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Ray of Hope - 125th Draw

D

Dee1729

Star Member
Aug 13, 2019
143
49
Angel1113 said:
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on August 22th 12:20 pm UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 2): | Vaibhav_1989: 465 | Leftarmover: 461 |
  • 455-460 (Total 46) – | Milanarora: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | hamhk202: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | yg96: 457 | Dee1729: 457 | Thumper : 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | Indian dentist1: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | roadtofreedom16: 455 |
  • 454-450 (Total 55) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Woqi114: 451 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 63) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 43)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | tonyzz: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 7) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
Click to expand...

Please update my score to 463 from 457
 
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I

imusi

Star Member
Jun 3, 2019
193
131
Passport Req..
15-01-2020
jaibajrangbali said:
Guys,

Off topic question. I received my ITA in the last draw. I have completed all the section post ITA form except passport details for my son. I have applied his passport last week and it takes 6 weeks to get the passport. Should I wait or I can submit my application and once I have his passport then I can update the details with IRCC?

Thank you!
Click to expand...
If you have clicked on that little icon of instructions on the checklist page, you’ll see that IRCC says if the person does not have a valid passport then you should provide a national ID with photos, names etc. on it. So it is ok to provide national ID at the stage of eAPR. but I would say why not wait for several weeks and submit full documents? Submit national ID and get to AOR ASAP doesn’t seem necessary... unless your other docs are expiring very soon, such as IELTS etc..
 
ersandee

ersandee

Hero Member
Jul 12, 2017
790
276
Toronto
Category........
FSW
Visa Office......
NDVO
LANDED..........
25-03-2019
talhaansari said:
I applied for ITA with my passport expiring on 14 of December. I have already applied for a renewal and waiting for it.
Can I fill the PR application with my current passport and update when I get the new one.
Click to expand...
How long will it be to get new passport ? If its a week or so you can wait. Else you can update you passport anything during the process.
 
G

Gsaggy

Full Member
Jul 15, 2019
29
18
jaibajrangbali said:
Guys,

Off topic question. I received my ITA in the last draw. I have completed all the section post ITA form except passport details for my son. I have applied his passport last week and it takes 6 weeks to get the passport. Should I wait or I can submit my application and once I have his passport then I can update the details with IRCC?

Thank you!
Click to expand...
You can apply for a Tatkal passport by giving extra 2000 INR. It comes in 2-3 working days
 
I

imusi

Star Member
Jun 3, 2019
193
131
Passport Req..
15-01-2020
Dheana90 said:
Below are my estimation of CRS distribution and cut off score for 3rd Sep draw if it hapens on that date.

After 24th July draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued, the CRS score distribution would have been:

601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-407=3,193)
451-600 = 3,990 (7,183- 3,193)
441-450 =7,711

August 2, 2019 CRS distribution score range
601-1,200= 474
451-600= 6,821
441-450= 7,821

It means, in 9 days from 24th July to 2nd Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 52profile/day (474/9)
451-600 =314prof/day(6,821-3,990=2,831/9)
441-450 =20prof/day (7,821-7,711=263/13)

So, by 12th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =994 (474+520 (52x10days)
451-600 =9,961(6,821+3140(314x10days))
441-450 = 8,021(7,821+ 200(20x10days))

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 466, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-994=2,606)
451-600 = 4,215 (6,821- 2,606)
441-450 =8,021

Note: As cut off was 466, it means that the 4,215 left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-466 only.

August 15, 2019 CRS score range
601-1,200 =127
451-600 =7,038
441-450 =8,084

It means, in 3 days from 12th Aug to 15th Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 42profile/day (127/3)
451-600 =941prof/day(7,038-4,215=2,813/3)
441-450 =21prof/day (8,084-8,021=63/3)

As 941 profile per day is too high in range of 451-600, I will use previous 314 profile/day instead to calculate the profile added after 15 Aug to 20 Aug


So, by 20th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =337 (127+210(42x5days)
451-600 =8,608(7,038+1,570(314x5days))
441-450 = 8,189(8,084+ 105(21x5days))

After 20th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 457, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-337=3,263)
451-600 = 5,345(8,608-3,263)
441-450 =8,189

Note: As cut off was 457, it means that the 5,345 profiles left on 451-600 range are those who have score 451-457 only. Let's assume that 5,345 are distributed equally to 451-457 score range. Thus, it makes 5,345/7=763 profile per score.

