Ray of Hope - 114th Draw

[Kawar47]

Great congratulations. I didnt realize you had an inner know how of how IRCC works. Heres the breakdown for last year based on number of ITAs :

# OF ITAs ISSUED IN 2018 FOR EACH DRAW

Jan 10th - 2750
Jan 24th - 2750
Feb 7th - 3000
Feb 24th - 3000
March 14th - 3000
March 26th - 3000
April 11th - 3500
April 25th - 3500
May 9th - 3500
May 23rd - 3500
June 13th - 3750
June 25th - 3750
July 11th - 3750
July 25th - 3750
Aug 8th - 3750
Aug 22nd - 3750
Sept 5th - 3900
Sept 19th - 3500
Oct 3rd - 3900
Oct 15th - 3900
Oct 29th - 3900
Nov 14th - 3900
Nov 28th - 3900
Dec 12th - 3900
Dec 19th - 3900

My only point was they OBVIOUSLY ramp up the numbers. It is a clear pattern.

Good point . Thanks for the information.

 

[Kawar47]

My score is 447 and my birthday is on 31 july, on that date i would lose 4 points and my score would be 443. What are my chances. Please help

 

[Kawar47]

Last year total ITA 89000.
This year still 20 draws left. So 3350*20 =67000 and they already send 22550 ITAs .

67000+22550 = 89550 .
There target is in between 80000-90000.
Cheers.
Stop giving wrong hopes.

I think only 18 more draws are left if we go by previous year numbers posted by the other member. So if you calculate by dividing that number by 18, it comes to be 3700 per draw. So why not we believe that there will be an extra draw in any of the months or an increase in ITAs? Just based on calculation.

 

[veritas1994]

Last year total ITA 89000.
This year still 20 draws left. So 3350*20 =67000 and they already send 22550 ITAs .

67000+22550 = 89550 .
There target is in between 80000-90000.
Cheers.
Stop giving wrong hopes.

Heres what I have to say. The rejection rate is an unknown variable.

For FSW, FST and CEC all together target for 2018 was 74900, and for 2019 it is 81400.
(https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-multi-year-immigration-plan-2018-2021.html?_ga=2.103344576.1527671542.1554333821-258262585.1554198515)

As the year goes by, they have a better idea of how many PR applicationss have been successful that year and they are able to revise ITAs issued based on that.

But obviously I am not a 100% sure. Nobody is giving wrong hope. This is all probability. I am not talking about CRS cutoffs dropping to 438 again. But just about how quickly cutoff can drop from 450 to ~447-448. At least I understand how probability works and can temper my confidence in my predictions. Having absolute faith in your predictions without 100% knowledge of things is not smart.

Lastly, I have no intention of increasing toxicity in my life by continuing a conversation with you. Lets go our own ways. You are hereby ignored. Have a good day.

 

[keyur sharma]

I think only 18 more draws are left if we go by previous year numbers posted by the other member. So if you calculate by dividing that number by 18, it comes to be 3700 per draw. So why not we believe that there will be an extra draw in any of the months or an increase in ITAs? Just based on calculation.

I counted 20 draws because I think there will be back to backdraws 2 times. And this is just calculation. What I strongly suggest to people don’t reliable on anyone’s calculation and try to increase your score. Try to be in poll with above 448 .

 

[veritas1994]

I counted 20 draws because I think there will be back to backdraws 2 times. And this is just calculation. What I strongly suggest to people don’t reliable on anyone’s calculation and try to increase your score. Try to be in poll with above 448 .

Thats always a good suggestion. I wasnt trying to make people relaxed. People should continue to strive for higher points

 

[Kawar47]

Thats always a good suggestion. I wasnt trying to make people relaxed. People should continue to strive for higher points

Yea you should not make people relaxed but why make anyone loose hope? If we are making predictions here, then why not make a positive and negative both. Crossing out the positives and making only negative predictions is not good.

 

[Kawar47]

I counted 20 draws because I think there will be back to backdraws 2 times. And this is just calculation. What I strongly suggest to people don’t reliable on anyone’s calculation and try to increase your score. Try to be in poll with above 448 .

So if there will be back to back draws, score must go down then. I am 447 and my score will be 443 after july 31 (my birthday). Hoping for back to back draws

 

[PS_001]

Can someone please share the link to join Ray of Hope 115. Thanks.

