Ray of Hope - 162nd Draw - All Programs

[D'trox]

@13nitinsharma
Hey,
Just wanted to reach out and see if any one has received any approvals during this COVID period. Its been almost 8 month since my application, so just wanted to see if anyone else has received an approval.
By the way I have ordered the GCMS notes as you recommended.
Thanks!

Regards

 

[Timbuktu_14]

@13nitinsharma
Hey,
Just wanted to reach out and see if any one has received any approvals during this COVID period. Its been almost 8 month since my application, so just wanted to see if anyone else has received an approval.
By the way I have ordered the GCMS notes as you recommended.
Thanks!

Regards

Just wait for the notes to get to you.

 

[13nitinsharma]

@13nitinsharma
Hey,
Just wanted to reach out and see if any one has received any approvals during this COVID period. Its been almost 8 month since my application, so just wanted to see if anyone else has received an approval.
By the way I have ordered the GCMS notes as you recommended.
Thanks!

Regards

All the PPR emails are on hold currently. No one has received so far. However, people have reported that their medicals have been extended automatically for another 1 year from the backend.

Good that you ordered notes, you will definitely get to see more accurate update on your application after reviewing notes.

 

[13nitinsharma]

6-Jul-20	FSW
601-1200	360
501-600	652
491-500	483
481-490	1,600
471-480	4,561	Cut-off: 478	No. of ITAs: 3900
	Sum: 7656	Candidates left: 3756
4-Aug-20	FSW
601-1200	519
501-600	390
491-500	239
481-490	647
471-480	5,065	Cut-off: 476	No. of ITAs: 3900
	Sum: 6860	Candidates left: 2960	New candidates: 6800-3756=3104
31-Aug-20	FSW
601-1200	364
501-600	340
491-500	264
481-490	655
471-480	4,482	Cut-off: 475	No. of ITAs: 4200
	6105	Candidates left:1905	New candidates: 6105-2960=3145

Over the past two months, about 3100 new candidates entered the pool every month. Even though the data size is very small to generalize it, however, if this trend were to continue, the CRS cut-off should be declining in the coming draws to come. On the last draw, there were about 1900 candidates left with CRS score above 471. Now assuming the trend will continue for next two months, there will be about 6200 new candidates in next two months. Therefore, the total number of candidates in the pool over next two months is about 8000. Since 3900 candidates are generally invited every month, there is a great chance that the CRS cut-off will be inching toward 470 by that time.

Disclaimer: I have completely discarded the CEC draws and the candidates pulled out in those draws for my model.

Good to see your analysis, +1.

My few cents, there have been back to back OINP, SINP & other PNP draws (since July end) so once the nominations are issued by these states (expect from next month onward), you will see the influx of more applications in the pool again & hence flow of applications will increase with no much changes to CRS score. So, the chances of low CRS score is highly unlikely in rest of this year (except, if the all program draws are conducted every fortnightly).

 

[D'trox]

All the PPR emails are on hold currently. No one has received so far. However, people have reported that their medicals have been extended automatically for another 1 year from the backend.

Good that you ordered notes, you will definitely get to see more accurate update on your application after reviewing notes.

Sounds good!
Thank you!

 

[akhil994]

So even if I get ITA before my IELTS expire, I still have to submit all my documents before November 8? Will my IELTS still expire if I submit documents after IELTS expiration date? Because I thought your results freeze once you receive ITA.

Only your age is frozen at ITA. Rest all of the documents have to be valid till you submit your documents. Do not make the mistake of submitting your documents with expired IELTS results., your profile will be rejected

 

[Sharanm7]

Can anyone decode why there was a 4200 invite draw that too for the least preferred "All Programs" category?

 

[miami_beach]

Good to see your analysis, +1.

My few cents, there have been back to back OINP, SINP & other PNP draws (since July end) so once the nominations are issued by these states (expect from next month onward), you will see the influx of more applications in the pool again & hence flow of applications will increase with no much changes to CRS score. So, the chances of low CRS score is highly unlikely in rest of this year (except, if the all program draws are conducted every fortnightly).

I don't think that will significantly affect all-program CRS cut-off because PNP candidates are pulled out of the pool with CEC-PNP draws as well. So it all depends on when their applications are processed whether before a CEC-PNP draw or an all-program draw.

 

[Therodmg]

6-Jul-20	FSW
601-1200	360
501-600	652
491-500	483
481-490	1,600
471-480	4,561	Cut-off: 478	No. of ITAs: 3900
	Sum: 7656	Candidates left: 3756
4-Aug-20	FSW
601-1200	519
501-600	390
491-500	239
481-490	647
471-480	5,065	Cut-off: 476	No. of ITAs: 3900
	Sum: 6860	Candidates left: 2960	New candidates: 6800-3756=3104
31-Aug-20	FSW
601-1200	364
501-600	340
491-500	264
481-490	655
471-480	4,482	Cut-off: 475	No. of ITAs: 4200
	6105	Candidates left:1905	New candidates: 6105-2960=3145

Over the past two months, about 3100 new candidates entered the pool every month. Even though the data size is very small to generalize it, however, if this trend were to continue, the CRS cut-off should be declining in the coming draws to come. On the last draw, there were about 1900 candidates left with CRS score above 471. Now assuming the trend will continue for next two months, there will be about 6200 new candidates in next two months. Therefore, the total number of candidates in the pool over next two months is about 8000. Since 3900 candidates are generally invited every month, there is a great chance that the CRS cut-off will be inching toward 470 by that time.

Disclaimer: I have completely discarded the CEC draws and the candidates pulled out in those draws for my model.

Bro, I've got a similar table to follow up the draws and I could get to the same conclusions yourself.

 

[pallavirao]

I am 443 and EE profile expires in Nov 2020
sigh!

 

[Limitless]

Bro, I've got a similar table to follow up the draws and I could get to the same conclusions yourself.

What is your conclusion?

 

[Therodmg]

What is your conclusion?

Draw points will be dropping to in the next rounds. Instead of going up as some people in this topic said. We could expect a cutoff on the 474 points next FSW round.

 

[Limitless]

Draw points will be dropping to in the next rounds. Instead of going up as some people in this topic said. We could expect a cutoff on the 474 points next FSW round.

I agree with U that there will be a reduction in crs. That's also what the person who simulated CRS scores with the table also said. Although I do not believe the next draw with dive as low as 470. But I believe there is hope for those with 470 if the draw continues in d same climate it has.

 

[Limitless]

I am 443 and EE profile expires in Nov 2020
sigh!

443 CEC?

 

[ya222]

Can anyone decode why there was a 4200 invite draw that too for the least preferred "All Programs" category?

It means they are interested in inviting more people for PR but least interested in processing their application with biometric service disruption. They also stopped issuing PPR and collection of biometrics for inlands. So I wonder if they are even going to touch outland applications for now.