Ray of Hope - 121st Draw

[crjusuf]

guys i'm really torn. i've already asked this question a million times but i'm still hesitant. I was at 450 and i lost to the tiebreaker. I managed to go up to 460 and only then the score jumped to 470. I have been waiting in the pool for 3 months now and i really can't take anymore bad surprises. A friend of mine keeps pressing me to re-sit for the ielts. I managed to get clb 9/9/10/10 without any preparation on my first try. If this time i get all 10s my score will go up to 466.
the next exam is scheduled for 7 july and the last date to sign up is 29 june. It can go either way; i sign up for IELTS and get drawn on july 10th anyway before even getting my results back OR the score doesn"t go below 461 for one or 2 draws so boosting my score even by 3 points will come in handy.

Decision is ultimately yours, however if I were in your shoes with a 460 I will wait because there is a high probability it will clear the next cutoff. On the other hand, if you have time and money to play for another IELTS test then why not try just because.

 

[crjusuf]

haha i have everything ready.. just need to go home and submit... then will update directly AOR

May I ask, how long ago did you have your medical exam? When did you get the result after the exam?

I'm wondering if I should have my medical exam next week so that I have it ready before the July 10 draw, or just wait for the draw result.

 

[Nsidhu]

May I ask, how long ago did you have your medical exam? When did you get the result after the exam?

I'm wondering if I should have my medical exam next week so that I have it ready before the July 10 draw, or just wait for the draw result.

i did in april... its valid for 1 year so you can do it.. whats your score

 

[DreamITA]

Decision is ultimately yours, however if I were in your shoes with a 460 I will wait because there is a high probability it will clear the next cutoff. On the other hand, if you have time and money to play for another IELTS test then why not try just because.

hahaha! i'm just trying to avoid any suprises. The last time i got really really close. I was at 450 when i entered the pool. 454 452 451 451 450 i was getting closer and closer and booom no draw for 4 weeks and the score goes up to 470. I feel like the same scenario is repeating itself 465 462 then 461 and something happens like a PNP draw, a 3 week draw hahaha.
This process made me so paranoid and overthink everything.

 

[crjusuf]

@Nsidhu I'm sitting pretty at 461 until July 28, so assuming regular biweekly draws I have 2 more chances.

Medical result is valid for one year and within that time I have to land in Canada, correct?

 

[a16107]

guys i'm really torn. i've already asked this question a million times but i'm still hesitant. I was at 450 and i lost to the tiebreaker. I managed to go up to 460 and only then the score jumped to 470. I have been waiting in the pool for 3 months now and i really can't take anymore bad surprises. A friend of mine keeps pressing me to re-sit for the ielts. I managed to get clb 9/9/10/10 without any preparation on my first try. If this time i get all 10s my score will go up to 466.
the next exam is scheduled for 7 july and the last date to sign up is 29 june. It can go either way; i sign up for IELTS and get drawn on july 10th anyway before even getting my results back OR the score doesn"t go below 461 for one or 2 draws so boosting my score even by 3 points will come in handy.

just wait for next draw

 

[crjusuf]

hahaha! i'm just trying to avoid any suprises. The last time i got really really close. I was at 450 when i entered the pool. 454 452 451 451 450 i was getting closer and closer and booom no draw for 4 weeks and the score goes up to 470. I feel like the same scenario is repeating itself 465 462 then 461 and something happens like a PNP draw, a 3 week draw hahaha.
This process made me so paranoid and overthink everything.

I feel you! In all seriousness, if I can boost my CRS I would do it in a heartbeat. Of course that relates to how much time, money and effort needed to get the extra score.

I see you have TEF, so bilingual english and french?! I'd love to get points for french language but I will need quite a bit of time to learn the language

 

[Angel1113]

guys i'm really torn. i've already asked this question a million times but i'm still hesitant. I was at 450 and i lost to the tiebreaker. I managed to go up to 460 and only then the score jumped to 470. I have been waiting in the pool for 3 months now and i really can't take anymore bad surprises. A friend of mine keeps pressing me to re-sit for the ielts. I managed to get clb 9/9/10/10 without any preparation on my first try. If this time i get all 10s my score will go up to 466.
the next exam is scheduled for 7 july and the last date to sign up is 29 june. It can go either way; i sign up for IELTS and get drawn on july 10th anyway before even getting my results back OR the score doesn"t go below 461 for one or 2 draws so boosting my score even by 3 points will come in handy.

