Ray of Hope - 129th Draw

[RameshKum]

there will be another draw today

I love your optimism.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

there will be another draw today

Unlikely but If that happens. Party is on me bro if we both make it to canada.

 

[TD0911]

there will be another draw today

I so hope this was true!!

 

[ContactFront]

Thanks.. this is terrible now I've OINP nomination and if my profile is ineligbile. I'm taking IELTS test again on 26th of this month. Not sure, how to deal with OINP nomination now.

Contact OINP after you create another profile and ask them to link nomination to the new profile.

 

[Krish_CTS]

Hopefully the next draw will be on 23rd Oct and in the worst case, it will be on 30th as it happened in May...

 

[ns317]

9 Wednesdays to go before we hit holidays. Total invites for the year remain 67,300. Last year's total invites were 89,800.

Even at 3,900 invites per draw, that means 6 draws still to be done over the next 9 Wednesdays just to match last year's total invites.

Is there any worldly reason to invite less candidates than last year when the immigration targets went up from '18 to '19? Less wastage than expected from ITA to PPR for 2018 ITAs? I don't know.

If 6 draws are still to happen over the next 9 weeks, that's not one B2B (one week interval) draw that needs to be done, but two. And it needs to start from next Wednesday, not from the 30th.

 

[vinegarandsalt]

9 Wednesdays to go before we hit holidays. Total invites for the year remain 67,300. Last year's total invites were 89,800.

Even at 3,900 invites per draw, that means 6 draws still to be done over the next 9 Wednesdays just to match last year's total invites.

Is there any worldly reason to invite less candidates than last year when the immigration targets went up from '18 to '19? Less wastage than expected from ITA to PPR for 2018 ITAs? I don't know.

If 6 draws are still to happen over the next 9 weeks, that's not one B2B (one week interval) draw that needs to be done, but two. And it needs to start from next Wednesday, not from the 30th.

kudos for the logical predictions. i hope you are right.

 

[LunaLuLu]

I gonna lose my hope and have to register another IELTS exam, coz my pgwp will expire at the beginning of Feb. And my crs is only 461.......I can't wait anyone and have to encourage myself to pick up the ielts textbooks.

 

[Yqing237]

My understanding is that to claim the job offer points, either you should have an LMIA or a letter from the company guaranteeing to keep you employed for a minimum of one year after getting PR approved

I think for intra transfer you don’t need LMIA

 

[Dheana90]

Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 23rd or 30th October draw:

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)


So, by 23rdth October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,193(509 + 684(57x12days))
451-600=13,400(9,632+3,768(314x12d)
441-450= 8,953(8,833+120(10x12days))

Suppose that from the newly added 6,590 (2,822+3,768) profile from 2nd Oct to 23rd Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 6,590/26=253profile/score.

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 466-467
3,900 minus:
-1193(601-1200)
-253 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-253 (of 475 newly added score)
-253 (of 474 newly added score)
-253 (of 473 newly added score)
-253 (of 472 newly added score)
-253 (of 471 newly added score)
-253 (of 470 newly added score)
-253 (of 469 newly added score)
-253 (of 468 newly added score)
-253 (of 467 newly added score)
-177 (of 466 newly added score)


By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))

Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)

 

[Angel1113]

Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 23rd or 30th October draw:

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)


So, by 23rdth October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,193(509 + 684(57x12days))
451-600=13,400(9,632+3,768(314x12d)
441-450= 8,953(8,833+120(10x12days))

Suppose that from the newly added 6,590 (2,822+3,768) profile from 2nd Oct to 23rd Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 6,590/26=253profile/score.

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 466-467
3,900 minus:
-1193(601-1200)
-253 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-253 (of 475 newly added score)
-253 (of 474 newly added score)
-253 (of 473 newly added score)
-253 (of 472 newly added score)
-253 (of 471 newly added score)
-253 (of 470 newly added score)
-253 (of 469 newly added score)
-253 (of 468 newly added score)
-253 (of 467 newly added score)
-177 (of 466 newly added score)


By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))

Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)

Thank you @Dheana90
Really appreciate your time and hard work.

 

[VKA]

Below is my estimation calculation of CRS cut off for 23rd or 30th October draw:

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of October 11, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200=509
451-600=9,632
441-450=8,833

It means in 9 days from Oct 2nd to Oct 11th, there where:
601-1,200 = 57 profile/day (509/9days)

451-600 = 314 prof/day (9,632-6,810 = 2,822/9days)

441-450 = 10 prof/day(8,833-8,739= 94/9days)


So, by 23rdth October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,193(509 + 684(57x12days))
451-600=13,400(9,632+3,768(314x12d)
441-450= 8,953(8,833+120(10x12days))

Suppose that from the newly added 6,590 (2,822+3,768) profile from 2nd Oct to 23rd Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 6,590/26=253profile/score.

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 466-467
3,900 minus:
-1193(601-1200)
-253 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-253 (of 475 newly added score)
-253 (of 474 newly added score)
-253 (of 473 newly added score)
-253 (of 472 newly added score)
-253 (of 471 newly added score)
-253 (of 470 newly added score)
-253 (of 469 newly added score)
-253 (of 468 newly added score)
-253 (of 467 newly added score)
-177 (of 466 newly added score)


By 30th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=1,592(509+1083(57x19days)
451-600=15,598(9,632+5,966(314x19d)
441-450= 9,023(8,833+190(10x19days))

Suppose that from the newly added 8,788 (2,822+5,966) profile from 2nd Oct to 30th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 476 to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 8,788/26=338profile/score.


With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 470-471
3,900 minus:
-1,592(601-1200)
-338 (of 476-600 newly added score)
-338 (of 475 newly added score)
-338 (of 474 newly added score)
-338 (of 473 newly added score)
-338 (of 472 newly added score)
-338 (of 471 newly added score)
-280 (of 338 of 470 newly added score)

Thank you @Dheana90 for your calculations as always. I’ll loose 5 points next June,2020 and currently sitting at 456. Do you still reckon the cut off to steep that low until June, any hopes alive ?

 

[Dheana90]

Thank you @Dheana90
Really appreciate your time and hard work.

No problem dear.

Thank you for managing the internal tracker as well. I follow internal tracker's data for my estimation calculation. I know our internal tracker is not a true representation of the actual CRS pool but atleast we got the idea of it from our internal tracker that you manage

So thank you once again for your effort in keeping it up to date.

 

[Captain789]

So now 456 won't work even in Jan-February?

 

[Dheana90]

Thank you @Dheana90 for your calculations as always. I’ll loose 5 points next June,2020 and currently sitting at 456. Do you still reckon the cut off to steep that low until June, any hopes alive ?

Yes. I believe so dear. June is still far way ahead so I think you should get ITA before then