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Ray of Hope - 128th Draw

robin6869

Hero Member
Jul 31, 2017
278
252
My employer will try for LMIA soon. Regardless I will have 466 in april 2020. I hope that would be good enough to get ITA then as after January they will lower down ITAs to 3300 again and people in pool are increasing twice a day thrice a night, that scares me even at 466 next april. any hope folks?
 
Last edited:
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Limitless

Full Member
Sep 16, 2019
49
34
My employer will try for LMIA soon. Regardless I will have 466 in april 2020. I hope that would be good enough to get ITA then as after January they will lower down ITAs to 3300 again and people in pool are increasing twice a day thrice a night, that scares me even at 466 next april. any hope folks?
Am not a professional, but I don’t think U have any basis to be worried.
1. Worry changes nothing.
2. Next year April is still far.
3. What if you worry for what will happen next year april and your LMIA clicks?


In all, don’t worry U will be fine. At least u have different alternatives either EE or LMIA unlike some of us. Cheer up
 
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Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on Oct 2, 2019 11:20 am UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 6): | EricD: 471 | Woqi114: 463 | roadtofreedom: 463 | PinalThakkar: 462 | Leftarmover: 461 | ntachi: 461 |
  • 455-460 (Total 72) – | PrynkP: 460 | Ankoorva: 460 | DivyaS: 460 | Bahariesmoon88: 460 | Wanttoleavenow: 460 | Manish Patel: 459 | patel_d07: 459 | SolwayFirth: 459 | Sarunmoz: 459 | vishnusk1995: 459 | Sunsunny: 458 | ahsanshahbaz: 458 | fperk_83 : 458 | Milanarora: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | Thumper : 457 | ArijitRoy: 457 | Limitless: 457 | Sapan1086: 457 | SG1507: 457 | ankitpanchal: 457 | Ankitg88: 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Captain789: 456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | Indian dentist1: 456 | daksh1803: 456 | Mustafa Ghias: 456 | nklrwt: 456 | VKA: 456 | scarlettN: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | greenshma_aju: 455 | aagosh6188: 455 | cdddelhi: 455 | Manishprasher: 455 | Daksh1: 455 | Dr Seun: 455 | Hannan Khan: 455 |
  • 454-450 (Total 60) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | TD0911: 454 | MMUNEEBA: 454 | Jasmine172: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | faith_works: 453 | Medhansh: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Canadaball: 453 | Sunrok: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | masha27o: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | hmhk202: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 | tanveer041: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 62) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | Nikhil Pal: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | Vibuthi: 449 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | tonyzz: 448 | matteis:447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | Islander5548: 446 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445 |
  • 441-444 (Total 37)- Shaanoh: 444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | prince_lords: 439 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 8) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | rajapanesar: 422 | Sdabas: 421 |
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

Let estimate the 16th Oct draw using this our own internal tracker and current published CRS data distribution on 27th Sept

After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200
=579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704

It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)

451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)

441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)


So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.


So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 471to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/21=123profile/score.



With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)

-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-486 (of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-68 (of 461 newly added score)



If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462

3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)

-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-212 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)

 
Last edited:

VKA

Star Member
Sep 26, 2019
137
137
36
Dubai
Category........
Let estimate the 16th Oct draw using this our own internal tracker and current published CRS data distribution on 27th Sept

After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200
=579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704

It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)

451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)

441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)


So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.


So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 471to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/21=123profile/score.



With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)

-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-486 (of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-68 (of 461 newly added score)



If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462

3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)

-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-212 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
Nicely analysed @Dheana90. A repeated but important question for me as well as for my fellow participants. Are there any fair chances that people stuck between scores 455-460 can get their ITA’s till 2020 mid or before, as per your meticulous calculations.
Thank you
 

Tousif_27

Star Member
Aug 8, 2016
117
27
Let estimate the 16th Oct draw using this our own internal tracker and current published CRS data distribution on 27th Sept

After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200
=579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704

It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)

451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)

441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)


So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.


So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 471to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/21=123profile/score.



With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)

-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-486 (of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-68 (of 461 newly added score)



If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462

3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)

-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-212 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
Hi @Dheana90 ,

Thank you for your efforts as usual but I'd like to point out that 3061 of the previous draw were above 464 so we can't really divide 2590 equally between 451 to 600... I feel the CRS based on your calculations will touch 463 if 2590 and 658(total 3248 of 3900) is added to 464 to 1200 range ...The remaining 652 will wipe out 464 and partly 463.
 

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
Nicely analysed @Dheana90. A repeated but important question for me as well as for my fellow participants. Are there any fair chances that people stuck between scores 455-460 can get their ITA’s till 2020 mid or before, as per your meticulous calculations.
Thank you
Hi dear...

I would say Yes, they have a chance. Probably by the end of the year. If not then it shoud be at the beginning of next year. As the ITA size already increases and I believe that the PNP nominations are slowly decreasing, the score should touch at 455 by Feb next year.
 

