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Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
720
408
Toronto
First of all, higher CRS equals the best applicant is a total rubbish. Its the popular understanding but not true. It can however, in most cases, be equated to a younger applicant. Mind you, even a PHd holder gets more than 456 and he's not young but is meritorious. CIC can still boast of admitting high calibre candidates as they would have maintained a 450+ cutoff. So if that's the objective then they tick that one off.

From the other perspective, if they cared so much about higher CRS then 438 & 439 would not have been possible. It looks largely true now that second half of the year is a game-changer and would make or break. Surely many would lose points but I suppose that must be happening to many and the spread of such loss would be uniform throughout the year. Surely, 445 and below would be worst hit by that. It seems like CIC is making their own 'Endgame'.
There is no easy solution to determine the best fit. Neither age, nor qualification, nor CRS.

Two major flaws in the current system:

1. No weight to the quality of degree: An MBA from Harvard Business School gets lower Education points than a PhD in Anthropology from Osmania University. Clearly, the former has better job prospects.

2. Unjustified classification of education based on Bachelors, Masters etc.. There are millions of software developers who are just Bachelor's because their profession does not require a Masters degree. Are they not as good for Canada as a Masters in Business Administration? In fact, it is easiest for these software developers (Bachelors alone) to find jobs in Canada in comparison to other professions.

The senior most Partner in my company is just a Bachelor. Bill Gates was a dropout. There are numerous examples to put forward in the support of no significant co-relation between level of education and employability.

The solution is difficult because it is very difficult to rank institutions. The examples I quoted were extreme ones, but in reality, the difference is little less.

Having said that, this is just one of those things in life where we have no control. The rules of the game are set and we need to play according to the rules!
 
Last edited:

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
720
408
Toronto
There is no easy solution to determine the best fit. Neither age, nor qualification, nor CRS.

Two major flaws in the current system:

1. No weight to the quality of degree: An MBA from Harvard Business School gets lower Education points than a PhD in Anthropology from Osmania University. Clearly, the former has better job prospects.

2. Unjustified classification of education based on Bachelors, Masters etc.. There are millions of software developers who are just Bachelor's because their profession does not require a Masters degree. Are they not as good for Canada as a Masters in Business Administration? In fact, it is easiest for these software developers (Bachelors alone) to find jobs in Canada in comparison to other professions.

The senior most Partner in my company is just a Bachelor. Bill Gates was a dropout. There are numerous examples to put forward in the support of no significant co-relation between level of education and employability.

The solution is difficult because it is very difficult to rank institutions. The examples I quoted were extreme ones, but in reality, the difference is little less.

Having said that, this is just one of those things in life where we have no control. The rules of the game are set and we need to play according to the rules!
Consider this analogy:

Spectacles are used by folks with sub-optimal vision. Spectacles don't make that person more handsome or beautiful than the one without it :)

Spectacles == Masters degree

Most people, including me, went for Masters only when Bachelors alone was not giving good employability.
 
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AB17

Star Member
Apr 4, 2019
180
98
Our education system is flawed it is more about rote learning than analytical thinking... Frankly, our bachelors are not sufficient and when coupled with master only the it becomes equivalent of abroad dual degree...
 

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
Yea so not exactly guess. But have calculated based on the predicting the no of high scorers entering the pool as well as based on previous year scenarios
Assumptions in my calculation:
1. ITA to be issued : 3350
2. 451+ candidates added per day: 240
3. 470+ added per day: 120
4. 451-470 added per day: 120
5. Distributed 120 equally on 451-470
6. Considered backlog from May 1 to 12th jun
7. Considered the leftovers from last draw

You must have assumed something different than mentioned above to get different CRS, please share that difference
 

LKRYA

Hero Member
Mar 8, 2018
263
241
I feel ITAs will surely increased from next draw onward. 3500 or may be even higher to 4000. probably take some time to clear the pile. but they should drop low to send ITAs for all who deserve to have one in this ROH group.
 
