Ray of Hope - 131st Draw

[armer29]

Hey friends, I did some calculations and wanted to know your opinion on the same. As per my calculation, the next cut-off will be 469. I myself is way below than this, but it is what below maths says. Please share your thoughts.

1. 25th Oct: Number of crs 451+ applications in pool = 12,999 (451-600) + 1,255 (above 600) = 14,254

2. 30th Oct: Draw conducted. Score: 475. ITA issued 3900.

3. 08th Nov: Number of crs 451+ applications in pool = 14,180 (451-600) + 757 (above 600) = 14,937

4. Applications entering between 30th and 8th Nov (14 days) = 14,937 - 14,254 + 3900 (ITA issued on 30th) = 4,583

5. Applications entering per day = 4583/14 = 327.35 ~= 328 (round up)

Calculating data for 13th Nov draw

6. 13th Nov: Draw conducted. Score: 472. ITA issued 3600

7. Number of applications entered between 8th & 13th Nov = 328 * 5 = 1640

8. Estimated number of applications on 13th Nov = 14,937 (as of 8th Nov) + 1,640 = 16,577

9. Estimated number of applications after draw = 16,577 – 3600 (ITA issued) = 12,977. These are <= crs 472 as backlog above 473 is cleared.

10. There are 22 crs levels between 451 to 472.

11. Average number of applications at each level (451-472) = 12,977/22 = 564.21 =~ 565. I know it will be different, so considering the AVERAGE

The tentative date for next draw is 27th Nov

12. Estimated number of applications entering the pool between 13th & 27th Nov = 4,583 (refer point 4)

13. Based on 13th Nov draw, ratio of application >= 473 = 16,577 (point 8)/ 3600 (ITA issued) = 4.60.

14. Considering above ratio, number of new entering pool with crs >= 473 = 4,583/4.60 = 995.28 =~ 996. Remaining 3,587 (4,583 – 996) goes below 473.

15. Average number applications added at each level below 473 = 3587/22 (levels between 451-473) = 163

16. Average number applications added at each level below 473 = 565 (point 11) + 163 (point 15) = 728

17. Consider 3600 ITA to issue on 27th Nov

Prediction for next cut-off

18. 996 (>= crs 473, point 14) + 728 (crs 472) + 728 (crs 471) + 728 (crs 470) + 420 (crs 469). Since there are average 728 at crs 469, 420 selected applications will be adjusted by tie breaker.

 

[satnamsingh2k3]

Hey friends, I did some calculations and wanted to know your opinion on the same. As per my calculation, the next cut-off will be 469. I myself is way below than this, but it is what below maths says. Please share your thoughts.

1. 25th Oct: Number of crs 451+ applications in pool = 12,999 (451-600) + 1,255 (above 600) = 14,254

2. 30th Oct: Draw conducted. Score: 475. ITA issued 3900.

3. 08th Nov: Number of crs 451+ applications in pool = 14,180 (451-600) + 757 (above 600) = 14,937

4. Applications entering between 30th and 8th Nov (14 days) = 14,937 - 14,254 + 3900 (ITA issued on 30th) = 4,583

5. Applications entering per day = 4583/14 = 327.35 ~= 328 (round up)

Calculating data for 13th Nov draw

6. 13th Nov: Draw conducted. Score: 472. ITA issued 3600

7. Number of applications entered between 8th & 13th Nov = 328 * 5 = 1640

8. Estimated number of applications on 13th Nov = 14,937 (as of 8th Nov) + 1,640 = 16,577

9. Estimated number of applications after draw = 16,577 – 3600 (ITA issued) = 12,977. These are <= crs 472 as backlog above 473 is cleared.

10. There are 22 crs levels between 451 to 472.

11. Average number of applications at each level (451-472) = 12,977/22 = 564.21 =~ 565. I know it will be different, so considering the AVERAGE

The tentative date for next draw is 27th Nov

12. Estimated number of applications entering the pool between 13th & 27th Nov = 4,583 (refer point 4)

13. Based on 13th Nov draw, ratio of application >= 473 = 16,577 (point 8)/ 3600 (ITA issued) = 4.60.

14. Considering above ratio, number of new entering pool with crs >= 473 = 4,583/4.60 = 995.28 =~ 996. Remaining 3,587 (4,583 – 996) goes below 473.

