Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

[ahsanshahbaz]

Why does the gov shut down next week for elections? I always believed elections aren't a reason for anything to stop .. but maybe Canada is different.

No government does not shuts down but people including those working in CIC going out to cast votes running draw will not be national priority.

The focus will shift besides Draw requires Ministerial Approval which is formality but before next Wednesday there is a possibility that who is post election minister for immigration is not clear incase incumbent liberals are unable to make government by themselves e.g. Short of required majority numbers.

Also possible, Conservatives can come up on the top or liberals might end up requiring small parties support to form Government. This would means a week of uncertainty of who the Minister for Immigration is and conducting draw might be least of their concerns. Besides I think if they plan on having another draw liberals themselves would want to do it before elections but then again they could care less.

 

[R@$hM!]

Hey I got a pnp from Alberta. How long do I have to wait to accept it.. I want to try through the express entry(463), if I don't get through in the following 2-3 rounds was planning of accepting this pnp. Please recommend what should I do.. received the nomination on Sep 25th.

 

[shergill12]

So I was looking at old trends after FST Draw and find some information:

Here score was increased after a Draw but eventually fell roughly 10 points.

Here score was gone up a bit but came back later to even lower stage.

Here score was 450 before FST and came back to 459 after four rounds.

Is score only going up because of people entering pool? If Yes, how come people are having better score then previous years all of sudden? Because score just started to go past 450 few months back only!

Sorry if I made any mistake in assumptions here, I'm new and novice, but very good with numbers - Data Engineer

 

[gabriel900]

No government does not shuts down but people including those working in CIC going out to cast votes running draw will not be national priority.

The focus will shift besides Draw requires Ministerial Approval which is formality but before next Wednesday there is a possibility that who is post election minister for immigration is not clear incase incumbent liberals are unable to make government by themselves e.g. Short of required majority numbers.

Also possible, Conservatives can come up on the top or liberals might end up requiring small parties support to form Government. This would means a week of uncertainty of who the Minister for Immigration is and conducting draw might be least of their concerns. Besides I think if they plan on having another draw liberals themselves would want to do it before elections but then again they could care less.

I truly believe we are overthinking things and all will be good .. I doubt draws can make a difference during election week and the wheel will keep on turning .. but who knows .. que sera sera .. will wait and see .. and good luck to all

 

[shergill12]

No government does not shuts down but people including those working in CIC going out to cast votes running draw will not be national priority.

The focus will shift besides Draw requires Ministerial Approval which is formality but before next Wednesday there is a possibility that who is post election minister for immigration is not clear incase incumbent liberals are unable to make government by themselves e.g. Short of required majority numbers.

Also possible, Conservatives can come up on the top or liberals might end up requiring small parties support to form Government. This would means a week of uncertainty of who the Minister for Immigration is and conducting draw might be least of their concerns. Besides I think if they plan on having another draw liberals themselves would want to do it before elections but then again they could care less.

Hey mate, I think the immigration minister will be only involved with yearly number proposal and acceptance. There will be few other Head/Top Level position holder who're working in a permanent government position for such action like conducting a draw adding the number or maybe they already make the allocation 6 months beforehand and some basic administrator conduct such rounds on his laptop by just selecting stream and no of invitations. Least they would care about how to make score go up or low because for them it's about number of people entering their country.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

Hey mate, I think the immigration minister will be only involved with yearly number proposal and acceptance. There will be few other Head/Top Level position holder who're working in a permanent government position for such action like conducting a draw adding the number or maybe they already make the allocation 6 months beforehand and some basic administrator conduct such rounds on his laptop by just selecting stream and no of invitations. Least they would care about how to make score go up or low because for them it's about number of people entering their country.

This might be a likely possibility but we never know for sure. Also, we should remember May 2019 when this all changed. Many people here were expecting a draw next week after FST Draw that draw never happened and it resulted in 470 score due to gap of 28 days. The biggest Gap between regular draws I believe since 2015 back when EE started. They have done this once no one stoping them from doing it again. They will still be above their planned ITA numbers for 2019 if they do not conduct an extra draw for october and go with Two draws every month. I really hope there is a draw around the corner lets keep our fingers crossed.

 

[robin6869]

You must keep actively monitoring PNPs and be open to proceed through this route.

Well, My lawyer just created my profile last week, Will update LMIA if I get it approved in next few months, I don't know my NOC 6316 other service supervisor will be selected by any province here. May be Bihar UP or MP might nominate me for this I have ECA of professional degree(master degree) I do not know if they issue NOI's for current occupation or from your level of education. I never created profile myself, so I don't know how it works for PNP. Btw I am in Ontario now with 1.5 months of experience.

 

[Dheana90]

@Angel1113 and @Dheana90 Great Job done guys, and be consistent in setting yourself as an example to others.

True examples of focus and dedication towards their roles, keep going with your good work!!

Thank you dear @13nitinsharma

 

[Dheana90]

Hey Mate, You're into Data science or anything similar or you do it just for sake of it?

