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Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

jskywalker

Full Member
Oct 2, 2019
21
17
Canada
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
Etobicoke
Pre-Assessed..
Yes
App. Filed.......
27-08-2019
Passport Req..
17-09-2019
VISA ISSUED...
09-10-2019
LANDED..........
22-10-2019
Why do you guys have such high hope on lowered score? I think the score won't ever be consistently as low as last year.

The trends of draw cut off last year has nothing to do with this year. Many things has changed in the world in the past year. You have to connect the CRS score with all the international events that has been happening.

I predict that the score may go down to 460, but it will always stay above it. Here are my reasons:

1. US's policy change made it harder to immigrate there, so people who wanted to immigrate to US are apply to Canada as well. These are people who hold at least bachelor degree, and many of them has master and doctor's degree. On top of that, they probably have at least 1 or more years of working experience outside Canada.
2. More and more people are coming to Canada to study. These people have instant 10-60 boost because they have Canadian degree and work experience. And with good IELTS score, it is easy for them to reach 460-470. Because PGWP is a guarantee for them, and applying for EE only requires 1 yr of working, many of them will apply regardless where they want to stay. Some of them just apply and go back to home country, and keep Canada PR as a backup. (https://www.international.gc.ca/education/report-rapport/impact-2017/sec-5.aspx?lang=eng almost half a million in 2016, and it's increasing every year)
3. Canada EE is getting more well known in the world, people who tried to migrate to Australia or New Zealand are apply to Canada as a backup as well. People who can afford it would even come here to study to boost their chance of immigration.

These reasons only mean one thing: more and more people with high score are joining the pool, making the cut off higher and higher each draw. I saw it coming in July, and I'm grateful that I took IELTS again to boost my score, which resulted a PR being granted to me this month.

People, wake up and look at the big picture. If you cannot further improve your score and is in the range of 440-450, just let go of it and start planning your future elsewhere. It's better to start preparing now than next year.
 

mudjawd

Hero Member
Sep 9, 2013
255
106
Toronto
Category........
CEC
Job Offer........
Yes
AOR Received.
09th August
Why do you guys have such high hope on lowered score? I think the score won't ever be consistently as low as last year.

The trends of draw cut off last year has nothing to do with this year. Many things has changed in the world in the past year. You have to connect the CRS score with all the international events that has been happening.

I predict that the score may go down to 460, but it will always stay above it. Here are my reasons:

1. US's policy change made it harder to immigrate there, so people who wanted to immigrate to US are apply to Canada as well. These are people who hold at least bachelor degree, and many of them has master and doctor's degree. On top of that, they probably have at least 1 or more years of working experience outside Canada.
2. More and more people are coming to Canada to study. These people have instant 10-60 boost because they have Canadian degree and work experience. And with good IELTS score, it is easy for them to reach 460-470. Because PGWP is a guarantee for them, and applying for EE only requires 1 yr of working, many of them will apply regardless where they want to stay. Some of them just apply and go back to home country, and keep Canada PR as a backup. (https://www.international.gc.ca/education/report-rapport/impact-2017/sec-5.aspx?lang=eng almost half a million in 2016, and it's increasing every year)
3. Canada EE is getting more well known in the world, people who tried to migrate to Australia or New Zealand are apply to Canada as a backup as well. People who can afford it would even come here to study to boost their chance of immigration.

These reasons only mean one thing: more and more people with high score are joining the pool, making the cut off higher and higher each draw. I saw it coming in July, and I'm grateful that I took IELTS again to boost my score, which resulted a PR being granted to me this month.

People, wake up and look at the big picture. If you cannot further improve your score and is in the range of 440-450, just let go of it and start planning your future elsewhere. It's better to start preparing now than next year.
Wow. you got your PR in 3 months?
 

Dimpysimple

Full Member
Dec 7, 2016
43
2
Hi,

My score is 462 ..

should i learn french ? do you guyz think a beginner can make it or just improve my IELTS score as mine are S7.5 R7.5 L8 W6.5????
 

brs.123

Star Member
Jul 31, 2019
95
10
Yeah. Should probably do ECA and IELTS before,dear...Could been sitting at 470 if your spouse done with IELTS and ECA.

