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Ray of Hope - 130th Draw

Discussion in 'Express Entry / Expression of Interest' started by 13nitinsharma, Oct 30, 2019.

  1. LOL. I am at 468 too. If you get an ITA, I get an ITA too. We'll pray for each other :)
     
    Luckbrother likes this.
  2. Some said yes (e.g on page 2 of this thread), some said no. There are so many variables in the formula (e.g. b2b draw) that nobody can predict. I feel you buddy, hope you can get an ITA this year.
     
  3. 460 by the end of the year seems unlikely. We have around 3 to 4 draws left in 2019 and the score will probably stabilize around 465 by the end of the year. 460 could be Jan/February
     
  4. The only real difference it makes if you get at least B1 level next to 8777 IELTS - only then you will get a score (I have played with the calculator, but I could be wrong). Of course, it depends on your talents, but I have learned it for a while and even though I understand what people say, the TFC test is much more complicated than IELTS. You have to be very fluent and with so many times and verbs it is tough.
     
  5. 6 draws.
     
    Sandeep198511 likes this.
  6. 6 draws? almost every week?
     
  7. Yep, I'm calling it.
     
  8. I am really surprised by this relatively high cut off score.
     
  9. Nov. 13
    Nov. 27
    Dec. 11
    Dec.25 (If they decide to do around Christmas time)

    Why would it be more?
     
    Captain789 likes this.
  10. 6 Nov, 13 Nov, 27 Nov, 4 Dec, 11 Dec, 18 Dec
     
    sinmansion likes this.
  11. Does this mean only candidates who applied before Aug 29 for invited in this draw? How does this work? I think in the last draw (Oct 2nd) people who had applied till Sept 20 already got picked. I think I'm missing something here.
     
  12. Lol every week? That's preposterous.

    Might as well believe the CRS score will drop to 400 as well with 40,000 ITAs issued each draw.
     
    HariPriya12 likes this.
  13. #163 Dheana90, Oct 30, 2019 at 4:38 PM
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2019
    Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 13th Nov draw and onwards

    After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

    601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
    451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)

    441-450= 8,739


    Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

    CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
    CRS score range Number of candidates
    601-1,200=509
    451-600=9,632
    441-450=8,833


    It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
    601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

    451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

    441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)

    CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 25, 2019:

    601-1,200= 1,255
    451-600=12,999
    441-450= 9,045

    It means in 14 days from Oct 11nd to Oct 25th, there where:
    601-1,200 = 53 profile/day (1,255-509=746/14days)

    451-600 = 241prof/day (12,999-9,632= 3,367/14days)

    441-450 = 15 prof/day(9,045-8,833= 212/14days)


    For the range 451-600,let's take the middle number between 314 and 241(278) as the number of people/day who enter the EE pool.

    So, by 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

    601-1,200=1,520(1,255+265(53x5days)
    451-600=14,389(12,999+1,390(278x5d)
    441-450= 9,120(9,045+75(15x5days))



    Suppose that from the newly added 7,579(2,822+3,367+1,390) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, 50% of it (3697) will be distributed equally to (471-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,789/10=344profile/score and the other half will be distributed equally to 451-470.Thus,it will make 3,789/20=189profile/score.



    After 30th October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 475, the score distribution would have been approximately:
    601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -1,520)
    451-600 =12,009(14,389-2,380)

    441-450= 9,120


    Note: As cut off was 475, it means that the 12,009 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-475 only.

    475 score = 28

    471-474= 344people/score
    465-470=189people/score
    451-464= 675 (486+189)people/score

    For the range 451-600,let's assume that the number of people/day who enter the EE pool will reduce further to 241people/day.

    So, by 13th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

    601-1,200=742(53x14days)
    451-600=15,383(12,009+3,374(241x14d)
    441-450= 9,330(9,120+210(15x14days))

    Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 30th Oct to 13th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


    With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 469-471
    3,900 minus:
    -742(601-1200)
    -109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
    -109 (of 480 newly added score)
    -109 (of 479 newly added score)
    -109 (of 478 newly added score)
    -109 (of 477 newly added score)
    -109 (of 476 newly added score)
    -28(of 475 left after 30th Oct draw)
    -109 (of 475 newly added score)
    -344(of 474 left after 30th Oct draw)
    -109 (of 474 newly added score)
    -344(of 473 left after 30th Oct draw)
    -109 (of 473 newly added score)
    -344(of 472 left after 30th Oct draw)
    -109 (of 472 newly added score)
    -344(of 471 left after 30th Oct draw)
    -109 (of 471 newly added score)
    -189(of 470 left after 30th Oct draw)
    -109 (of 470 newly added score)
    -189(of 469 left after 30th Oct draw)
    -68(of 109 of 469 newly added score).

    After 13th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 469, the score distribution will be approximately:
    601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
    451-600 =12,225(15,383-3,158)

    441-450= 9,330


    Note: As cut off was 469, it means that the 12,225 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-469 only.