You will get an ITA in next draw or after that for sure so no need.

 

[jricardobt]

Can anyone please tell why there has not been AINP draws since May?

 

[Nsidhu]

@Nsidhu I'm sitting pretty at 461 until July 28, so assuming regular biweekly draws I have 2 more chances.

Medical result is valid for one year and within that time I have to land in Canada, correct?

you will get through in next draw,, yes it should be valid when you land

 

[DreamITA]

I feel you! In all seriousness, if I can boost my CRS I would do it in a heartbeat. Of course that relates to how much time, money and effort needed to get the extra score.

I see you have TEF, so bilingual english and french?! I'd love to get points for french language but I will need quite a bit of time to learn the language

Actually trilingual French is my 2nd langue and English is my 3rd. Give it a try. 66% of English is borrowed from French so that will make it easier to learn besides speaking French will open many doors for you when in Canada.

 

[Dheana90]

"
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of June 7, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 288
451-600 5,646
441-450 6,315

It means, in 9 days from 29th May to 7th June, there were:

601-1,200 = 32profile/day (288/9)
451-600 =271profile/day(5,646-3203 = 2443/9)
441-450 =29profile/day (6,315-6052=263/9)"

Keep in mind that the published number of candidates on the 29th of May was as at the previous Friday (24 May), so you should be using 14 days and not 9 when working out the number of candidates per day. It sometimes makes more sense when you do these calcs in a spreadsheet so you can check your numbers.

My predicted cut-off is also between 458 and 460 at 3350 ITAs, but if there is an influx as a result of those PNPs it could be 461.

You must have started following Ray Of Hope recently hey?

I actually made the estimation of CRS distribution for today's draw based on the published previous CRS score distributions as fafr as 10th of May CRS data. So, there is a reason why I didn't use 14 days for my calculation. I just didn't paste it in this calculation because I thought it is irrelevant now and people who have been following ROH 120 and saw my previous estimation would understand where these numbers come from.

Anyway, I will post it again the first half of my estimation from ROH 120 here so I hope you understand now.

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 10, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 317
451-600 1,668
441-450 5,360

CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
441-450 5,872

Means in 14 days from May 10th to May 24th there were about:

601-1,200: (729-317= 412/14days = 29profile/day

451-600: (4624-1668=2957/14days = 211profile/day)

441-450: (5872-5360 = 510/14days = 36profile/day

So, by 29th May, the distribution will be approximately:

600-1200: 729 + 145 (29profile x 5days) = 874

451-600: 4,624 + 1055(211profilex5days ) = 5679

441-450: 5872 + 180(36profilex5day) =6052

Number of nvitation issued on 29th May is 3350. So, the 874profile with 600+points would have all received ITA. (3350-874 =2476)

Remaining 2476 will be taken from 451-600point range. So 5679-2476= 3203.

Therefore, after the invitation round on 29th May,the score distribution would be:

600+ = 0
451-600 =3203
441-450=6052

Edit:
You can check my original post of the estimation on ROH 120 page 11, the 5th last threat @Dark_Night

 

[Angel1113]

Am on 452 and am really sure i will get ITA by first or last draw of august.

Like your positivity.

 

[Angel1113]

I politely disagree with above calculations on below point:
The calculation 2915/9 = 323.xxx doesn’t look correct i.e the figure 2915 is wrong.

Correct calculation is below:
451+ on 7th jun: 5646+288= 5934
Considering previous per day addition, 451+ added in next 5 days: 303*5= 1515
Hence 451+ on 12th June: 5934+ 1515= 7449
451+ after 12th June draw: 7449-3350= 4099
451+ on 21st June: 5980+285= 6265
Addition from 12th to 26th June: 6265-4099= 2166
Per day addition in 9 days: 2166/9= 241

Great to see it decreased from 303 to 241

Can somebody check, is ielts result date playing any role in these fluctuations?
Ielts results announced from 12 th to 21st jun= ????
Ielts results announced from 22nd to 26th June =????
It would be of great help if somebody helps to get this data.

We need to figure out why per day score changed from 240 to 303 and then back to 240.

One more thing, looking at just 2.28 CRS points decrease from 465 to 462, I am sure that per day addition was not 240 from 21st June to 26th June, it must have been much higher

I may be wrong in above calculation, any correction is welcomed. Let us correct each other and improve!

What are your predictions for next draw??

 

[crjusuf]

you will get through in next draw,, yes it should be valid when you land

Thank you!