RAY of HOPE 55th Draw (Predictions)

[monnike]

Things never looked so promising!!!

This is great!!

I hope this trends goes on at least until May, when I believe a lot of students complete their degrees and get their points increased.

Also, I think that the current trend will continue for the next months, bringing CRS scores down next draw (feb 22nd) to low 440s (441-444) with 3k+ ITAs,
and then, in March, the 440 mark will be broken!!!!

It just bugs me to think about OINP.... what is in the oven???? If they keep lowering scores, they will force Ontario to make changes to their program. IN addition,
if they keep this trend for too long, not many people will opt for PNPs as they are a more expensive, and longer process for PR.

SO, Are they trying to separate CRS scores 420 and higher through EE only and below 400 through PNPs only??

I just feel like there is a big change or surprise coming regarding PNPs and EE in the next months. Yet, hoping that it does not affect the current trends.

 

[macIndia]

I am at 444, Waiting for ITA :'( .

 

[abhishek_89]

The 54th draw has given a lot of hope to those waiting with CRS points below 450! Being at 440, had almost given up hope on even a PNP from Ontario.
Hopefully the next draw (55th) comes with an ITA. Now, I am being greedy!

 

[Xmg2017]

Good things are coming our way 440s people!!!
I hope cic doesnt stop at 447. Im at 443, feeling excited and nervous at the same time!!!

 

[argieargie]

I am at 444, Waiting for ITA :'( .

Same here : Really hope CIC keeps the trend dropping scores.

 

[Manakhly]

I have CRS 449 and my profile is active and also my job status is active.... but I didn't receive my ITA till now.....so weird although people having 448 already gotten it and already 24 hours has passed....I thought Ill get it as minimum is 447 guess not >< anyone know what might be the reason?

 

[patricia.hple]

I have CRS 449 and my profile is active and also my job status is active.... but I didn't receive my ITA till now.....so weird although people having 448 already gotten it and already 24 hours has passed....I thought Ill get it as minimum is 447 guess not >< anyone know what might be the reason?

Did you activate job bank?

 

[thejkhan]

I have CRS 449 and my profile is active and also my job status is active.... but I didn't receive my ITA till now.....so weird although people having 448 already gotten it and already 24 hours has passed....I thought Ill get it as minimum is 447 guess not >< anyone know what might be the reason?

Check your Junk folder.

 

[KingKurly]

Just like i mentioned in the last hope thread that the cut-off score will go down below 450. February 8 was a historic day for aspiring candidates of Canadian PR. But the big question is, will it continue to go down. From the podcast i watched last weekend, the new 450 will be 425-430 by the end of Q3 2017 and it could go below 400 by the end of Q4 2017. I doubt it will go below 400 but who know! February 22 will be much more important than the Feb 8, that is for sure!

 

[SGtoCAD]

Just like i mentioned in the last hope thread that the cut-off score will go down below 450. February 8 was a historic day for aspiring candidates of Canadian PR. But the big question is, will it continue to go down. From the podcast i watched last weekend, the new 450 will be 425-430 by the end of Q3 2017 and it could go below 400 by the end of Q4 2017. I doubt it will go below 400 but who know! February 22 will be much more important than the Feb 8, that is for sure!

Im definitely looking forward to the draw on feb 22nd. It could make or break us

 

[Pawshi]

They'll stay at 2 draws a month, this extra draw was because they missed one draw in November.

MY FEAR: I am also afraid at one point they will reduce ITA number to 2000-2500 like before from 1500 to 1000-800. They are now filling up the quota and when they get to certain percentage they could slow down a bit.. depends on the number of ITAs

BUT, A BIG but

Considering the quota and clearing of the backlog there should be at least 60.000 ITAs issued through ExpressEntry, and that's minimum (before it was 30.000 ITAs and they said 50% of the quota came from Express Entry so now it should be 60.000 + the quota is higher than in 2016. so even more)

Also we know they started filling quota for 2017. around October (source: CIC guy) so looking at the numbers around 20.000 ITAs for 2017. is already issued (lets say that is 30.000 PR's (because someone said it was 1.5 PR per 1 ITA if I am not mistaken)..

that leaves us with about 30.000 ITAs through EE (45.000 PR's) since they plan 73,700 economic migrants..

+ there is another 30.000 PNP nominations planned (51.000 PNP PR's)..

that makes for another 60.000 ITA's until October 2017. when they will start filling quota for 2018.

Thats my calculation- it makes about 7.000 ITAs per month including PNPs (which is already happening). With this rate we'll hit 400.

Is this right? Am I missing something as usual? If the info about 1.5 PR per ITA is correct, then this might be true. Correct me!

Also if there is another 30.000 ITAs ready for economic immigrants through EE and if we have for example 600 applicants per point, we will exactly land at 400 CRS, and the rest can come through PNP. That means 400 is the new 450.

ps. I failed math once..

I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw. If you see November 30, 2016 draw, it was 559. This was when, OINP was on full flow.

However, please also factor the withdrawl/rejection rate. If you see David Cohen (Canada Immigration) video, the rejection rate in the paper based applications was around 35%. Due to high scores in 2016, many have cooked up the scores and are declining the ITAs, so that they can come back in the pool and modify the EE profile to have 100% accurate profile.

From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.

Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.

So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.

I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.

 

[johnsyk]

Hi Guys,

Earlier my score was 453 but dropped to 422 as I got married 1 month ago. So any chances of CRS dropping to 422 in upcoming months..

Did you not do the MATH before you got married. Marriage has doomed you buddy! LOL ;D

 

[astralsource]

Did you not do the MATH before you got married. Marriage has doomed you buddy! LOL ;D

Hahah.

Hi Guys,

Earlier my score was 453 but dropped to 422 as I got married 1 month ago. So any chances of CRS dropping to 422 in upcoming months..

Yes marriage has that kind of effect sometimes

Yessss there are chances in spite the fact you are now married!

 

[astralsource]

I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw. If you see November 30, 2016 draw, it was 559. This was when, OINP was on full flow.

However, please also factor the withdrawl/rejection rate. If you see David Cohen (Canada Immigration) video, the rejection rate in the paper based applications was around 35%. Due to high scores in 2016, many have cooked up the scores and are declining the ITAs, so that they can come back in the pool and modify the EE profile to have 100% accurate profile.

From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.

Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.

So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.

I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.

I see your point, we get similar results, thats good to know! Thanks

 

[thepilot]

Hi Guys,

Earlier my score was 453 but dropped to 422 as I got married 1 month ago. So any chances of CRS dropping to 422 in upcoming months..

At least you got married, I'll probably be single for life :-[