    469 score = 41

    465-468=189people/score
    451-464= 784(675+109)people/score

    So, by 27th November, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

    601-1,200=742(53x14days)
    451-600=15,599(12,225+3,374(241x14d)
    441-450= 9,540(9,330+210(15x14days))

    Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 13th Nov to 27th Nov, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


    With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 464-466
    3,900 minus:
    -742(601-1200)
    -109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
    -109 (of 480 newly added score)
    -109 (of 479 newly added score)
    -109 (of 478 newly added score)
    -109 (of 477 newly added score)
    -109 (of 476 newly added score)
    -109 (of 475 newly added score)
    -109 (of 474 newly added score)
    -109 (of 473 newly added score)
    -109 (of 472 newly added score)
    -109 (of 471 newly added score)
    -109 (of 470 newly added score)
    -41(of 469 left after 13th Nov draw)
    -109 (of 469 newly added score)
    -189(of 468 left after 13th Nov draw)
    -109 (of 468 newly added score)
    -189(of 467 left after 13th Nov draw)
    -109 (of 467 newly added score)
    -189(of 466 left after 13th Nov draw)
    -109 (of 466 newly added score)
    -189(of 465 left after 13th Nov draw)
    -109 (of 465 newly added score)

    -508(of 784 of 464 left after 13th Nov draw)



    After 27th Nov draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 464, the score distribution will be approximately:
    601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
    451-600 =12,441(15,599-3,158)
    441-450= 9,540


    Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 12,441 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only.

    464 score = 385

    451-463= 893(784+109)people/score

    So, by 11th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

    601-1,200=742(53x14days)
    451-600=15,815(12,441+3,374(241x14d)
    441-450= 9,750(9,540+210(15x14days))

    Suppose that from the newly added 3,374 profile from 27th Dec to 11th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 3,374/31=109profile/score


    With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 463-465
    3,900 minus:
    -742(601-1200)
    -109 (of 481-600 newly added score)
    -109 (of 480 newly added score)
    -109 (of 479 newly added score)
    -109 (of 478 newly added score)
    -109 (of 477 newly added score)
    -109 (of 476 newly added score)
    -109 (of 475 newly added score)
    -109 (of 474 newly added score)
    -109 (of 473 newly added score)
    -109 (of 472 newly added score)
    -109 (of 471 newly added score)
    -109 (of 470 newly added score)
    -109 (of 469 newly added score)
    -109 (of 468 newly added score)
    -109 (of 467 newly added score)
    -109 (of 466 newly added score)
    -109 (of 465 newly added score)

    -385(of 464 left after 27th Nov draw)
    -109 (of 464 newly added score)
    -811(893 of 463 left after 27th Nov draw)



    After 11th Dec draw with 3,900 ITA issued and the cut off 463, the score distribution will be approximately:
    601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -742)
    451-600 =12,657(15,815-3,158)
    441-450= 9,750


    Note: As cut off was 463, it means that the 12,657 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-463 only.

    463 score = 191

    451-462= 1,002(893+109)people/score

    So, by 18th December, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

    601-1,200=371(53x7days)
    451-600=14,344(12,657+1,687(241x7d)
    441-450= 9,855(9,750+105(15x7days))

    Suppose that from the newly added 1,687 profile from 11th Dec to 18th Dec, all will be distributed equally to (451-481 to 600). So, it will make 1,687/31=55profile/score


    With 3,900 ITAs the cut off will be approximately 460-462
    3,900 minus:
    -371(601-1200)
    -55 (of 481-600 newly added score)
    -55 (of 480 newly added score)
    -55 (of 479 newly added score)
    -55(of 478 newly added score)
    -55 (of 477 newly added score)
    -55(of 476 newly added score)
    -55(of 475 newly added score)
    -55(of 474 newly added score)
    -55(of 473 newly added score)
    -55(of 472 newly added score)
    -55(of 471 newly added score)
    -55(of 470 newly added score)
    -55(of 469 newly added score)
    -55(of 468 newly added score)
    -55(of 467 newly added score)
    -55(of 466 newly added score)
    -55(of 465 newly added score)
    -55(of 464 newly added score)
    -191(of 463 left after 11th Dec draw)
    -55(of 463 newly added score)
    -1,002(of 462 left after 11th Dec draw)
    -55(of 462 newly added score)
    -1,002(of 461 left after 11th Dec draw)
    -55(of 461 newly added score)
    -179(of 1,002 of 460 left after 11th Dec draw).







     
    Lazybug, imusi, Angel1113 and 5 others like this.
  14. This should look good on Dec 18. Took a screenshot for posterity
     
  15. #165 Catnat, Oct 30, 2019 at 4:40 PM
    Last edited: Oct 30, 2019
    Do they usually do B2Bs in December or early January? I'm asking because my birthday is on 28 December...
     

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