Ray of Hope - 46th Draw

[egoo45]

It seems like they are ramping up the number of invitations issued. I think this the highest number of invitations issued since the beginning of EE.
The questions now would be:
- How many people are in the 470-475 range, 460-470 range?
- Are they going to continue ramping up the number of invitations? Will it be 2000 invitations by next draw?

I understand that no one has the answer and we are all speculating here, but I'm feeling very hopeful and looking forward to the next couple of draws. Hopefully the 450 cutoff is resumed shortly.

 

[epressentry]

Any chance there is another draw next week?

That would be a BONANZA !!!

 

[Caesarpy]

Congrats to all those that finally got an ITA. I'm still sitting at 462, but I admit this draw today was unexpected for me.

I still don't understand why CRS score remains quite close to last draw (484 vs 475) even raising the number of ITAs (1500 to 1800). Does anyone know if it has to be with PNP?

Is it possible another draw next Wednesday? 1800 ITAs again?

Anyway I think this are great news and hope the trend remains this way.

I think in the range between 450 and 475, there are much more people than the range between 475 and 485. So... it's more difficult to see the cut off continue coming down...

By the way, I'm sitting at 451, considering retaking IELTS...

 

[Wolverine17]

Sitting at 461 ,might increase in few weeks,is there any hope for me soon

 

[kryt0n]

At that horrible mid score of 440. Who knows... Maybe this year

 

[jianxia15]

It is really a ray of hope!

 

[johnjkjk]

And most people where so wrong here about huge bottleneck of candidates in the pool between CRS 481-482, some claimed to be 5-6K applicants with that score. Now i really have high hope for next draw.

It was correct. The bottleneck was 200 x 12 draws =2.4k in the 470-481 range. This draw has shown that more than 1000 were sitting in the 475-481 range. There may be perhaps up to 1500 in the 470-474 range, which should get cleared in the next few draws if ITAs remain high.

 

[astralsource]

omg omg omg great news

 

[Dedicated]

It was correct. The bottleneck was 200 x 12 draws =2.4k in the 470-481 range. This draw has shown that more than 1000 were sitting in the 475-481 range. There may be perhaps up to 1500 in the 470-474 range, which should get cleared in the next few draws if ITAs remain high.

Come on...
It was stated that there were about 3000 at 481, not 470-481.
So that assumption was incorrect.

 

[thourb]

I posted a bit of an analysis in another thread which I don't think can be far off on the basis of this draw:

An interesting thing that I noticed from that presentation (https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf) is that CIC seem to have been a bit more transparent with their statistics than they are elsewhere - by breaking down CRS scores held by people on March 28th 2016 into 10's rather than 50's. I can only approximate this as the numbers aren't given, only a bar chart without the underlying data - but I'll give it a shot. Bear in mind that the statstics for everyone over 470 CRS reset 5 days prior to that snapshot, as on 23rd March there was a draw with a 470 cut off. It's not an especially large sample on which to base my estimates, but it's about the best I can find. I'm also using the 2015 year end report to assist with my calculations.

In my estimate, it seems that on 28/03 approximately 0.1% of the entire pool had scores in the 270s. On 3rd January there were 60,042 candidates in the pool. Assuming that the numbers remain broadly stable throughout, That would mean that in that 5 day period, approximately 60 people entered the pool with a score in the 470s. The number of people in the 460's is broadly similar, but the number of people who entered the pool in the 480's appears to be around a quarter of the number. Let's be generous and assume half so perhaps only 30 people.

There have been no draws below 470 since April 20th and since then there have been 176 days. On that basis I can approximate that there are 1056 people currently backlogged in the 480s (likely between 480 and 481) and 2112 people with scores in the 470s. That analysis puts away any suggestions that there are thousands of people waiting in the 480s like some are suggesting on here. A very small percentage seem to get that high a score. The difficulty is (and always has been) that with relatively modestly sized draws where half of the draw goes to those with PNP or LMIA there are few places which can be allocated to those based solely on CRS. I'm optimistic that when they change the points given for LMIAs that we will see a reasonable drop in the required CRS score.

Historically, on the data we have available, we know that 60% of ITAs go to those with PNPs or LMIAs. This is on the basis that there is an average 1350 ITAs given per draw (this is all based on 2015 data). So per draw we can expect 810 (on average) LMIA/PNP holders will get nomination. Thus in today's draw, I won't have been far off my estimates (likely a few hundred out) - 1800 ITAs of which 800 approx PNP/LMIA and approximately 1000 non LMIA/PNP. It's actually fairly likely that there were fewer LMIA/PNP in this draw (perhaps only half of the 810 average) due to this draw being only one week on from the previous draw. If that were the case then my guess is probably spot on - 1800 ITAs, 1400 of which have no PNP, 1000 in the 480s and 500 in the 470s.

On this basis, if we get another draw of around 1800 in a fortnight I would expect that 800 of those would be 600+, very few in the 480's (I expect no more than 60) and then perhaps around 900-1000 (around half of my earlier estimate now that much of any backlog has been cleared) in the 470s. All in all, if we get another draw of 1800 I expect scores to mostly clear the 470s and CRS will be in the range 469-472. If CRS drops down to 1500 I can't see it going below 472.

Will be really interested to see whether this rudimentary estimation that I've made based on very approximate data has any standing in reality, but on the basis of this past draw I'm pretty much spot on to what I'd expected.

 

[astralsource]

This is simply awesome. Congratulations to all who got the ITA. We have some ray of hope. I think, this is the biggest draw ever. All folks with 481 especially to Damah Sirah, who has got ITA for sure. Also, happy for Raj from OINP PNP thread. He must have got the ITA.

Wish you all good luck on the next steps.

Please pray for us with score in 430s....My score is 434.

Thank you,
Pawshi

We'll get there dont worry

 

[thourb]

Come on...
It was stated that there were about 3000 at 481, not 470-481.
So that assumption was incorrect.

I agree. Many (but certainly not all) had the opinion that there were many thousands backlogged at 481 points as "that is the maximum you can get with perfect age, experience, masters degree and language". I've always argued that 481 is a very tough score to reach on that basis - even native English speakers often fail to get max score on IELTS (I would know as I work on IELTS exams) - people don't have perfect spelling and grammar which costs them points.

 

[kryt0n]

I concur - native English and my spelling leaves something to be desired. I blame autocorrect.

 

[Shivangi89]

Congrats to everyone who got ITA with 45th draw, for rest of us is a waiting game again. I'm at CRS 474, hopefully next draw will do for me, unless they do major changes.

I'm on the exact same boat! Let's hope that 46th draw is the one for more people like us!!

 

[mukulabd]

I think the next draw will be 2 weeks later. Last week's draw was a result of that missing draw in the previous week.