15. Average number applications added at each level below 473 = 3587/22 (levels between 451-473) = 163

16. Average number applications added at each level below 473 = 565 (point 11) + 163 (point 15) = 728

17. Consider 3600 ITA to issue on 27th Nov

Prediction for next cut-off

18. 996 (>= crs 473, point 14) + 728 (crs 472) + 728 (crs 471) + 728 (crs 470) + 420 (crs 469). Since there are average 728 at crs 469, 420 selected applications will be adjusted by tie breaker.

So in nutshell next draw would be around 469 ?

 

[Nixnic19]

Hey friends, I did some calculations and wanted to know your opinion on the same. As per my calculation, the next cut-off will be 469. I myself is way below than this, but it is what below maths says. Please share your thoughts.

1. 25th Oct: Number of crs 451+ applications in pool = 12,999 (451-600) + 1,255 (above 600) = 14,254

2. 30th Oct: Draw conducted. Score: 475. ITA issued 3900.

3. 08th Nov: Number of crs 451+ applications in pool = 14,180 (451-600) + 757 (above 600) = 14,937

4. Applications entering between 30th and 8th Nov (14 days) = 14,937 - 14,254 + 3900 (ITA issued on 30th) = 4,583

5. Applications entering per day = 4583/14 = 327.35 ~= 328 (round up)

Calculating data for 13th Nov draw

6. 13th Nov: Draw conducted. Score: 472. ITA issued 3600

7. Number of applications entered between 8th & 13th Nov = 328 * 5 = 1640

8. Estimated number of applications on 13th Nov = 14,937 (as of 8th Nov) + 1,640 = 16,577

9. Estimated number of applications after draw = 16,577 – 3600 (ITA issued) = 12,977. These are <= crs 472 as backlog above 473 is cleared.

10. There are 22 crs levels between 451 to 472.

11. Average number of applications at each level (451-472) = 12,977/22 = 564.21 =~ 565. I know it will be different, so considering the AVERAGE

The tentative date for next draw is 27th Nov

12. Estimated number of applications entering the pool between 13th & 27th Nov = 4,583 (refer point 4)

13. Based on 13th Nov draw, ratio of application >= 473 = 16,577 (point 8)/ 3600 (ITA issued) = 4.60.

14. Considering above ratio, number of new entering pool with crs >= 473 = 4,583/4.60 = 995.28 =~ 996. Remaining 3,587 (4,583 – 996) goes below 473.

15. Average number applications added at each level below 473 = 3587/22 (levels between 451-473) = 163

16. Average number applications added at each level below 473 = 565 (point 11) + 163 (point 15) = 728

17. Consider 3600 ITA to issue on 27th Nov

Prediction for next cut-off

18. 996 (>= crs 473, point 14) + 728 (crs 472) + 728 (crs 471) + 728 (crs 470) + 420 (crs 469). Since there are average 728 at crs 469, 420 selected applications will be adjusted by tie breaker.

So if a profile was just entered on October 30 with 469 CRS, then there's a great chance for next week's draw? ü

 

[NikSharma01]

"This online service will be unavailable from 1:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. Eastern time, on Tuesday November 19, 2019, in order to perform system maintenance."

Maintenance notice is up again. It may result is actual "system maintenance/ clearing the huge accumulation of applications or another back-to-back draw".

Let's see what CIC will come up with! However, expecting a b2b draw is not bad. IMO, a back-to-back draw will definitely happen again. If not this time then it will in December for sure, considering the Christmas break from Dec 21-Jan 1 (if I'm not wrong). Hence, draw must happen before that period. If that happens then the cut-off will fall back to the early 460s or even below the 460. Patience and positivity is the only key here guys. Stay hopeful folks. God always has some better plans for us. Good luck everybody

 

[Nixnic19]

"This online service will be unavailable from 1:00 a.m. to 6:00 a.m. Eastern time, on Tuesday November 19, 2019, in order to perform system maintenance."

Maintenance notice is up again. It may result is actual "system maintenance/ clearing the huge accumulation of applications or another back-to-back draw".

