Ray of Hope - 120th Draw

[nadal87]

When will CRS drop to 458?

It’s very difficult to predict approximate scores right now as May 29th draw has turned the tables against us. Who would have thought that CRS would rise to 470 from 450 in just 4 weeks?

It’s also very difficult to guess next cut-off since it’s impossible to determine what is the next trick up CIC’s sleeve. We can draw all kinds of tables and charts and try to guess the next cut-off, but chances are that they will be off by a huge margin.

If they continue to conduct bi-weekly draws with same # of ITA’s your turn can come up as soon as next month, if they increase the # of ITA’s you could see an ITA in the very next draw. Or, the opposite might happen if they reduce ITA’s or don’t conduct draws regularly. I hope you get my point, no one can predict or guess what’s going to happen in next draw, it’s very ambiguous and it’s best to wait out your turn instead of panicking.

I’m hoping for the best, not only for myself and you, but for people sitting at 440’s as well. I really, really, really hope that CIC increases the # of ITA’s going forward.

 

[madhav_91]

Question about indian PCC. I live in Texas and applied for Indian PCC at Houston.
They emailed me saying PVR (Police verification request) is not complete and would need to get clearance from RPO , Hyderabad.

Does anyone why why this happening and how much time it usually takes ?

 

[BLACKPILL]

I'm 461, but I believe 462 will be the cut-off.
To reach 461, we need to clean more than 36 weeks of accumulated profiles, which is unrealistic in my opinion.

Note: This is considering a fairly uniform distribution in profiles between 461-470 range.

Update: When I say 36 weeks on Jun 26th to reach 461, is about the pink part:
2 weeks of accumulated profiles for 470-1200 +
2 weeks of accumulated profiles for 469 +
2 weeks of accumulated profiles for 468 +
2 weeks of accumulated profiles for 467 +
2 weeks of accumulated profiles for 466 +
2 weeks of accumulated profiles for 465 +
8 weeks of accumulated profiles for 464 +
8 weeks of accumulated profiles for 463 +
8 weeks of accumulated profiles for 462 +
---------------------------------------------------------
= 36 weeks of profiles accumulated from 462-1200

The draw in Jun, 12th cleaned around 29±3 weeks of accumulated profiles. My prediction is based on this number and the uniform distribution of in that range (461-470).

The pile up is a vague idea and it looks scary! But we only had around 2500 left after June 12th draw. 2500 people or 8 weeks of carryover, the latter sounds more scary. Look at the numbers and your ranking in the pool! It helps better

 

[Mutchas]

The pile up is a vague idea and it looks scary! But we only had around 2500 left after June 12th draw. 2500 people or 8 weeks of carryover, the latter sounds more scary. Look at the numbers and your ranking in the pool! It helps better

It's scary, I agree. But the only thing that avoided the score to go lower than 465 last draw was exactly the combination of piled profiles and inflow of high score candidates...
I'm really hoping to be wrong

 

[Angel1113]

No maintenance notice yet. Isn't it usually up by friday night?

 

[BLACKPILL]

It's scary, I agree. But the only thing that avoided the score to go lower than 465 last draw was exactly the combination of piled profiles and inflow of high score candidates...
I'm really hoping to be wrong

Think about it this way, even with a higher influx of 460+ candidates, the CRS point decreased by 5 points! If I follow your logic the point should still be at 470. I doubt this influx is constant for future so I believe it should reach 450s by the middle of September. One thing to bare in mind is the PNP or Skilled worker draw potentially could happen at the end of September, and that could lead to another surge of CRS points. However according to last year's schedule after September the draws will continue till early next year without disturbance. I am counting on my 456 to be drawn by the first draw of September.

 

[daughty]

So what's the final consensus? Predicted scores?

I finally get my ECA on 4th July - which means I'll lose 5 points and my score will come down to 452 once I enter the pool. My husband refuses to retake his ielts. If he does and he gets a CLB10, our score will jump to 461 till 13th July and then down to 457. He's being super stubborn about it so I guess we'll be at 452.. Any chance that score can make it soon enough?

 

[Punitsingh]

Maintenance notice is not up!
Holiday on Monday.
Are we going for a 3 week draw...

 

[sarak1812]

Maintenance notice is not up!
Holiday on Monday.
Are we going for a 3 week draw...

 

[EESH]

Maintenance notice is not up!
Holiday on Monday.
Are we going for a 3 week draw...

Don't worry, the draw will come.

We shouldn't focus too much on the maintenance notice, of course everyone tries to make some predictions, but the most logical explanation is that it has nothing to do with the draws.

As a fun-fact, some time ago people thought that if there is a notice, there will be NO draw. See https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/draws-pattern-know-when-there-will-be-a-draw.480148/#post-5995365

 

[Punitsingh]

Don't worry, the draw will come.

We shouldn't focus too much on the maintenance notice, of course everyone tries to make some predictions, but the most logical explanation is that it has nothing to do with the draws.

As a fun-fact, some time ago people thought that if there is a notice, there will be NO draw. See https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/draws-pattern-know-when-there-will-be-a-draw.480148/#post-5995365

Great piece of information!
I also believe that a site/system can’t be so rubbish in today’s technology, that someone has to bring the complete system down , just to select 3350 top candidates from database. This is very simple and regular excercise which can be done while system is up.
System must be brought down for some enhancements only not for a regular exercise like draw.

So maintenance notice have no link with draw, conducting a draw should be inbuilt feature of website (just a single click) without bringing it down

Let’s see

 

[Prabhjot09]

I think it is required on company’s letter head

Yeah it is required but only if you get it from hr or ur manager. But m asking about alternative where senior or same scale colleague comes in?

 

[lazarus]

Yeah..here the problem is i am the branch manager and my zonal manager is not willing to provide me reference.
And i am stuck.

You can ask for the experience letter. Write to the Central Office / Head Office. If its a Govt. PSU, you need to keep acknowledgements / receipts of your request for follow up, because of the way they work.

 

[dotslash227]

I can give letter as reference is just to verify the roles and responsibilities but to my subordinates. But to another branch manager i can, in my power ,but is it valid with ircc?

IRCC will verify that you are an employee or not once you have submitted your profile. I would encourage you to submit the reference letter by your colleague (which should be on an official letterhead with his contact information and credentials) along with other proof's that I had mentioned earlier.

 

[lazarus]

Yeah it is required but only if you get it from hr or ur manager. But m asking about alternative where senior or same scale colleague comes in?

You can take references from your seniors / collegues on plain paper, and get it notarised to prove it is genuine. Also, do take their visiting cards & copy of company ID.