All the best for your spouse IELTS exam. Hope you get ITA soon.
I should have but not done yet. the qickest way is to give ielts . I am not sure what are the chances for 460.:(
 

zagcollins

Champion Member
Sep 9, 2017
1,308
756
Category........
FSW
Hi,

My score is 462 ..

should i learn french ? do you guyz think a beginner can make it or just improve my IELTS score as mine are S7.5 R7.5 L8 W6.5????
hold on till Jan-Feb. B2B draws (3900 ITAs each) can do it for you. Having said that, French is useful in Canada.
 

guyshir

Full Member
Jul 29, 2019
20
13
Hi,

My score is 462 ..

should i learn french ? do you guyz think a beginner can make it or just improve my IELTS score as mine are S7.5 R7.5 L8 W6.5????
462 should clear before Jan 2020. But if you want to improve, try giving IELTS again and aim for W:7 or higher which will get you to CLB 9 (i.e. S:7; R: 7; L8; W:7). This should boost your score significantly.
 

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
I should have but not done yet. the qickest way is to give ielts . I am not sure what are the chances for 460.:(
Yes. If your spouse got CLB 9 (L8 S7 R7 W7), your points will increase by 20. So you will have 480 then.


Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 13th Nov draw and onwards

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)

441-450= 8,739


Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833


It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2019:

601-1,200= 1,255
451-600=12,999
441-450= 9,045

It means in 14 days from Oct 11nd to Oct 25th, there where:
601-1,200 = 53 profile/day (1,255-509=746/14days)

451-600 = 241prof/day (12,999-9,632= 3,367/14days)

441-450 = 15 prof/day(9,045-8,833= 212/14days)


For the range 451-600,let's take the middle number between 314 and 241(278) as the number of people/day who enter the EE pool.

So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,520(1,255+265(53x5days)
451-600=14,389(12,999+1,390(278x5d)
441-450= 9,120(9,045+75(15x5days))



Suppose that from the newly added 7,579(2,822+3,367+1,390) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, 50% of it (3697) will be distributed equally to (471-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,789/10=344profile/score and the other half will be distributed equally to 451-470.Thus,it will make 3,789/20=189profile/score.



After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)

441-450= 9,120


Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

475 score = 28

471-474= 344people/score
465-470=189people/score
451-464= 675 (486+189)people/score

For the range 451-600,let's assume that the number of people/day who enter the EE pool will reduce further to 241people/day.

So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=15,383(12,009+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,330(9,120+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 469-471
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-28(of 475 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-344(of 474 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-344(of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-344(of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-344(of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-189(of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-189(of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
-68(of 109 of 469 newly added score).

After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 469, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =12,225(15,383-3,158)

441-450= 9,330


Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 12,225 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only.

469 score = 41
465-468=189people/score
451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=15,599(12,225+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,540(9,330+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-41(of 469 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 469 newly added score)
-189(of 468 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 468 newly added score)
-189(of 467 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 467 newly added score)
-189(of 466 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 466 newly added score)
-189(of 465 left after 13th Nov draw)
-109 (of 465 newly added score)
-508(of 784 of 464 left after 13th Nov draw)


After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =12,441(15,599-3,158)
441-450= 9,540


Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 12,441 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

464 score = 385
451-463= 893(784+109)people/score

So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=742(53x14days)
451-600=15,815(12,441+3,374(241x14d)
441-450= 9,750(9,540+210(15x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 27th Dec to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
3,900 minus:
-742(601-1200)
-109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-109 (of 480 newly added score)
-109 (of 479 newly added score)
-109 (of 478 newly added score)
-109 (of 477 newly added score)
-109 (of 476 newly added score)
-109 (of 475 newly added score)
-109 (of 474 newly added score)
-109 (of 473 newly added score)
-109 (of 472 newly added score)
-109 (of 471 newly added score)
-109 (of 470 newly added score)
-109 (of 469 newly added score)
-109 (of 468 newly added score)
-109 (of 467 newly added score)
-109 (of 466 newly added score)
-109 (of 465 newly added score)
-385(of 464 left after 27th Nov draw)
-109 (of 464 newly added score)
-811(893 of 463 left after 27th Nov draw)


After 11th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 463, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
451-600 =12,657(15,815-3,158)
441-450= 9,750


Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 12,657 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only.