So, by 3rd September, the score distribution will be approximately:
601-1,200 = 588 (42x 14days)
451-600 =9,741(5,345+4,396(314x14days))
441-450= 8,189(8,084+ 105(21x5days))

Suppose that from 4,396 newly added profile from 20th August to 3rd Sep, 2,198(50% of 4,396) are of score 458-600 and the other half are of 451-457 score range which will be distributed equally through. So, it makes 2,198/7=314 profile per score.

So, if CIC still gonna issue 3,600 ITAs the cut off score will be approximately 455-457
3,600 minus:
588(601-1200)
2,198 (of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
51(of 314 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)

with 3,900 ITA, the cut of score will be aporoximately 454-456.
3,900 minus:
588(601-1200)
2,198 (of 4,396 from 458-600 score range)
763(of 5,345 in 457score left on 20 Aug)
314(of 314 in 457 score added after 20 Aug)
37(of 763 in 456score left on 20 Aug)
Click to expand...
Excellent and detailed calculation, except for one small mistake (but you’ve managed to ignore it so it doesn’t affect the result much):

“So, by 12th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =994 (474+520 (52x10days)
451-600 =9,961(6,821+3140(314x10days))
441-450 = 8,021(7,821+ 200(20x10days))

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 466, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-994=2,606)
451-600 = 4,215 (6,821- 2,606) <— should be 9,961-2,606 = 7,355 here
441-450 =8,021

August 15, 2019 CRS score range
601-1,200 =127
451-600 =7,038
441-450 =8,084

It means, in 3 days from 12th Aug to 15th Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 42profile/day (127/3)
451-600 =941prof/day(7,038-4,215=2,813/3) <— here 7,038-7,355 = -317 < 0, which is not possible as the number of profiles should not decrease over time, therefore the only explanation is, by Aug 12 there weren’t as much as 7,355 profiles with CRS of 451+.

That is to say, the number of new 451+ profiles entering the pool on each day must dropped in the past fortnight... at least less than 314 per day. GOOD SIGN!
 
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I

Itas

Full Member
Aug 8, 2019
23
17
sameer318 said:
Sitting at 458. Was about to submit my OINP profile today. Now watching my email with a scotch in my hand...
Click to expand...
congrats,
in the same boat here. was about to submit OINP. sitting at 454 and don't know what to do now :D It can still turn into a risky proposition if I let this go.
 
J

jaibajrangbali

Star Member
Jun 18, 2019
98
21
Visa Office......
Ottawa
App. Filed.......
10-10-2019
AOR Received.
10-10-2019
File Transfer...
13-01-2020
imusi said:
If you have clicked on that little icon of instructions on the checklist page, you’ll see that IRCC says if the person does not have a valid passport then you should provide a national ID with photos, names etc. on it. So it is ok to provide national ID at the stage of eAPR. but I would say why not wait for several weeks and submit full documents? Submit national ID and get to AOR ASAP doesn’t seem necessary... unless your other docs are expiring very soon, such as IELTS etc..
Click to expand...
Thanks make sense. I will wait for the passport.
 
Dheana90

Dheana90

Hero Member
Apr 8, 2019
588
719
India
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
6332
imusi said:
Excellent and detailed calculation, except for one small mistake (but you’ve managed to ignore it so it doesn’t affect the result much):

“So, by 12th August, the score distribution would have been approximately:
601-1,200 =994 (474+520 (52x10days)
451-600 =9,961(6,821+3140(314x10days))
441-450 = 8,021(7,821+ 200(20x10days))

After 12th Aug draw, with 3,600 ITAs issued and cut off 466, the CRS score distribution would have been:
601-1,200 = 0 (3,600-994=2,606)
451-600 = 4,215 (6,821- 2,606) <— should be 9,961-2,606 = 7,355 here
441-450 =8,021

August 15, 2019 CRS score range
601-1,200 =127
451-600 =7,038
441-450 =8,084

It means, in 3 days from 12th Aug to 15th Aug, there were:

601-1,200 = 42profile/day (127/3)
451-600 =941prof/day(7,038-4,215=2,813/3) <— here 7,038-7,355 = -317 < 0, which is not possible as the number of profiles should not decrease over time, therefore the only explanation is, by Aug 12 there weren’t as much as 7,355 profiles with CRS of 451+.

