Ray of Hope - 44th Draw

[johnsyk]

This thread is highjacked Cry Cry Cry

This thread will be back to its intended topic when the 44th draw is (hopefully!) out tomorrow! I think it is going to be a high score. Loads of PNPs. 3 weeks break. How I wish I am wrong! If they can break the 481 bottle neck tomorrow, I think that will be very very good news! I doubt though.

 

[bala1980]

Is the draw going to happen today (Tuesday) ?

 

[DelPiero07]

Most likely on Wednesday.

But what the heck do I know.

8)

 

[water2wine]

Are we looking into this Wednesday/Friday or next Wednesday?

 

[Kimberly007]

When will the score drop down to about 470. hopefully there will be a draw tomorow

 

[thestunner316]

OMGGG... man greed sometimes brings out the worst in people, without us actually realising it... i have seen so many threads with CICs ganging up against FSW saying they are better candidates, and FSW hitting back against CICs saying they are better.... now this - PNP is unfair, this is unfair, that is unfair... well you know guys - life is unfair, gotta deal with whatever cards that have been handed to us... most of us are in a privileged position, for more than 50% of the population in the world even applying to a country like canada is a "dream"

answering fatanis question - if you are 45, with ielts 6 bands, you will probably be lucky to get 300 points, OINPs requirement was 400.. and for you to degrade them by saying "what will they contribute to the economy" is in extremely poor taste... BTW if we are lucky enough to move to canada - be prepared for "naturalised canadians are better than immigrants" debates also...

EE has its flaws, the govt realises that, and they are working towards improving it... i have not come across a single "perfect" system (not even counting immigration) , everything has its flaws... for EE the greatest flaw (which even the people who have designed it are admitting the same) is the LMIA system, where if you have job offer, you are pretty much guaranteed ITA... the drawback of this is the 2 largest pools of applicants who have been given ITA are cooks and butchers (or something of that sort) which wasnt the original goal of the EE, hence they are going back to the drawing board to see how to rectify it...

btw canada doesnt owe us anything, and as of today - we dont owe anything to them either...

regarding draws, i expect a very high number of ITAs tomorrow (if the draw happens tomorrow) around 1500-1600, but CRS will be high also - around 485 i think (crystal ball analysis) ,

 

[thestunner316]

and i saw someones analysis, mentioning they expect CRS to come down to around 450 next year, i think thats a very fair analysis.. will explain what it said..

usually PNPs and LMIAs are active from january onwards, by the time they receive documentation, analyse, process etc it will be like may/june or something before they start nominating people... so when the draws are 490+ or 530+ = 90% of candidates are PNP or LMIA ones... (actually even more than 90, 95% i think)

i would expect PNPs to stop sending ITAs by lets say nov end, so dec and jan is low activity period... so between jan to may i would think that the CRS number would fall or be quite low... case in point if you check draws this year - feb - april was the period with the lowest scores...

if you ask me personally - i would be amazed if CRS score ever falls below 450... so if you are under that, i would look at every option to improve score..

answering OINP question - they might restart in november, but if they dont have NOC specific requirement, then i would say they will probably increase cut off to 420 or something... they cant keep it too high coz otherwise people wont opt for their program and wait for direct ITA...

 

[Sluffy]

usually PNPs and LMIAs are active from january onwards, by the time they receive documentation, analyse, process etc it will be like may/june or something before they start nominating people... so when the draws are 490+ or 530+ = 90% of candidates are PNP or LMIA ones... (actually even more than 90, 95% i think)

i would expect PNPs to stop sending ITAs by lets say nov end, so dec and jan is low activity period... so between jan to may i would think that the CRS number would fall or be quite low... case in point if you check draws this year - feb - april was the period with the lowest scores...

PNP start opening on November - see last year OINP, New Brunswick, PEI, etc, and continue until quota is filled.
Agree that majority of people in high-score draws are from PNP and LMIA - as it's obvious.
Scores in Jan-March were low because the quotas for 2015 were used as a target number, and in March quotas for 2016 were announced and decreased.
According to CIC data release, in Q1& Q2 they admitted 52k of people (and the target number was 58.4k for the whole year of 2016), so they let just PNPs and LMIAs to proceed - that's why the score was high and the draw was small.
And keep in mind the backlog.