 

[hakweye]

Last year total ITA 89000.
This year still 20 draws left. So 3350*20 =67000 and they already send 22550 ITAs .

67000+22550 = 89550 .
There target is in between 80000-90000.
Cheers.
Stop giving wrong hopes.

Based on below stats the low target is 76,000 for FSW, FST, CEC + low PNP target is 57,000 . All draws till now included FSW, FST, CEC, PNP.
Not sure how are we assuming the target is only 89000 ITA this year, may be i'm missing something here.


https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-multi-year-immigration-plan-2018-2021.html#gs.495eu2

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html

 

[hakweye]

Heres what I have to say. The rejection rate is an unknown variable.

For FSW, FST and CEC all together target for 2018 was 74900, and for 2019 it is 81400.
(https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-multi-year-immigration-plan-2018-2021.html?_ga=2.103344576.1527671542.1554333821-258262585.1554198515)

As the year goes by, they have a better idea of how many PR applicationss have been successful that year and they are able to revise ITAs issued based on that.

But obviously I am not a 100% sure. Nobody is giving wrong hope. This is all probability. I am not talking about CRS cutoffs dropping to 438 again. But just about how quickly cutoff can drop from 450 to ~447-448. At least I understand how probability works and can temper my confidence in my predictions. Having absolute faith in your predictions without 100% knowledge of things is not smart.

Lastly, I have no intention of increasing toxicity in my life by continuing a conversation with you. Lets go our own ways. You are hereby ignored. Have a good day.

All draws till now included PNP , shouldn't we discount them ? All we can do is speculate what could be final number of ITA that is going to be issued.

 

[skg1988]

Yea you should not make people relaxed but why make anyone loose hope? If we are making predictions here, then why not make a positive and negative both. Crossing out the positives and making only negative predictions is not good.

Exactly! I don't understand how keyur sharma calculated 20 draws. Adding one more draw between a 2 gap draw will result 3 draws in a row. He also ignored 600+ candidates which count under PNP and at present they are around 12%.
There will be an increase in the ITAs, however, it is difficult to say when.

 

[Kawar47]

Exactly! I don't understand how keyur sharma calculated 20 draws. Adding one more draw between a 2 gap draw will result 3 draws in a row. He also ignored 600+ candidates which count under PNP and at present they are around 12%.
There will be an increase in the ITAs, however, it is difficult to say when.

Exactly

 

[keyur sharma]

Heres what I have to say. The rejection rate is an unknown variable.

For FSW, FST and CEC all together target for 2018 was 74900, and for 2019 it is 81400.
(https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-multi-year-immigration-plan-2018-2021.html?_ga=2.103344576.1527671542.1554333821-258262585.1554198515)

As the year goes by, they have a better idea of how many PR applicationss have been successful that year and they are able to revise ITAs issued based on that.

But obviously I am not a 100% sure. Nobody is giving wrong hope. This is all probability. I am not talking about CRS cutoffs dropping to 438 again. But just about how quickly cutoff can drop from 450 to ~447-448. At least I understand how probability works and can temper my confidence in my predictions. Having absolute faith in your predictions without 100% knowledge of things is not smart.

Lastly, I have no intention of increasing toxicity in my life by continuing a conversation with you. Lets go our own ways. You are hereby ignored. Have a good day.

Based on below stats the low target is 76,000 for FSW, FST, CEC + low PNP target is 57,000 . All draws till now included FSW, FST, CEC, PNP.
Not sure how are we assuming the target is only 89000 ITA this year, may be i'm missing something here.


https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-multi-year-immigration-plan-2018-2021.html#gs.495eu2

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2019.html

PNP people (57000) will get 600 points and than they apply under express entry so total ITA numbers includes PNPs. And ya for PNP they are never going to send 57000 in total. Quebec system is different you can’t cinsuder them. Ontario send around 6000-8000 Nominees in a year and .

 

[keyur sharma]

So if there will be back to back draws, score must go down then. I am 447 and my score will be 443 after july 31 (my birthday). Hoping for back to back draws

I don’t see score this year will go below 445 at all even with back to back. By the way My birthday is also 31st July. And ya if you get Invitation from any Province (If you applied) than accept it.