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Ray of Hope 111th draw

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,594
3,021
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
In Last draw 450+ there are only 350 applications. I am not sure if there will be 3500+ applications logged in with scores above 450+. Just a thought provoking question
The last draw data you have provided is incorrect.

On the Jan 23rd draw, all applicants with CRS 450+ got ITA, so nobody in the pool existed with 450+ on Jan 23rd after the draw took place. The data on Jan 25th shows 391 applicants in the pool with 450+ which means 391 applicants got added to the pool with CRS 450+ in 2 days. So, using simple calculation, you can estimate how many might get added in 21 days.

I am using historical data to obtain average intake to the pool to calculate the cut off. So, unless a miracle happens the cut off would be around my predicted value.
 

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
622
394
Mumbai
Visa Office......
Mumbai
NOC Code......
1112
App. Filed.......
03-05-2019
AOR Received.
03-05-2019
The draw rarely occurs post 2:30 pm UTC.

I don't think it will happen today. It may happen tomorrow or next week or sometime later this year in the worst case.
 

EricD

Star Member
Jan 31, 2019
82
43
I don't know who you are If that happens I make sure I will find you and give u a treat if that really happens. My score is at 436. Looking for a God wonder
Wow keep that promise my dear friend! If they just want to reduce backlog, I would say it’s not bad to wait cause they will have to either increase the pace of draws or number of ITA per draw to make up for previous long gaps between draws
Remember: whatever the pace is, if the rate of inflow into the EE pool is unchanged, an increased ITA target in 2019 (by 10% I remember?) means lower CRS at the end! [BUT I do recognize some will be hurt due Age score lost]
 
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Shaanoh

Hero Member
Nov 2, 2018
279
232
The last draw data you have provided is incorrect.

On the Jan 23rd draw, all applicants with CRS 450+ got ITA, so nobody in the pool existed with 450+ on Jan 23rd after the draw took place. The data on Jan 25th shows 391 applicants in the pool with 450+ which means 391 applicants got added to the pool with CRS 450+ in 2 days. So, using simple calculation, you can estimate how many might get added in 21 days.

I am using historical data to obtain average intake to the pool to calculate the cut off. So, unless a miracle happens the cut off would be around my predicted value.
With due respect @abhishek_89, I still believe there won't be 3000 people with a CRS above 450 currently in the pool. I think the cut off if the draw happens today will be between 445-449. Just an opinion.

Cheers
Shan
 
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canstar.kites

Member
Feb 20, 2019
10
4
The last draw data you have provided is incorrect.

On the Jan 23rd draw, all applicants with CRS 450+ got ITA, so nobody in the pool existed with 450+ on Jan 23rd after the draw took place. The data on Jan 25th shows 391 applicants in the pool with 450+ which means 391 applicants got added to the pool with CRS 450+ in 2 days. So, using simple calculation, you can estimate how many might get added in 21 days.

I am using historical data to obtain average intake to the pool to calculate the cut off. So, unless a miracle happens the cut off would be around my predicted value.
Thank you for clarifying me. So if i get this right there is no way we will know how many are there in the pool . All we get is information on how many more added post that particular draw.
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,594
3,021
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
The draw rarely occurs post 2:30 pm UTC.

I don't think it will happen today. It may happen tomorrow or next week or sometime later this year in the worst case.
Please note the actual draw time mentioned for each draw is always a few hours before they publish it on the CIC website. For example, if draw occurs at 2:30 PM UTC, they might publish it on the CIC website around 4:30 PM UTC.
 

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
622
394
Mumbai
Visa Office......
Mumbai
NOC Code......
1112
App. Filed.......
03-05-2019
AOR Received.
03-05-2019
Thank you for clarifying me. So if i get this right there is no way we will know how many are there in the pool . All we get is information on how many more added post that particular draw.

Not really, we do get to know
 

LKRYA

Hero Member
Mar 8, 2018
245
239
The last draw data you have provided is incorrect.

On the Jan 23rd draw, all applicants with CRS 450+ got ITA, so nobody in the pool existed with 450+ on Jan 23rd after the draw took place. The data on Jan 25th shows 391 applicants in the pool with 450+ which means 391 applicants got added to the pool with CRS 450+ in 2 days. So, using simple calculation, you can estimate how many might get added in 21 days.

I am using historical data to obtain average intake to the pool to calculate the cut off. So, unless a miracle happens the cut off would be around my predicted value.
I think this with the IELTS results. There were two exam results from the last draw. +many more with CD based exams. Something majorly wrong with the targets and the draws.
 
Feb 20, 2019
16
6
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2174
With due respect @abhishek_89, I still believe there won't be 3000 people with a CRS above 450 currently in the pool. I think the cut off if the draw happens today will be between 445-449. Just an opinion.

Cheers
Shan
Yes. I agree with this. Even I don't think there will be 3000+ guys with 450 points.
If there is a draw to today, It can be somewhere between 443-447
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,594
3,021
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
With due respect @abhishek_89, I still believe there won't be 3000 people with a CRS above 450 currently in the pool. I think the cut off if the draw happens today will be between 445-449. Just an opinion.

Cheers
Shan
I could be wrong. I am just using the available data for my calculations.
 

SeniorStakes

Hero Member
Nov 7, 2018
622
394
Mumbai
Visa Office......
Mumbai
NOC Code......
1112
App. Filed.......
03-05-2019
AOR Received.
03-05-2019
The man who is responsible to update the CIC website seems to be on leave. The draw might have already happened.
 

abhishek_89

Champion Member
Feb 9, 2017
1,594
3,021
Toronto, Canada
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2173
App. Filed.......
26-05-2017
AOR Received.
26-05-2017
Med's Done....
22-05-2017
Passport Req..
24-07-2017
VISA ISSUED...
04-08-2017
LANDED..........
16-03-2018
Thank you for clarifying me. So if i get this right there is no way we will know how many are there in the pool . All we get is information on how many more added post that particular draw.
Yes, the only data we get is the number of applicants in the pool on a specific date before the draw.