Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

[jrossi]

You have good exposure to French! I'm not exactly sure but I think getting CLB5 fetches 1 CRS for each module of TEF so you have a chance of increasing your score by 4 points, better to check this first.

I'm also at 469, if the draw size increases from the next draw onward, we might have a chance to get through, hoping and praying for this to happen.

Yep, CLB5-6 provides 1 point, and CLB7 gives 3 points. But what I meant was that for reading (only!) I think I already would have what is necessary for CLB5. I’m definitely not ready to get CLB5 on listening/speaking/writing.

Once I’m ready for CLB5-6, I’ll check how cutoff is performing and then I’ll decide wether 4 extra points will be enough or if I really need the extra 12.

 

[vvik33]

Usually twice a year the draw is dedicated exclusively to FSW candidates only, and these draws invite no more than 500-700 people. So, when a FSW draw happens, the pool of "actual" candidates doesn't change for an entire period of 4 weeks, and this makes the cutoff jump, usually, around 10 points.

I think you mean FST (federal skilled trades).

 

[jrossi]

I think you mean FST (federal skilled trades).

Yeah! My mistake! Sorry

 

[zee90999]

Yeah! My mistake! Sorry

Lol ... I thought I was getting it wrong ... thanks for the correction @vvik33

 

[indianstudent96]

Even if there is an FST in april/may, couldn't it be possible that the cic plans to just play with the tie breaker and keep the cut-off reasonable and possibly bring the cut-off's down subsequently?

something like very short tie-breakers for lower cut-offs?

I just get this feeling since the last draw had a very unusual tie-breaker. It was almost like cic was cleaning out the pool of people above 471.

I know this must sound too optimistic, but just a thought.

People seem to not understand how these draws work. When they have a draw for 'n' number of invitations, say 3400 for example, they invite the top 3400 candidates. The cut-off score that you see is the score of the applicant with the lowest rank (3400th rank). Let's assume that 472 is the cut-off score and there are more than 200 candidates with that score, but only one spot for that score, the candidate who created their profile earlier than others will get the ITA, this is the tie-breaker time.

By this logic, ITA scores 'really' fluctuate only when the pool size varies.

Let's say CIC reduces the pool size to 1500, the score will get really high like 500+.

As long as the draws have a consistent pool size and intervals (2 weeks), and new candidates with scores no more than the current trend, The scores will be consistent as well. Personally, I don't think the scores are going to drop below 450 ever again due to the sheer competition.

 

[abbieh]

People seem to not understand how these draws work. When they have a draw for 'n' number of invitations, say 3400 for example, they invite the top 3400 candidates. The cut-off score that you see is the score of the applicant with the lowest rank (3400th rank). Let's assume that 472 is the cut-off score and there are more than 200 candidates with that score, but only one spot for that score, the candidate who created their profile earlier than others will get the ITA, this is the tie-breaker time.

By this logic, ITA scores 'really' fluctuate only when the pool size varies.

Let's say CIC reduces the pool size to 1500, the score will get really high like 500+.

As long as the draws have a consistent pool size and intervals (2 weeks), and new candidates with scores no more than the current trend, The scores will be consistent as well. Personally, I don't think the scores are going to drop below 450 ever again due to the sheer competition.

Can you clarify what you mean by the scores will remain consistent?

If the number invited stays at 3,400, are you saying that the scores not reduce even if it is by two points?

Jan 8: We has 473 (3,400)

Jan 22 : We had 471 (3,400)

Feb 5th: I think the score might drop by at least two points looking at the trend and maintaining the (3,400)

What do you think?

 

[jrossi]

Can you clarify what you mean by the scores will remain consistent?

If the number invited stays at 3,400, are you saying that the scores not reduce even if it is by two points?

Jan 8: We has 473 (3,400)

Jan 22 : We had 471 (3,400)

Feb 5th: I think the score might drop by at least two points looking at the trend and maintaining the (3,400)

What do you think?

I think it's unlikely for it to drop 2 points, since the previous draw just scratched the surface of the profiles with 471 (since the tie-brake date was set to almost 1 year ago). Also, considering we haven't clear people with 470 and 469 points since Mid-december, it's almost sure that these bands are well populated right now, and therefore won't be emptied so easily.
My bet is:

If the number of candidates in the range of 450-600 continues to increases by about 1,000 per draw and we continue with 3,400 ITAs: 471-472

If the number of people in the range of 450-600 slows down to <500 new candidates in this draw and the number of ITAs increases to 3,600: 470-471 (maybe 469, but probably only a very small fraction of the candidates with that score).

 

[abbieh]

I think it's unlikely for it to drop 2 points, since the previous draw just scratched the surface of the profiles with 471 (since the tie-brake date was set to almost 1 year ago). Also, considering we haven't clear people with 470 and 469 points since Mid-december, it's almost sure that these bands are well populated right now, and therefore won't be emptied so easily.
My bet is:

If the number of candidates in the range of 450-600 continues to increases by about 1,000 per draw and we continue with 3,400 ITAs: 471-472

If the number of people in the range of 450-600 slows down to <500 new candidates in this draw and the number of ITAs increases to 3,600: 470-471 (maybe 469, but probably only a very small fraction of the candidates with that score).

What is your prediction for Feb 5th

I am predicting 469

 

[indianstudent96]

Can you clarify what you mean by the scores will remain consistent?

If the number invited stays at 3,400, are you saying that the scores not reduce even if it is by two points?

Jan 8: We has 473 (3,400)

Jan 22 : We had 471 (3,400)

Feb 5th: I think the score might drop by at least two points looking at the trend and maintaining the (3,400)

What do you think?

When I said consistent, I meant the range. Right now, the range is more or less 469-475, and it has been this way due to the things mentioned earlier.