Nah bro...I just love doing this calculation. I'm an accounting graduate though

 

[Dheana90]

Oh I just love the way to explain your predictions. Although a small factor to consider. Given ONIP/other pnps will have Utilised most of their nominations Qouta isnt PNP supposed to Reduce Significantly for next Two months? You should probably factor this in for post October Draws. There wont be a draw next week or Monday(Election Day) that is for sure. If a normal draw has to happen it has to happen today or tomorrow. In past years friday and thursday draws have indeed happened. Lets just pray this happens and the disaster is averted.

I can do that too but we have to remember that some people that have high score (in the 450s)who got OINP NOI didn't just submit their nomination application straight away. As they have 45days to submit an application, July and August NOI receivers could wait and submit their application in Aug and Sep respectively as they were thinking that they might still have a chance of getting regular ITA. Now, as the processing takes about 60days, their nomination probably will be approved in Oct/Nov.

We also have to account Nominations from other PNP programs as well such as BCPNP, SINP,MPNP and other provinces that issued NOI/LOI in July/Aug to eligible EE candidates. As their processing takes longer, I think we should expect to see the nomination approval in Nov/Dec to throughout next year.

So, just take my calculation as worse case scenario,dear..As the CRS score cut off can be decreased extremely low so fast. It happened before, so surely it can happen again. Because we don't really know the actual pool data as IRCC always publishes 5 days old data on the draw date..So, we can only wonder and make assumption and I can only do estimation based on the previous and latest CRS data table. Beyond that is a guessing game for me. Cheers

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

I can do that too but we have to remember that some people thst have high score (in the 450s)who got OINP NOI didn't just submit their nomination application straightaway. As they have 45days to submit an application, July and August NOI receivers could wait and submit their application in Aug and Sep respectively. Now, as the processing takes about 60days. Their nomination probably will be approved in Oct/Nov.

We also have to account Nominations from other PNP programs as well such as BCPNP, SINP,MPNP and other provinces that issued NOI/LOI in July/Aug to eligible EE candidates. As their processing takes longer, I think we shoukd expect to see the nomination apprival in Nov/Dec throughout next year.

So, just take my calculation as worse case scenario,dear..As the CRS score cut off can be decreased extremely low so fast. It happen before, so surely it can happen again. Because we don't really know the actual pool data as IRCC aslways publishes 5 days old data on tje draw date..So, we can only wonder and make assumption and I can only do estimation based on the previous and latest CRS data table. Beyond that is a guessing game for me. Cheers

Yes but ONIP has bigger share. Once OINP reaches 6900 Cap for this year any pending NOI will get Nominations in Jan 2020 like last year. As of 10th October they have used up 6033 of their Quota for this year. Which also includes 2018 NOIs who were carry forwarded to 2019

 

[sinmansion]

Hi All,

Please update my current CRS on the tracker: 461

There could be a few back to back draws that reduce the score, before the year ends. Hoping for the best.

 

[Dheana90]

Yes but ONIP has bigger share. Once OINP reaches 6900 Cap for this year any pending NOI will get Nominations in Jan 2020 like last year. As of 10th October they have used up 6033 of their Quota for this year. Which also includes 2018 NOIs who were carry forwarded to 2019

I would say that PNP nominations don't really affect the CRS cut off significantly but the high influx of those who entered the EE with high score of 460 and above who made the cut off points stays high.

If you can see from my previous calculations for the previous draws with 3600 ITAs issued, PNP nominations barely touch 800 but the cut off score always stays high because the rest of 2,800 candidates who got ITAs have score of 460+

We also can clearly see with the 2nd Oct draw where ITA number had increased to 3,900 but the cut off score still jumped by 2 points even though the PNP nominations was only about 800s.

 

[Artk]

So I was looking at old trends after FST Draw and find some information:

Here score was increased after a Draw but eventually fell roughly 10 points.

Here score was gone up a bit but came back later to even lower stage.

Here score was 450 before FST and came back to 459 after four rounds.

Is score only going up because of people entering pool? If Yes, how come people are having better score then previous years all of sudden? Because score just started to go past 450 few months back only!

Sorry if I made any mistake in assumptions here, I'm new and novice, but very good with numbers - Data Engineer

From this I can see that they once did an ONLY PNP draw in 2018 – why didn't they repeat this exercise? I believe it would have been more appropriate. I actually don't see the reason why are all of us (FSTs and PNPs) drawn from the pool on the same conditions, even though it's obvious that it's not quite fair.

 

[LouiseV36]

Looking at the second FST draw of 2017 and 2018 CIC did not wait the full 2 weeks before the next FSW draw. In 2018 the did a trades draw (September 2018) and a week later they did another draw for all the programs. In 2017 they did the trades draw in November and a week later they did another draw for all programs. Looking at the history I believe they might do another draw on the 23rd October for all programs. That is my feel on when the next draw is.