RAY of HOPE 55th Draw (Predictions)

[jackdawn]

I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw. If you see November 30, 2016 draw, it was 559. This was when, OINP was on full flow.

However, please also factor the withdrawl/rejection rate. If you see David Cohen (Canada Immigration) video, the rejection rate in the paper based applications was around 35%. Due to high scores in 2016, many have cooked up the scores and are declining the ITAs, so that they can come back in the pool and modify the EE profile to have 100% accurate profile.

From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.

Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.

So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.

I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.

Hey Pawshi/ Astral, u ppl have done good analysis and this is what the thread needs.

I more or less arrived at the same figures trying/analyzing to understand the last few draws and when i tried to relate it to last year report i feel that something might b amiss. Can u relate the same math to last year report figures by considering a reasonable increase in no of additions and rejections as u have taken in ur post. I feel the score should go down lower to 400 and low soon.
400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

am i on track or lost some wer?

 

[jackdawn]

At least you got married, I'll probably be single for life :-[

Hahaha guys this is funny. Dont get disheartened, ul get ur ITA and ul get married too

 

[Pawshi]

Hey Jack,

2015 end of year report is not at all relevant except one figure - total active candidates in the pool. Rest all data has been changed due to Nov 19, 2016 changes.

Good number got the 30 or 15 or 50+ scores based on the applicability. My assessment says that the significant numbers of old 370-400 has moved to 400-430.

So as per 2015 report, 13000+ for 400-450 does not make a difference in today's situation. Last year 2016, only one theme was working in express entry, better the IELTS. That too has an effect and 400-450 has been quite crowded.

Also, all those who are exploring canada immigration knows only one criteria - CLB 9 in IELTS. Hence, the old reference of 2015 can not be referenced in today's situation.

What's your view?

 

[jackdawn]

Hey Jack,

2015 end of year report is not at all relevant except one figure - total active candidates in the pool. Rest all data has been changed due to Nov 19, 2016 changes.

Good number got the 30 or 15 or 50+ scores based on the applicability. My assessment says that the significant numbers of old 370-400 has moved to 400-430.

So as per 2015 report, 13000+ for 400-450 does not make a difference in today's situation. Last year 2016, only one theme was working in express entry, better the IELTS. That too has an effect and 400-450 has been quite crowded.

Also, all those who are exploring canada immigration knows only one criteria - CLB 9 in IELTS. Hence, the old reference of 2015 can not be referenced in today's situation.

What's your view?

Oh man ur analysis is bang on. I just missed to account d November changes. That's wer d scores moved and large draws matter
Now d current year report cud throw some light in terms of direction of d score

 

[manvir.singh.parmar]

With PNP's gone for next 3-4 months and LIMA nullified, there is no way the score will go up......

So, EE Applicants with score 400 to 450, our time has arrived....just wait for your turn.

My only doubt is how OINP will handle this situation??

 

[jackdawn]

Assuming that it may take another 6 months for d scores to touch 400 ONIP may keep d threshold at 400

 

[softwaretesting]

It seems cutoff will keep decreasing for some time. At what time do you guys it may start increasing? This year's graduates? PNP like oinp applicants? Any other trigger you can think of?

 

[thepilot]

It seems cutoff will keep decreasing for some time. At what time do you guys it may start increasing? This year's graduates? Any other trigger you can think of?

USA immigrants

 

[thatRossMBA]

At least you got married, I'll probably be single for life :-[

Last 2 draws I had wished I was single instead of married.. :My score without my spouse is 454 and when i add her it goes down to 445..

 

[Pawshi]

Folks,

Remember, any new graduate needs experience to qualify for 67 points. Then only they become eligible. Isnt it?

Second, USA immigrant may have impact as more people would be inclined towards Canada. However, they would have to start and it takes any where three to six months to get into the queue - Transcripts, WES and IELTS. It takes time.

 

[Pawshi]

I personally feel that OINP should lower the criteria to 370+. They also deserve a fair chance.....being compassionate

 

[manvir.singh.parmar]

It seems cutoff will keep decreasing for some time. At what time do you guys it may start increasing? This year's graduates? PNP like oinp applicants? Any other trigger you can think of?

No chance in near future.....

 

[astralsource]

It seems cutoff will keep decreasing for some time. At what time do you guys it may start increasing? This year's graduates? PNP like oinp applicants? Any other trigger you can think of?

Those days are gone now, no triggers anymore. No more MacDonalds issuing LMIA's, no more draws when a couple of PNP nominations could destroy chances for thousands of eligible people that have no connections to provinces or a possibility for a job offer.. so now its our turn.

 

[sunnyvin]

the biggest difference is lima points deduction .. This trend continue score will fall below 400 by July. ..

 

[gff]

Guys,

I´m very happy!

I got my ITA this week, after 10 months of patience in the draw!

Keep your dreams alive!

God bless u all!!!!

See u all in Canada!!!!!