463 score = 191
451-462= 1,002(893+109)people/score

So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=371(53x7days)
451-600=14,344(12,657+1,687(241x7d)
441-450= 9,855(9,750+105(15x7days))

Suppose that from the newly added 1,687 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,687/31=55profile/score


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-371(601-1200)
-55 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-55 (of 480 newly added score)
-55 (of 479 newly added score)
-55(of 478 newly added score)
-55 (of 477 newly added score)
-55(of 476 newly added score)
-55(of 475 newly added score)
-55(of 474 newly added score)
-55(of 473 newly added score)
-55(of 472 newly added score)
-55(of 471 newly added score)
-55(of 470 newly added score)
-55(of 469 newly added score)
-55(of 468 newly added score)
-55(of 467 newly added score)
-55(of 466 newly added score)
-55(of 465 newly added score)
-55(of 464 newly added score)
-191(of 463 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55(of 463 newly added score)
-1,002(of 462 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55(of 462 newly added score)
-1,002(of 461 left after 11th Dec draw)
-55(of 461 newly added score)
-179(of 1,002 of 460 left after 11th Dec draw).




 

Ilyushin76

Hero Member
Mar 24, 2019
485
190
Hello, I dunno if it helps but....o_O I am sitting with 456 since august and my friend is a very good Chinese astrologist. Based on her predictions I have applied for PNP back in September. She said back then (early in Sept), that there are no chances for this endeavor to work out due to some inner policy or whatever and I won't be selected until January and even then the chances are not that big and that with PNP my chances are a bit better. I know people can laugh at me, but I have posted this back in Sept too.

So, if she has any PNP prospects she should go with it without a doubt because I seriously doubt it will ever drop now below 457-458 :(
any predictions on the december crs
 

jskywalker

Full Member
Oct 2, 2019
21
17
Canada
Category........
CEC
Visa Office......
Etobicoke
Pre-Assessed..
Yes
App. Filed.......
27-08-2019
Passport Req..
17-09-2019
VISA ISSUED...
09-10-2019
LANDED..........
22-10-2019
Wow. you got your PR in 3 months?
2 month to be precise. Applied late August. PPR mid Sept. COPR early October. Inland interview late October.
 

roadtofreedom16

Star Member
Jun 5, 2014
118
25
Why do you guys have such high hope on lowered score? I think the score won't ever be consistently as low as last year.

The trends of draw cut off last year has nothing to do with this year. Many things has changed in the world in the past year. You have to connect the CRS score with all the international events that has been happening.

I predict that the score may go down to 460, but it will always stay above it. Here are my reasons:

1. US's policy change made it harder to immigrate there, so people who wanted to immigrate to US are apply to Canada as well. These are people who hold at least bachelor degree, and many of them has master and doctor's degree. On top of that, they probably have at least 1 or more years of working experience outside Canada.
2. More and more people are coming to Canada to study. These people have instant 10-60 boost because they have Canadian degree and work experience. And with good IELTS score, it is easy for them to reach 460-470. Because PGWP is a guarantee for them, and applying for EE only requires 1 yr of working, many of them will apply regardless where they want to stay. Some of them just apply and go back to home country, and keep Canada PR as a backup. (https://www.international.gc.ca/education/report-rapport/impact-2017/sec-5.aspx?lang=eng almost half a million in 2016, and it's increasing every year)
3. Canada EE is getting more well known in the world, people who tried to migrate to Australia or New Zealand are apply to Canada as a backup as well. People who can afford it would even come here to study to boost their chance of immigration.

These reasons only mean one thing: more and more people with high score are joining the pool, making the cut off higher and higher each draw. I saw it coming in July, and I'm grateful that I took IELTS again to boost my score, which resulted a PR being granted to me this month.

People, wake up and look at the big picture. If you cannot further improve your score and is in the range of 440-450, just let go of it and start planning your future elsewhere. It's better to start preparing now than next year.
Thank you.
For now, I just wish there will be an 'extra' draw on Dec 18, after Dec 11; similar to what happened last year.