total applicant above 400 till 19 July (F+(14xC")) : 10741
H Considering draw size of 3300 on 19th July, remaining candidate above 400 (G-3300) : 7241

Draw 69 on 2nd August
I Total applicant above 400 till 2nd August (H+(14xC")) : 9341
J Considering draw size of 3300 on 2nd August, remaining candidate above 400 (I-3300) : 5841

Draw 70 on 16th August
K Total applicant above 400 till 16th August (J+(14xC")) : 7941
L Considering draw size of 3300 on 16th August, remaining candidate above 400 (K-3300) : 4441

Draw 71 on 30th August
M Total applicant above 400 till 30th August (L+(14xC")) : 6541
N Considering draw size of 3300 on 30th August, remaining candidate above 400 (M-3300) : 3041

Draw 72 on 13th September
O Total applicant above 400 till 13th Sept (N+(14xC'')) : 5141
P Considering draw size of 3300 on 13th Sept, remaining candidate above 400 (O-3300) : 1641

Draw 73 on 27th September
Q Total applicant above 400 till 27th September (P+(14xC'')) : 3741
R Considering draw size of 3300 on 27th September, remaining candidate above 400 (Q-3300) : 241

Draw 74 on 4th October-Cutoff going below CRS 400
S Total applicant above 400 till 27th September (R+(14xC'')) : 2341
T Considering draw size of 3300 on 27th September, remaining candidate above 400 (S-3300): -1159

There is a flaw in this calculation. How have you come up with the 'Average no. of applicant inflow per day : 150'?

Is the average number based on the CIC data released as of June 22?
Have you included the average number of applicants entering the express entry pool with CRS 401 and above only?


Please find below the data released by CIC.

Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 22, 2017

CRS Score Range Number of Candidates
601-1200 355
451-600 2,216
441-450 809
431-440 1,082
421-430 1,172


Let me give you an average based on just the data mentioned as of Jun 22.

We had a draw on May 31 with CRS cut off as 413, which basically means after the draw happened on May 31, the number of active applicants with a CRS score of 413 and above in the Express Entry Pool is 0 as on May 31, 2017.

For calculation easiness, I am considering only the data of applicants above 421 CRS as of June 22.

On May 31 2017, 0 applicants above CRS 421 and above
On Jun 22 2017, 5634 (355+2216+809+1082+1172) applicants with CRS 421 and above

So based on the above 2 points, in 22 days (from May 31 to Jun 22) 5634 applicants entered the pool with CRS 421 and above.
Hence, Average no. of applicants entered EE pool per day with a CRS of 421 and above = 5634/22 = 256

Notes:
1) The average includes those who have improved their scores + new applicants.
2) The average is a bit on the higher side than usual as the June 6 changes were implemented during this timeframe.

I am using data which is being published by CIC from March 2017 till date for my calculations and the average intake per day to the Express Entry pool for CRS 421 and above is approximately 215.

 

[abhishek_89]

Can you provide the source for this information?

I've heard in this very forum that PNP applicants are processed faster because their documentation is already verified

PNP stream has the slowest processing timeline compared to CEC and FSW. You can check the data on myimmitracker.

Currently, June AOR's have started getting Medicals Passed status in FSW stream while March AOR's are getting Medicals Passed status in PNP stream.

 

[sunny_guyed]

Ok, guys! I am a provincial nominee and got already my nomination. The problem is that I need to wait so long because the whole process takes about 16 months... this is crazy. I also have calculated my scores and it was more than 400, which could also get a nomination through express entry. My friends score is 375 so i do not think she get nominated at all..

 

[Aashy09]

Noc 1311 can receive NOI from ontario????

If you have crs score 400+ noi isn't limited to noc you just need 400+ and bachelors degree. Whereas for those who have less than 400 crs they will only get noi if noc is ict. Hope you get it

 

[abhishek_89]

Ok, guys! I am a provincial nominee and got already my nomination. The problem is that I need to wait so long because the whole process takes about 16 months... this is crazy. I also have calculated my scores and it was more than 400, which could also get a nomination through express entry. My friends score is 375 so i do not think she get nominated at all..

Where did you get the 16 months timeline? Is it OINP?

 

[rzargham1]

After we receive ITA, do we need to provide full scan copies of all passports to date or just our recent one?

 

[Pranavpal]

I am using data which is being published by CIC from March 2017 till date for my calculations and the average intake per day to the Express Entry pool for CRS 421 and above is approximately 215.

If u have the data of crs applicants in pool, could u please share it with me ? ( screenshot or excel or in whatever way u have will work. )

I would love to study the data to predict future ITA scores and to see where i stand.

Thanks !

 

[Jaymin007]

Where did you get the 16 months timeline? Is it OINP?

It's paper based PNP PR application timeline.

 

[sunny_guyed]

Where did you get the 16 months timeline? Is it OINP?

The CIC website for PNP says 16 months

 

[sunny_guyed]

It's paper based PNP PR application timeline.

Yeap! It is a paper based. You need to apply using a paper based application once you are nominated by a province

 

[MZASAM]

There have been numerous cases where people have got their PRs in 3-4 months. So 6 month is never a default time at all. On an average it takes around 4 months.

Friends

The processing time can be lesser if the documents are perfectly presented. It helps officers to take quick decisions.

 

[MartinH1337]

Hi everyone, new member here!

Just applied to join the pool, now it's time to wait.

Currently have a CRS score of 456 - is there a chance the required points will increase for the next draw? Thanks, and good luck!

 

[langoorbandar]

Hi everyone, new member here!

Just applied to join the pool, now it's time to wait.

Currently have a CRS score of 456 - is there a chance the required points will increase for the next draw? Thanks, and good luck!

Welcome to the pool, you are almost guaranteed to have an ITA during next draw.