~~RAY of HOPE 51st Draw~~ (Predictions)

[Almostther]

Your predictions, based on the volumes of ita issued and the respective CRS cut-offs are inconsistent

I suppose, though not sure, that there could be a draw today or Thursday . if this is the case, regular draws in Jan ould begin second week, that is Jan 14

Hi Castillo,

Do you know if they are open this week? I was under the impression that they are closed from Christmas to new year.

 

[Broken Heart]

I don't think there will be any more draws this year. Otherwise why would they have an early draw on the 22nd?!!!

Anyways, again I hope I am wrong and we see a draw tomorrow or Thursday.


Now according to volume, that would be a real mystery, because for 2015 we had a total of 31k ITAs, for 2016 we had almost 34k ITAs.
Now if we say the total is around 35k, for 26 draws that is an average of 1500 ITAs.

The high number of late draws it might be CIC is trying to catch up on the low numbers of ITAs they issued in mid 2016, that was around 700 ITAs for almost 5 months in a row.

So logically, we should expect volume to be between 1500-2000.
From the other hand with the progressive government in place which is trying to make big changes, it might be the case that they decide to keep the high volumes up for a while...!!!

Going back to scores, there is no such thing as numbers higher than 475 were all cleared. Everything depends on number of ITAs. and of course on other people joining the Pool everyday, and PNPs and fresh students, CECs, etc.

Therefore we shouldn't expect first draw to drop. between 470-480 I think. Now as I said earlier, if we have high volume of ITAs that would help, and of course frequent draws (i.e 3 draws in Jan), that would help even further to drop the score even lower i.e. to 460.

 

[jianxia15]

Since I am going to decline my ITA due to receiving early because of the CICs system's problem in counting full years...!!!

Let's do some speculations:

looking back at January 2016, we had 3 draws in one month. Now some people would say that they were trying to include the one they missed from last year's (i.e. 2015). since it is twice a week, a year has 52 weeks, therefore 26 draws a year.

In 2015 we had 23 draws, therefore we can assume that including an extra draw in January 2016 was to make the draws for 2015 equal 24 and be on track, missing only two draws with the excuse that the EE system just started then.

However in 2016, we had 26 draws...!!!, one was only provincial. So this makes me think that we might have a similar plan for January 2017.

My prediction:
Will go back to Wednesdays for draws, so it should be 4th/Jan, 11th and 25th.

Now for scores I am guessing and also looking to past draws, if the ITA numbers stay at 2000 at least, the first draw will stay similar to the last one at around 480, then 470, and finally 468. for the January draws.

If we have larger ITAs issued in these first three draws of January, for example 2700 ITAs. Then the scores should be something like 477, 472, 460.

Of course I am hoping I am wrong, and that the score can go as low as 440 for more people to be included.


Let's hear more predictions guys.

If u r receiving scores in adavnce for full-year working experience, u do not have to decline. Just wait and submit after the date u meet full-year working experience.

 

[Broken Heart]

If u r receiving scores in adavnce for full-year working experience, u do not have to decline. Just wait and submit after the date u meet full-year working experience.

Well according to CIC below, it is not really clear if that's the case, they say your profile is locked when you submit your e-APR, but then they state that the officer will determine if you don't qualify at the time you were issued an ITA...!!!


"Under section A11.2, an officer may not issue a visa to an applicant who did not or does not meet the Express Entry minimum entry criteria (MEC) or did not or does not possess the qualifications for which they received their CRS score at the time when
the Invitation to Apply (ITA) was issued; or
the e-APR was received by IRCC.

When reviewing an application, processing offices must determine if

the applicant possesses the qualifications that they declared in their e-APR, as corroborated by the applicant’s supporting documentation; and
when the applicant submits their e-APR, the information provided in their Express Entry profile has not materially changed to the degree that the applicant would not have been issued an ITA in that round of invitations.
Accordingly, officers should refuse an application under section A11.2 if it is determined that

at the time of the ITA or e-APR, the applicant did not or does not meet the MEC, which includes the requirements of the program to which they were invited to apply; or
the applicant’s recalculated CRS score has fallen below that of the lowest-ranked candidate invited to apply in that round of invitations.
When an applicant submits an e-APR to CIC, the information in their application is locked, and their CRS score at the time of their application is recorded in GCMS."

cic.gc./english/resources/tools/perm/express/refuse.asp

 

[aki1010]

could somebody please guide me as to how much time does it take to get PR after you receive your ITA? does it actually take 6 months or lesser? ? Need to plan few things so asking. .Please tell. .

 

[kryt0n]

could somebody please guide me as to how much time does it take to get PR after you receive your ITA? does it actually take 6 months or lesser? ? Need to plan few things so asking. .Please tell. .

After you get an ita you have 90 days to submit your documents. You can do it in 1 day if you have everything ready but a usual time is 1 month.

The average processing time is 6 months. If your application is simple then it may be done less than that.

There's people who have had it finished in 4 months and a whole thread of people here waiting over 6 months.

Take 6 months as an average.

 

[aki1010]

After you get an ita you have 90 days to submit your documents. You can do it in 1 day if you have everything ready but a usual time is 1 month.

The average processing time is 6 months. If your application is simple then it may be done less than that.

There's people who have had it finished in 4 months and a whole thread of people here waiting over 6 months.

Take 6 months as an average.

thanks kryt0n. .needed to plan about my work here. .hope it doesn't take more than that. .

 

[Batman_is_Real]

anyone expecting draw today .??

 

[kryt0n]

anyone expecting draw today .??

Nah. Updating my profile tonight though.... The first draw of 2017 could be ours!!!!!

 

[Batman_is_Real]

Nah. Updating my profile tonight though.... The first draw of 2017 could be ours!!!!!

471 is should be enough to get ITA I think in next draw.

And I see your score bumped up from 440, also your number of friends is increasing as well.

 

[cjsinngh]

Nah. Updating my profile tonight though.... The first draw of 2017 could be ours!!!!!

I screwed my IELTS Writing exam because I wasnt paying attention to the time lol. Other wise I would have got invitation on december 22.

*regrets* lol

 

[sunchaser]

471 is should be enough to get ITA I think in next draw.

And I see your score bumped up from 440, also your number of friends is increasing as well.

good observation ;D

 

[Castillo]

Hi Castillo,

Do you know if they are open this week? I was under the impression that they are closed from Christmas to new year.
[/quote

Was suspecting given the nominations from Ontario since the 23rd and even 27th ...was wondering why the rush if a draw wasn't imminent!!!!!

 

[omar_ahmed21]

Hi Castillo,

Do you know if they are open this week? I was under the impression that they are closed from Christmas to new year.

Hang tight people. There's one more draw before 2017

 

[narindersahib]

Broken heart,
Have you reviewed your case with registered consultant? As per section11.2, yes officer will decide but would review both the scenerio :- at the time of ITA or eapr. You have not entered any wrong information which u are planning to alter before submitting eapr. So i think you should not decline your ita...