That is to say, the number of new 451+ profiles entering the pool on each day must dropped in the past fortnight... at least less than 314 per day. GOOD SIGN!
Click to expand...

Thank you for pointing that out @imusi

I have been trying to find the reason for why the number of profiles decreased since morning and one possibility I could think of is that those 300+ profiles must have gotten PNP nominations so, their scores will obviously moved to the higher range(601-1200)
 
A

aagosh6188

Member
Apr 1, 2019
14
3
Angel1113 said:
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS
CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA (updated on August 22th 12:20 pm UTC):-
  • 460+ (Total 3): | Vaibhav_1989: 465 | Dee1729: 463 | Leftarmover: 461 |
  • 455-460 (Total 45) – | Milanarora: 457 | #EEC: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | sahils123: 457 | Hope457: 457 | vinoth388: 457 | y996: 457 | hamhk202: 457 | cromaine: 457 | Twindream: 457 | yg96: 457 | Thumper : 457 | Angel1113: 456 | cino86: 456 | Gsaggy: 456 | PrasadK: 456 | Silverwitch: 456 | tharibak: 456 | Hk07: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | brick8899: 456 | missusd:456 | Akshay10: 456 | Ishakharub: 456 | blessedveev: 456 | Maya53: 456 | Mitya-kun:456 | Eqbal: 456 | Jay2019: 456 | Priyanka2010: 456 | Indian dentist1: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | yigitsk: 455 | merlz: 455 | Manish Patel: 455 | Dream Come-True: 455 | Harsha009: 455 | ruha: 455 | dreamcanada0224: 455 | Khushi dhanoa: 455 | roadtofreedom16: 455 |
  • 454-450 (Total 55) - nadal87: 454 | johnlennonsouza: 454 | abdulkhadar.moh: 454 | chirag171987: 454 | SG1507: 454 | Mspa: 454 | SASH8288: 454 | thatguy1: 454 | snehamary007: 454 | ArsheyaBegum: 454 | itas: 454 | aun_syed: 454 | strawy96: 453 | Aigbemare: 453 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | jricardobt: 453 | guyshir: 453 | lignumvitae: 453 | jp3189n : 453 | Jak2019: 453 | Lizzybenzo: 453 | Tivativalu: 452 | daughty: 452 | Suhasrs: 452 | Jatinder_singh: 452 | delga: 452 | drrakeshdent: 452 | Catnat: 451 | Woqi114: 451 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | captainUT: 451 | Sharath957: 451 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450 | kuljeetklf: 450 | Ranjitrip: 450 | Hasrat123: 450 | JamesKang: 450 | AtitudeAdjustment: 450 | deepika450: 450 |
  • 445-449 (Total 63) - Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 | nitinkalra07: 449 | Sreedev83: 449 | ssimmigration19: 449 | Rohitbnaik: 449 | os32: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | panchalch2: 448 | Dewdrops1502: 448 | adil_0262: 448 | Shanky1202: 448 | Aartavsharma: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | sehgaljps: 447 | Stakesarehigh28: 447 | ExpressMan: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | CananEE123: 446 | prince_lords:445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 43)- Shaanoh: 444 | NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | nns14: 444 | theafjioman: 444 | Rohanisha: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| Lena32: 443 | CanucksRajiv : 443 | aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | tonyzz: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441 | Priya85: 441 | hardeepSingh: 441 | Sony K Koshy: 441 | WantToImmigrate: 441 | os32: 441 | vanibhoopathy: 441 |
  • 435-440 (Total 17) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435 | Hemilshah80: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 7) - Life79: 432 | kumsa83: 432 | Day2203: 431 | Kleverveld: 428 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
Click to expand...
Hi I am at 455.
 
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