 

[vensak]

I do not think that there will be a significant pause when it comes to the PNP nomination unless provinces have already exhausted their 2016 quotas.
What was valid at the start (that they need some time to evaluate the file and decide) is not valid anymore.

The system has started since 2015 and most provinces have already adjusted to the new system and are taking in batch of applicants which they process during whole year at a certain speed (here it is questionable if the speed is according to their free resources or they have simple monthly quotas which they try to keep). If they see, that they have just small batch of applicants left they reopen to get in another batch.

So with that we will see people with provincial nomination all over the year. Where still small anomalies can happen is most likely December (maybe November) and January.
Normaly provinces do take higher amount of applicants than needed as they expect certain drop rate (rejected applicants), so if the batch is very smooth (very low rejection rate), they will use up their quotas sooner than expected so the end of the year can be weak on nomination. And consequently January can be stronger on nomination as they can prepare more files.

However as we have different provinces with different aplicants and systems, all over such influence will be low.
As a result we can count with PNP as a stable part of application pool.

Good news is that the anomaly from the end of 2015 (with 600+) will not happen anymore (at that time higher amount of PNP was handed over). But the bad news is that what we see now is more like long term trend. Unless they will significantly increase amount of ITA, the trend will be 470+

 

[thestunner316]

I do not think that there will be a significant pause when it comes to the PNP nomination unless provinces have already exhausted their 2016 quotas.
What was valid at the start (that they need some time to evaluate the file and decide) is not valid anymore.

The system has started since 2015 and most provinces have already adjusted to the new system and are taking in batch of applicants which they process during whole year at a certain speed (here it is questionable if the speed is according to their free resources or they have simple monthly quotas which they try to keep). If they see, that they have just small batch of applicants left they reopen to get in another batch.

So with that we will see people with provincial nomination all over the year. Where still small anomalies can happen is most likely December (maybe November) and January.
Normaly provinces do take higher amount of applicants than needed as they expect certain drop rate (rejected applicants), so if the batch is very smooth (very low rejection rate), they will use up their quotas sooner than expected so the end of the year can be weak on nomination. And consequently January can be stronger on nomination as they can prepare more files.

However as we have different provinces with different aplicants and systems, all over such influence will be low.
As a result we can count with PNP as a stable part of application pool.

Good news is that the anomaly from the end of 2015 (with 600+) will not happen anymore (at that time higher amount of PNP was handed over). But the bad news is that what we see now is more like long term trend. Unless they will significantly increase amount of ITA, the trend will be 470+

valid points

like i mentioned it was an observation, but with potential changes coming to the points system itself, it will be interesting to see how things pan out from here.. for now = waiting for the draw tomorrow

 

[DamhaSirah]

So tomorrow is the day when 481 bottleneck will be broken hopefully InshAllah...

 

[mandy87]

I am waiting at 480... received my AINP as well but waiting for express entry so that can apply for open work permit as my office is going to close in November so can not apply work permit extension expires on 30th Oct because I will be receiving close work permit from AINP

any suggestions

 

[Shivangi89]

I really hope that the score is 470-473 atleast this draw. Fingers crossed for #44

 

[Eswaran]

I think 1500+ applications will be called tomorrow as Minister hinted that the substantial increase in the # of application drawn going forward in order to reach the annual target. The another thing is, 600 plus PNP nominated in end of September by one of the west side provinces. The statement was unclear whether these candidates are called in last draw or yet to be called. If my guess is correct, it is yet to be called and minimum score would be 480+
since 1) number of days between current and last draws 21 days rather than 15 days 2) the news came in 27th of sept so 600+ are yet be called 3) the pattern of keeping the min score is 480+ for a last few months.


Again, it is all speculations, fingers crossed!

I am holding in 450+

 

[goldencanada]

Any guesses on how many profiles are active within 450-490 bracket?