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Ray of Hope - 131st Draw

ArsiSt

Star Member
Dec 1, 2018
52
17
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
18-03-2020
Now 2019 will surely close at 465 +/-. CIC showcased their intentions loud n clear. Less n less people will be eligible to apply in 2020. They apparently want to fill in lesser populated provinces through PNP/CEC. FSW is facing brutal competition. Feeling bad for people below 460 ( I am one of them ). Nevertheless, I am not loosing any hope in increasing my score to give a tough fight to CEC :)
Considering that most people target Toronto or Vancouver, it is fair and logical for them to pursue this strategy. But again, the competition is just insane right now and it will get worse in 2020.
 

tjsecondtry

Hero Member
May 11, 2017
798
1,749
I don't believe there is a strategy to keep the CRS high. There is a target number of people that the government wants to immigrate over the course of the year. Based on the the number of people accepting their ITAs and the number of people included in each PR application that results from an ITA, the government can estimate how many openings are left for the year. The number of ITAs offered directly reflect the number that they believe will allow them to achieve their immigration goals.

Any patterns we think we see or theories we have are overcome by the number of PR applications received and the number of dependents on those applications, and the number the government approves and the number of dependents approved. Perhaps we can encourage the government to release those statistics so that we can understand the true facts.
 

ArsiSt

Star Member
Dec 1, 2018
52
17
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
18-03-2020
The shift from 3,900 ITAs to 3,600 ITAs is very important to consider here IMO.

Current cumulative ITAs at 75,300 (as of 11/13)
- Could have a 3,600 ITA back-to-back draw for the next 5 weeks (until the 18th of Dec) to exceed last years 89,800 by ~4%, or
- Could have a 3,600 ITA draw each with 4 more draws left for this year - to match last years ~89,800 ITAs
What dates would you predict?
 

sinmansion

Member
Oct 17, 2019
17
11
What dates would you predict?
Its either the next 5 Wednesdays with the first option or any 4 of the 5 Wednesdays left for this year (minus and before Dec 25th, cuz they wouldn't) I would be highly amazed to see them fall far below the 89,800 ITAs issued in 2018 while the year-on-year immigration targets are a positive delta.
 

a-imperator

Star Member
Aug 14, 2019
108
50
Now 2019 will surely close at 465 +/-. CIC showcased their intentions loud n clear. Less n less people will be eligible to apply in 2020. They apparently want to fill in lesser populated provinces through PNP/CEC. FSW is facing brutal competition. Feeling bad for people below 460 ( I am one of them ). Nevertheless, I am not loosing any hope in increasing my score to give a tough fight to CEC :)
Technically, the same exact number of people will still be "eligible to apply" in 2020 as the invitations will remain around 3600-3900 every draw. The only difference is that now the competition is open to more qualified people, whereas earlier Express Entry was predominantly dominated by people from one corner of the world.
 

Igethope

Hero Member
Sep 17, 2019
376
404
The shift from 3,900 ITAs to 3,600 ITAs is very important to consider here IMO.

Current cumulative ITAs at 75,300 (as of 11/13)
- Could have a 3,600 ITA back-to-back draw for the next 5 weeks (until the 18th of Dec) to exceed last years 89,800 by ~4%, or
- Could have a 3,600 ITA draw each with 4 more draws left for this year - to match last years ~89,800 ITAs
It’s sounds possible. 75300 +3600 for the next 4 weds Making 89700
 

VKA

Star Member
Sep 26, 2019
137
137
36
Dubai
Category........
Technically, the same exact number of people will still be "eligible to apply" in 2020 as the invitations will remain around 3600-3900 every draw. The only difference is that now the competition is open to more qualified people, whereas earlier Express Entry was predominantly dominated by people from one corner of the world.
Thats exactly what I meant, but in slightly different wordings ;)
Good luck to you mate
 

ArsiSt

Star Member
Dec 1, 2018
52
17
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
18-03-2020
Its either the next 5 Wednesdays with the first option or any 4 of the 5 Wednesdays left for this year (minus and before Dec 25th, cuz they wouldn't) I would be highly amazed to see them fall far below the 89,800 ITAs issued in 2018 while the year-on-year immigration targets are a positive delta.
I really hope so. Would you happen to know their ITA target for 2019?
 

VKA

Star Member
Sep 26, 2019
137
137
36
Dubai
Category........
Finally I got it :) .. but that was a big shock to see ITA's drop to 3600!!! what is going on ..

Good luck to all of you guys .. I will be cheering and supporting you on your journey as well.
Many congratulations, happy for you :)
 

MrConsigliere

Full Member
Nov 13, 2019
36
8
I don't believe there is a strategy to keep the CRS high. There is a target number of people that the government wants to immigrate over the course of the year. Based on the the number of people accepting their ITAs and the number of people included in each PR application that results from an ITA, the government can estimate how many openings are left for the year. The number of ITAs offered directly reflect the number that they believe will allow them to achieve their immigration goals.

Any patterns we think we see or theories we have are overcome by the number of PR applications received and the number of dependents on those applications, and the number the government approves and the number of dependents approved. Perhaps we can encourage the government to release those statistics so that we can understand the true facts.
They wouldn't care about keeping the score high. Why would they? All they would care about is allowing only the top layer of the people who applied. The interest to apply to canada has simply increased recently. It's just a cascading effect. This can be seen from the overall pool size which ballooned recently. Went from 100k to 130k now.

I myself have seen increased applications from the people who have Masters in the US(I'm in the US). When I went to get my police verification done for my stay in the US, the police officer asked me why there were so many people coming to him for the verification recently.
There is a marked increase in the interest to apply to Canada from the people in the US because of the increasing uncertainty of H1B and because you can get a PR without any strings attached in Canada. People are using Canada as a backup/safer choice to the US.