Let's see what CIC will come up with! However, expecting a b2b draw is not bad. IMO, a back-to-back draw will definitely happen again. If not this time, then it will in December for sure, considering the Christmas break from Dec 21 - Jan 1(if I'm not wrong). Hence, draw must happen before that period. If that happens then the cut-off will fall back to the early 460s or even below the 460. Patience and positivity is the key here guys. Stay hopeful. Good luck

Thanks for spreading positivity! Everyone has their own struggles and I appreciate the good vibe along the way!

 

[Happy_eyes]

I'm 38 with a crs score of 425. I started learning french in April 2019 from scratch. With intensive everyday classes and lots of personal efforts on my part, I sat for TEF end of October and passed. Today my score is 470. I got 45 extra points from TEF (LWRS C1,C1,C1,B2). I already maxed ielts (Lwrs 8.5,7.5,9,8.. Today I'm bilingual and I learnt that may give more opportunities over there eventually.
Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. Never say I can't. You want Canada? Give it all it takes

This is so great! I am at 455 with maxed IELTS so I also study French now. How did you manage to make so high scores after 6 months? Please share the useful links. Especially I am interested about writing... Your example is inspiring! I hope I will get there too.

 

[Imran_114]

I'm 38 with a crs score of 425. I started learning french in April 2019 from scratch. With intensive everyday classes and lots of personal efforts on my part, I sat for TEF end of October and passed. Today my score is 470. I got 45 extra points from TEF (LWRS C1,C1,C1,B2). I already maxed ielts (Lwrs 8.5,7.5,9,8.. Today I'm bilingual and I learnt that may give more opportunities over there eventually.
Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. Never say I can't. You want Canada? Give it all it takes

Really an inspiring story man. I am almost in the same position. Can you advice me, how did you learnt French. Can you guide me from where to get the study materials or whether you took any coaching? Thanks...

 

[Sapan1086]

I'm 38 with a crs score of 425. I started learning french in April 2019 from scratch. With intensive everyday classes and lots of personal efforts on my part, I sat for TEF end of October and passed. Today my score is 470. I got 45 extra points from TEF (LWRS C1,C1,C1,B2). I already maxed ielts (Lwrs 8.5,7.5,9,8.. Today I'm bilingual and I learnt that may give more opportunities over there eventually.
Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. Never say I can't. You want Canada? Give it all it takes

Wow.. dats truly inspiring.. such good scores.. can u pls guide regarding study material and d way how v shld go about tef exam.. i have heard its tricky exam..

 

[infectious]

I'm 38 with a crs score of 425. I started learning french in April 2019 from scratch. With intensive everyday classes and lots of personal efforts on my part, I sat for TEF end of October and passed. Today my score is 470. I got 45 extra points from TEF (LWRS C1,C1,C1,B2). I already maxed ielts (Lwrs 8.5,7.5,9,8.. Today I'm bilingual and I learnt that may give more opportunities over there eventually.
Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. Never say I can't. You want Canada? Give it all it takes

That is fantastic and the very reason for these threads. We all would appreciate if you could outline your 6 months journey for everyone's benefit. Did you take any classes or was it self-study. Any info on resources would be highly appreciated.

 

[journey21]

Very heartening and inspiring to read positive experiences.
Keep it up.

 

[armer29]

So in nutshell next draw would be around 469 ?

Yes, I think so if the underlying assumptions are true.

 

[armer29]

So if a profile was just entered on October 30 with 469 CRS, then there's a great chance for next week's draw? ü

Hard to tell as generally tie-breaker is at around a month gap, but overall it has very high chances for next draw. All the best!

 

[journey21]

A very good read for all.

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-ottawa-rejecting-more-and-more-study-visa-applicants

 

[hypervariate123]

But in my documents checklist that I got after ITA it says to upload any pages with stamps or markings on my passport??

@dgnbach @Lazybug @ContactFront : Even though the official CIC page (https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/operational-bulletins-manuals/permanent-residence/express-entry/applications-received-on-after-january-1-2016-completeness-check.html#s03) says that only bio page is required, post-TA this is what I have for the valid travel document i.e., passport:

You must submit a legible copy of your valid travel document which you will use to travel.
If you have a passport, you must provide a copy of:

• the page that shows your birth date and country of origin, and
• any pages with stamps, visas or markings.

 

[chemistesa]

Any Hope for a draw this week?