Ray of Hope 62nd Draw

[ivancabrer]

I'm really not trying to be a party popper, there's nothing I would love more than getting a direct ITA without having to apply to the OINP. It's just an observation. If they force the score to go up too much, we'll have to do one of the following:
-Apply to the PNP.
-Wait for their quota to run out and then the scores should continue to go down.

Can anybody tell me the OINP quota for this year?

 

[andieangel]

I'm really not trying to be a party popper, there's nothing I would love more than getting a direct ITA without having to apply to the OINP. It's just an observation. If they force the score to go up too much, we'll have to do one of the following:
-Apply to the PNP.
-Wait for their quota to run out and then the scores should continue to go down.

Can anybody tell me the OINP quota for this year?

I think I've read on their web page, it's there somewhere that qouta is 6000 but this includes 3 categories, 3rd one is human capital stream. They don't say how many is for each category. And this is trough the whole year so I wouldn't worry too much about scores going up because of this.

 

[andieangel]

I think I've read on their web page, it's there somewhere that qouta is 6000 but this includes 3 categories, 3rd one is human capital stream. They don't say how many is for each category.

I wouldn't be too worried about people with nominations because there can be maybe 200 or 300 people that received nominations in this draw and I think I am being generous here.

 

[andieangel]

Sooo guys my prediction for this week's draw either tomorrow or on thursday...413 with 3900 ITAs. And draw after this one, hopefully only week away is 403 with 3800 ITAs.

 

[ivancabrer]

I wouldn't be too worried about people with nominations because there can be maybe 200 or 300 people that received nominations in this draw and I think I am being generous here.

Maybe you're right, but I don't know. My stupid nerves are kicking in. I would really love to get the ITA this month.

 

[ivancabrer]

Sooo guys my prediction for this week's draw either tomorrow or on thursday...413 with 3900 ITAs.

Why not 412?

Just joking, I think it will be either 415 with 3700 or 414 with 4000 ITAs.

 

[andieangel]

Maybe you're right, but I don't know. My stupid nerves are kicking in. I would really love to get the ITA this month.

I know how you feel! Believe me! I also really need ITA this month, I am counting on it and also my family and our issues are depending on it! It's gonna happen!

 

[andieangel]

Why not 412?

Just joking, I think it will be either 415 with 3700 or 414 with 4000 ITAs.

I think it would be awsome if it's 400 right away but difference in going up or down was never more than 10 points so on basis on that I am thinking 413, but hey, you never know, CIC is very unpredictable!

 

[Cannysure]

Let's expect 420+ for tomorrow's draw..

 

[ivancabrer]

I think it would be awsome if it's 400 right away but difference in going up or down was never more than 10 points so on basis on that I am thinking 413, but hey, you never know, CIC is very unpredictable!

Remember the Score falls down depending on how many invitations they give.

Last time (Apr. 28th), this was the headcount for these segments:

411-420 -- 2,003
401-410 -- 3,942

Because of new candidates in the EE, maybe right now there are already more than 3,000 in the 411-420 segment.
So, even if they give 4000 nominations, it's very difficult for the CRS cutoff score to fall below 414 (my guess).
If it falls to 414 and they do a draw on May 31st, then it could fall below 410. I don't know how much (we would have to see the released statistics at that date).
Now, if they decide to do 2 back to back draws, it could greatly fall easily to 406 I think (given that the first cutoff is 414 and no higher).

However, they did a maintenance today, so I'm not that optimistic into thinking that they'll do a draw tomorrow. Please pray that I'm wrong, or maybe that the draw takes place on thursday or friday if they don't do it tomorrow.

 

[ivancabrer]

Let's expect 420+ for tomorrow's draw..

Why?, Could you give us an explanation?
I think if they give 3800-4000 ITAs it seems highly unlikely that the score remains above 420. It should fall at least to 419, being pessimist.

 

[andieangel]

Remember the Score falls down depending on how many invitations they give.

Last time (Apr. 28th), this was the headcount for these segments:

411-420 -- 2,003
401-410 -- 3,942

Because of new candidates in the EE, maybe right now there are already more than 3,000 in the 411-420 segment.
So, even if they give 4000 nominations, it's very difficult for the CRS cutoff score to fall below 414 (my guess).
If it falls to 414 and they do a draw on May 31st, then it could fall below 410. I don't know how much (we would have to see the released statistics at that date).
Now, if they decide to do 2 back to back draws, it could greatly fall easily to 406 I think (given that the first cutoff is 414 and no higher).

However, they did a maintenance today, so I'm not that optimistic into thinking that they'll do a draw tomorrow. Please pray that I'm wrong, or maybe that the draw takes place on thursday or friday if they don't do it tomorrow.

Your logic is good! Makes sense! I think if they do back to back draws May can finish with below 406 easily. And also I think that this week's draw it's gonna happen on Thursday , because maybe they want to do a draw on June 1st, before new changes kick in, and that is also Thursday...

 

[andieangel]

Why?, Could you give us an explanation?
I think if they give 3800-4000 ITAs it seems highly unlikely that the score remains above 420. It should fall at least to 419, being pessimist.

Just wanted to ask THE same question!

 

[canada_dreamer]

Your logic is good! Makes sense! I think if they do back to back draws May can finish with below 406 easily. And also I think that this week's draw it's gonna happen on Thursday , because maybe they want to do a draw on June 1st, before new changes kick in, and that is also Thursday...

My gut feelings tell me there will be 3 more draws before the new changes kick in. Two in May and and one on June 1. Most likely there will be a 3 week gap in June.

 

[andieangel]

My gut feelings tell me there will be 3 more draws before the new changes kick in. Two in May and and one on June 1. Most likely there will be a 3 week gap in June.

Good gut feeling!