VKA

Star Member
Sep 26, 2019
137
137
36
Dubai
Category........
Hi dear...

I would say Yes, they have a chance. Probably by the end of the year. If not then it shoud be at the beginning of next year. As the ITA size already increases and I believe that the PNP nominations are slowly decreasing, the score should touch at 455 by Feb next year.
Thank you for your response and I hope your words come to life soon :)
 

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
Hi @Dheana90 ,

Thank you for your efforts as usual but I'd like to point out that 3061 of the previous draw were above 464 so we can't really divide 2590 equally between 451 to 600... I feel the CRS based on your calculations will touch 463 if 2590 and 658(total 3248 of 3900) is added to 464 to 1200 range ...The remaining 652 will wipe out 464 and partly 463.
Hi dear...Thank you for pointing that out but the reason why I always divide the distribution equally is because I don't know ezactly the density of the new added score going to be. In my previous calculation for 2nd Oct draw, there were about 404 people/day added to the range of 451-600. But this time, it was reduced significantly at 185 candidates/day and that too we don't really know exactly how many people are sitting at each score between 451-600. So, for the purpose of my estimation, I used our internal tracker managed by our friend @Angel1113 which shows the highest score in the data was 471. Therefore, I used that as the highest score in the range of 451-600 and divide them equally. Whereas in the previous published internal tracker, the highest score in the range of 451-600 was 484 if I'm not mistaken and coupled that up with 839 or maybe much more PNP nomination receivers entered the pool again, it was clear why the cut off score went up again on 2nd Oct draw. But this time, there was no sign of PNP nominations in the tracker as well as many high points in the range of 451-600, so that's why I think the score will come down in the next draw.

I will update my estimation again if there is new high score in the range of 451-600 as there is still few days left before the next draw and I'm sure there will be more people will be added to the tracker. :):)
 

Yemjim

Member
Oct 11, 2019
18
19
Category........
PNP
NOC Code......
1114
Well, I don't see a reason not use uppercase. Anyways, I went through this previously but there seems to be some confusion regarding city to city PCC in some other forums.
Using an uppercase implies you are 'yelling'.it is considered impolite.almost everyone is communicating in lowercases for this obvious reason
 
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Limitless

Full Member
Sep 16, 2019
49
34
Let estimate the 16th Oct draw using this our own internal tracker and current published CRS data distribution on 27th Sept

After 18th September draw with 3,600 ITA issued and cut off 462, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,600 -655)
451-600 =7,277(10,222-2,945)
441-450= 8,645


CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of September 27, 2019 CRS score range
Number of candidates
601-1,200
=579
451-600 =8,946
441-450 =8,704

It means in 9 days from Sep 18th to Sep 27th, there where:
601-1,200 = 64 profile/day (579/9days)

451-600 = 185 prof/day (8,946-7277 = 1,669/9days)

441-450 = 7prof/day(8,704-8,645= 59/9days)


So, by 2nd October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=839(579+260(47x 5days))
451-600=9,871(8,946+925(185x5days))
441-450= 8,739 (8,704+35(7x5days))

After 2nd October draw with 3,900 ITA issued and cut off 464, the score distribution would have been approximately:

601-1,200 = 0(3,900 -839)
451-600 =6,810(9,871-3061)
441-450= 8,739

Note: As cut off was 464, it means that the 6,810 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-464 only. Let's assume that 6,810 are distributed equally to 451-464 score range. Thus, it makes 6,810/14= 486 profiles per score.


So, by 16th October, the CRS distribution in the pool will be approximately:

601-1,200=658(47x14days)
451-600=9,400(6,810+2,590(185x14d)
441-450= 8,837 (8,739+98(7x14days))

Suppose that from the newly added 2,590 profile from 2nd Oct to 16th Oct, it will be distributed equally to (451 - 471to 600) as seen in the internal tracker. Thus,it will make 2,590/21=123profile/score.



With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 460-462
3,900 minus:
-658(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)

-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-486 (of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-68 (of 461 newly added score)



If there will be around 1,000 of people sitting at score range of 601-1200 before the next draw,then

With 3,900 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 461-462

3,900 minus:
-1,000(601-1200)
-123 (of 471-600 newly added score)
-123 (of 470 newly added score)
-123 (of 469 newly added score)
-123 (of 468 newly added score)
-123 (of 467 newly added score)

-123 (of 466 newly added score)
-123 (of 465 newly added score)
-486 (of 464 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 464 newly added score)
-486 (of 463 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 463 newly added score)
-486 (of 462 left after 2nd Oct draw)
-123 (of 462 newly added score)
-212 (of 486 of 461 left after 2nd Oct draw)
I really commend you on this... it takes some dedication and hard work to simulate this.
I really pray it comes as low as 460/461 though. So as to give those of us with lower score hope.
 

Sony K Koshy

Member
Oct 31, 2018
17
7
Kochi
Category........
FSW
Hi Friends,

Why the processing time of PNP nominated candidate takes long time for getting pr than a normal candidate who get ITA directly?