Unfortunately, it doesn't work the way you think. What if we have had more candidates with 470-475 score entering the pool since the last draw?

No one can guess the density of candidates per score without CIC releasing it. I wish they had classified it on 10-point increments instead of broadly classifying 451-600, which is not helpful at all, now that candidates under 450 don't stand a chance.

Again, the two most important factors to consider are the draw size and the number of candidates with 470+ scores entering the pool.

If the draw size increases and the number of candidates with 470+ scores keep up with it, the cut-off won't change much either.

So, making an educated guess, my prediction is between 469 and 474. I agree it's a broad range, but I am realistic here.

 

[jrossi]

470-471

What is your prediction for Feb 5th

I am predicting 469

470-471

If we get 3900 ITAs, then maybe 469

 

[Sudhakar92]

Sounds good. I also just started French classes.

Online or face to face training ?

 

[dayocanny]

Caution;long text below
today i will tell you an interesting story , a story of hardwork , of optimism and courage . I was here in the 127 ray of hope where my dream was broking , i believed that i had 469 point , but indeed my points were only 455 , at this time i had 2 choices either to join ever 2 weeks rays of hope and wait score todrop to 455 while knowing that its hard , and observing others getting their ITA and continu asking and crying in the forum ''when score will get down'' '' will score get down to 455'' , or try to improve my score by studying all the possibilities to do that , offcorse because i am a hardworking man i choose the second option. BUt the biggest question was how to improve my score so i can compete and have an ITA , i had already a master ^ i have a MD with 7 years but its considerated as a master ^ i have already clb 10 in french , so my solution was to learn english an attend an IELTS and i did that i took intensif english courses , i work already 10 hours per day , i added to those hard 10 hours , 5 hours of studying english per days to 2 full months . I attend 18 january session and yesterday i got clb 7 , so my score increased to 485 . take my story like an advice to never drop your hand , fix your objectif , and know that the only way to realise your dream is by hardworking.

welldone. I understand how much work you must have put in. I did the same too but in my case it was French as I had already maxed out English. It's hard but rewarding.

 

[dayocanny]

I did study french while I was in university, between 2008 and 2010. At that time, I believe I achieved a B1- level, but after that, I never studied french again. So, I can't say I'm starting from scratch, I certainly remember the meaning of the top 200 most used words, but things such as Verbs conjugations and prepositions were completely vanished from my memory. Also, a benefit that I have is the fact that french has a many similarities with Portuguese, which is my native language. I wouldn't say it's an exaggeration to state that I could achieve a CLB5 in reading with 1 month or so of study, simply because there are many words that are very similar.

Good. When you are about writing the exam, I suggest you join the Facebook group "comment se preparer pour TEF". I found it helpful.

 

[LizelleW]

INTERNAL TRACKER LIZELLEW

Updated (February 3, 2020 post #770)


475+ (Total: 3) – leblord: 485 | mslat92: 482 | kileengao: 479 |

470+ (Total: 12) – lightspeed97: 474 | Dhan09: 472 | js91: 471 | slayyy: 471 | abbieh: 471 | p.ghasemi: 471 | Usagi17: 470 | Zee90999: 470 | gobsaini: 470 | guruguru1989: 470 | Sheryar: 470 | YiHello: 470

465+ (Total: 35) – jrossi: 469 | seadrag0n: 469 | VaniRohit: 469 | yORha_anDrOId: 468 | quilleroarg: 468 | remedy3434: 468 | Tranvirk: 468 | Anish Nanda: 468 | Aelhajj89: 468 | KK_THE_GREAT: 468 | Amiz: 468 | Sunilneha: 468 | cshetna: 468 | Khushi dhanoa: 468 | callebe: 468 | Moe.chattha: 467 | sri8707: 467 | Cookie13: 467 | m.q.z90: 467 | Lazybug: 467 | yeshi209: 467 | DrSeaun: 467 | Jan.19: 467 | mvneema10: 467 | SUMIL: 467 | shailu44: 467 | Lum: 467 | LizelleW: 466 | hkabz: 466 | JiBhanguJi: 466 | Ortega: 466 | Dipanshu: 466 | Rubinadhaliwal: 465 | Jazzpanag: 465 | I am Rohit: 465

460+ (Total: 11) – Ujaved21: 464 | Rohan21: 463 | contactsarab: 463 | terez1: 462 | bambisp: 461 | Richy1989john: 461 | Jasiko: 460 | bahariesmoon88: 460 | Akrial: 460 | aj534160: 460 | Tribhuvan: 460

455+ (Total: 9) – chouku: 459 | scorpionrishu: 459 | {k3t@n}: 457 | ozzyess: 456 | asksharelearn: 456 | kyoussef: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | Rohanisha: 455

450+ (Total: 1) – Apoorva_1987: 452

400+ (Total: 2) – vvik33: 449 | rajapanesar: 417



If you would like to be added to the tracker, please reply with your score.

 

[asksharelearn]

People seem to not understand how these draws work. When they have a draw for 'n' number of invitations, say 3400 for example, they invite the top 3400 candidates. The cut-off score that you see is the score of the applicant with the lowest rank (3400th rank). Let's assume that 472 is the cut-off score and there are more than 200 candidates with that score, but only one spot for that score, the candidate who created their profile earlier than others will get the ITA, this is the tie-breaker time.

By this logic, ITA scores 'really' fluctuate only when the pool size varies.

Let's say CIC reduces the pool size to 1500, the score will get really high like 500+.

As long as the draws have a consistent pool size and intervals (2 weeks), and new candidates with scores no more than the current trend, The scores will be consistent as well. Personally, I don't think the scores are going to drop below 450 ever again due to the sheer competition.

Thank you for that reply. I clearly had a wrong idea of the cut-off and tie-breaker.