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LKRYA

Hero Member
Mar 8, 2018
263
241
Assumptions in my calculation:
1. ITA to be issued : 3350
2. 451+ candidates added per day: 240
3. 470+ added per day: 120
4. 451-470 added per day: 120
5. Distributed 120 equally on 451-470
6. Considered backlog from May 1 to 12th jun
7. Considered the leftovers from last draw

You must have assumed something different than mentioned above to get different CRS, please share that difference
I agree this is the best assumption anyone can do. However, we all know the spread between scores are not equally distributed. Therefore, I still believe to expect a bigger drop than 466.
I too trust it will be 462 with +1 variance. If more ITAs (3900) it will drop further to 460 +1.
but when it comes to 450-455 range density is so high. Therefore, even with 2 weeks regular draws will struggle to drop. So more ITAs is the best hope we could pray for.
 

sarak1812

Hero Member
May 21, 2019
300
67
Assumptions in my calculation:
1. ITA to be issued : 3350
2. 451+ candidates added per day: 240
3. 470+ added per day: 120
4. 451-470 added per day: 120
5. Distributed 120 equally on 451-470
6. Considered backlog from May 1 to 12th jun
7. Considered the leftovers from last draw

You must have assumed something different than mentioned above to get different CRS, please share that difference
I am considering
ITA : 3350
No of candidates added for 451+ around 255 per day
Backlog from 29th May to 12th June

Also I just took Feb 2019 scenario as in in Feb the cutoff was 457 which came downnto 454 in next draw.

Feb 2019 spike in crs was due to 4 week gap.

In subsequent 5 draws the score came down to 450 from 457
So on 7th August which is the 5th draw i am hoping the score to come down to 462 +1/-1

And on 22nd Aug which I am hoping is golden draw for 460 scorers and chances of score coming down to 456 or 457 or 458
Or worst case 459.

After that again wait for PNP and then the score will increase as per the trend of last year.
 

Punitsingh

Hero Member
Jul 27, 2018
549
403
I am considering
ITA : 3350
No of candidates added for 451+ around 255 per day
Backlog from 29th May to 12th June

Also I just took Feb 2019 scenario as in in Feb the cutoff was 457 which came downnto 454 in next draw.

Feb 2019 spike in crs was due to 4 week gap.

In subsequent 5 draws the score came down to 450 from 457
So on 7th August which is the 5th draw i am hoping the score to come down to 462 +1/-1

And on 22nd Aug which I am hoping is golden draw for 460 scorers and chances of score coming down to 456 or 457 or 458
Or worst case 459.

After that again wait for PNP and then the score will increase as per the trend of last year.
I disagree on below points:
1. How u assumed per day addition of 451+ as 255?
From 1st May to 10th May it was 198 per day
From 10th May to 24 th May it was 240 per day
In months prior to May it was in range of 200- 240
I assumed the peak case 240

2. Very wrong to compare the fall from 457 to 450 with the decrease from 470 to 460 , below is the reason:
When cut off reached to 450 it had to clear all 451+ candidates so fall from 457 to 450 was slow
When cut-off will reach to Let’s say 460 it need to clear all 461+ plus candidates only
So it will be faster than clearing all 451+ candidates. Hence don’t compare with that
However after 460 it will slow down tremendously due to accumulation
 
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13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,162
Canada
CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

(Updated till 1:00 PM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:

  • 460+ (Total 15) - kevwe91: 493 | vgm10689: 470 | KayPi: 468 | ravinder_singh:468 | johanex: 468 | mahmod2020: 465 | Ontario@Canada: 463 | Jabya: 463 | ashwin863: 462 | huesso: 462 | Mr_fabrizio: 462 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461 | parth7d: 461 | Yukti2406: 461
  • 455-460 (Total 17) – DreamITA: 460 | ryeCatcher: 460 | Punitsingh: 459 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | #EEC: 457 | sarak1812: 457 | Priyasehgal22: 457 | tharibak: 456 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Jasmine1998: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | Nsidhu: 455 | Folaroyal: 455
  • 450-454 (Total 28) - chirag171987: 454 | atuls: 454 | Sindhuja Karthikeyan: 453 | madhav_91: 453 | vivosvoco: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | sehgaljps: 452 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | praveen22: 451 | captainUT: 451 | tonydlaw24: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450
  • 445-449 (Total 57) - Shaanoh: 449 | Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | NMS@: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | Ranjitrip: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | LKRYA: 447 | Not_Your_Donkey_Kong: 446 | Rafahul: 446 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | Sreedev83: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445
  • 441-444 (Total 31) - NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Dirup: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441
  • 435-440 (Total 16) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | rovar473: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435
  • Below 435 (Total 5) - Life79: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421
Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.
 

13nitinsharma

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2012
2,568
3,162
Canada
Hi Experts..
PNP program specific draw is still pending for the year right?
YES. If your refer to the recent most update by Ontario, they've clearly mentioned:

In 2019:
  • Ontario received an allocation of 6,650 nominations and additional 250 nominations specifically for temporary foreign workers in intermediate skilled occupations (National Occupational Classification [NOC] - Skill Level C) through the federal government’s NOC C initiative
  • as of May 9, 2019, 2,532 nominations have been issued
https://www.ontario.ca/page/oinp-application-processing-times-and-nominations-issued