Ray of Hope - 131st Draw

[WarHammer]

They wouldn't care about keeping the score high. Why would they? All they would care about is allowing only the top layer of the people who applied. The interest to apply to canada has simply increased recently. It's just a cascading effect. This can be seen from the overall pool size which ballooned recently. Went from 100k to 130k now.

I myself have seen increased applications from the people who have Masters in the US(I'm in the US). When I went to get my police verification done for my stay in the US, the police officer asked me why there were so many people coming to him for the verification recently.
There is a marked increase in the interest to apply to Canada from the people in the US because of the increasing uncertainty of H1B and because you can get a PR without any strings attached in Canada. People are using Canada as a backup/safer choice to the US.

When I had gone for my finger printing for FBI clearance, the front desk agent joked they introduced the online verification portal last year precisely because they were so many applications coming in all of a sudden ! I thought she was joking but now come to think of it maybe not !

 

[gabi1984]

Those who are expecting ITA (Congratulations) - please can you share checklist of things to do / gather for submission? (Like PCC, Medicals etc.)

 

[tjsecondtry]

When I had gone for my finger printing for FBI clearance, the front desk agent joked they introduced the online verification portal last year precisely because they were so many applications coming in all of a sudden ! I thought she was joking but now come to think of it maybe not !

There was a very intimidating guard at the place we went. Ready to throw out people without appointments, like they were being mobbed, except we were the only ones there. We are very careful NOT to explain why we want to move to Canada.

 

[13nitinsharma]

PREDICTION FOR TODAY'S DRAW:

ITA’s: 3,900
CRS: 469 - 472

GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!

CRS score of lowest-ranked candidate invited: 472

Congratulations guys who got ITAs today!

 

[chemistesa]

Is there a target to pass the last year’s ITA number this year?

 

[Dheana90]

@Dheana90, waiting for your calculated predictions

Dear @Lazybug , below is my calculation for 27th Nov draw:

After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)
441-450= 9,120

Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28
471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675 (486+189)people/score


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 8, 2019
CRS score:
601-1,200 =757
451-600 =14,180
441-450 =9,060


It means in 9 days from Oct 30th to Nov 8th, there where:
601-1,200 = 84 profile/day (757/9days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (14,180-12,009= 2,171/9days)

441-450 = 9,060-9,120= -60. For this eange we gonna use previous number which is 15profiles per day.


So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,177(757+420(84x5days))
451-600=15,385(14,180+1,205(241x5d)
441-450= 9,135(9,060+75(15x5days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,376profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,376/31=109profile/score


After 13th Nov draw with 3,600 ITA issued and the cut off 472, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -1,177)
451-600 =12,962(15,385-2,423)
441-450= 9,135

Note: As cut off was 472, it means that the 12,962 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-4672 only.

472 score = 273
465-471=298(189+109)people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1176(84x14days)
451-600=16,336(12,962+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,345(9,135+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score

With 3,600 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 469-471
3,600 minus:
-1,176(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-273(of 472 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-298(of 471 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-298(of 470 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-247(of 298 of 469 left after 13th Nov draw).

 

[zagcollins]

I don't believe there is a strategy to keep the CRS high. There is a target number of people that the government wants to immigrate over the course of the year. Based on the the number of people accepting their ITAs and the number of people included in each PR application that results from an ITA, the government can estimate how many openings are left for the year. The number of ITAs offered directly reflect the number that they believe will allow them to achieve their immigration goals.

Any patterns we think we see or theories we have are overcome by the number of PR applications received and the number of dependents on those applications, and the number the government approves and the number of dependents approved. Perhaps we can encourage the government to release those statistics so that we can understand the true facts.

I think there is a strategy in place to keep the CRS high. Our beloved PM, in his winning speech, did briefly mention that he enjoys the conspiracy posts on CV a lot, and it's one of his favorite pastimes. So, keeping the CRS high is directly linked to his post 6 pm entertainment!

 

[Victor8892]

I am at 464, will lose 5 points on Nov 26

feeling hopeless. Can jump to 470 with max IELTS. Should I go for it?

467 still stands a good chance by year end or early 2020. Don’t panic and I sincerely wish you get your ITA ASAP.

how about 461, I need to get my phd to get additional 15 points, which would take another 2 months

 

[Rockybee]

Hi guys! So I did not receive an ITA as my score is 471. However my open work permit expires on the 24th of November. Does that mean I’m no longer eligible to be in the express entry pool? Especially since a valid work permit isn’t a criteria as far as one’s score is concerned. I’m so glad I found this forum. It’s been a tremendous resource to me, I only wish I found it earlier. I may not be in this predicament.

 

[a-imperator]

I think there is a strategy in place to keep the CRS high. Our beloved PM, in his winning speech, did briefly mention that he enjoys the conspiracy posts on CV a lot, and it's one of his favorite pastimes. So, keeping the CRS high is directly linked to his post 6 pm entertainment!

He did? Can you post a link to this ?

 

[a-imperator]

Hi guys! So I did not receive an ITA as my score is 471. However my open work permit expires on the 24th of November. Does that mean I’m no longer eligible to be in the express entry pool? Especially since a valid work permit isn’t a criteria as far as one’s score is concerned. I’m so glad I found this forum. It’s been a tremendous resource to me, I only wish I found it earlier. I may not be in this predicament.

Open work permit has no implications whatsoever on EE.

 

[canadaball]

Got my ITA mail! Best thing to wake up to this morning. Good luck to everyone else on your journey!

 

[niteshnbb]

471 and waiting. Not sure about the next draw tooo

 

[Victor8892]

Now 2019 will surely close at 465 +/-. CIC showcased their intentions loud n clear. Less n less people will be eligible to apply in 2020. They apparently want to fill in lesser populated provinces through PNP/CEC. FSW is facing brutal competition. Feeling bad for people below 460 ( I am one of them ). Nevertheless, I am not loosing any hope in increasing my score to give a tough fight to CEC

how?

 

[jamlabhai]

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of November 8, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 757
451-600 14,180
401-450 40,729
441-450 9,060
431-440 10,009
421-430 6,639
411-420 7,002
401-410 8,019
351-400 46,577
391-400 8,222
381-390 9,885
371-380 9,662
361-370 9,675
351-360 9,133
301-350 26,501
0-300 3,777
Total 132,521

add me please at 457