[Opinion]How will the 2017 Canadian Immigration Plan affect Express Entry?

[Alexios07]

This piece of article written by an immigration lawyer. Remember this is just a personal opinion.

The 2017 Immigration Levels Plan has been announced. These ‘levels’ are the numbers of permanent resident applications Canada plans to approve during 2017. The numbers are broken down based on the type of application (family reunification programs, economic immigration programs, and refugees/humanitarian cases.) The number of applications in each category will impact processing times; the more space in the category, the more staff that will be assigned to process those applications.

The number of applications in the Canadian Experience Class, Federal Skilled Worker, and Federal Skilled Trades programs (along with a portion of the provincial nominee programs) will also directly affect the ‘score’ for Express Entry. More spaces in those categories means a lower Express Entry score.

The overall numbers: Canada will welcome between 280,000 and 320,000 (target 300,000) new permanent residents in 2017.

How does this compare to 2016? Exactly the same. That’s right. The 2016 levels plan also had a target of 300,000 immigrants. What has changed is that in 2017, Canada hopes to welcome almost 12,000 additional economic immigrants, and an additional 4,000 family class applicants. To make up for these increases, we will welcome almost 16,000 less refugees and protected persons.

Canada welcoming less refugees is not unexpected – bringing in Syrian refugees was an election promise, and now that it is largely met, Canada’s intake of refugees will reduce to levels closer to that of previous years.

What is unexpected is that the overall number has not increased. Many of us in this area were expecting numbers to rise.

So how will this affect the Express Entry scores? 73,700 immigrants are expected to be processed through the programs that primarily use Express Entry. This contrasts to 58,400 for 2016. In addition, in 2016 Canada has continued to process pre-Express Entry applications (applications for these programs were submitted prior to January 1, 2015, when Express Entry was launched). These applications should all be processed by the end of 2016, which means most of those 73,700 individuals will come through Express Entry (less only the 2,000 who will come through the Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program.)

Now remember, 71,700 includes not only the principal applicant, but also their spouses and dependent children. If every principal applicant had three dependents, then less than 30,000 Invitations to Apply would be issued in 2016. However, it is likely that the numbers will be much higher than that, since in 2015, 31,063 ITAs were issued.

Where the scores will go also depends on how many applicants are in the Express Entry pool, and what their scores are. The most recent data we have is the Express Entry Year-End Report 2015, which said that as of January 3rd, 2016, there were 60,042 active candidates. 13,537 of those candidates had scores higher than 400. 21,851 had scores between 350 and 400, and a further 18,433 had scores between 300 and 350.

Making predictions about Express Entry scores is difficult because of a lack of publically available data. We don’t know how many people are in the pool right now, what their scores are, and how many dependents they have.

But let’s try. Say the number of people in the pool are the same as they were on January 3rd. Say 71,700 people will come through Express Entry (that’s 73,700 less the 2,000 destined for Atlantic Canada). Say average family size is 1.5 (I’m assuming a majority of applicants are single.) That would mean 47,800 ITAs. Based on the January 3rd numbers in the pool, that would mean everyone with a score of 370 or higher would get an ITA in 2017.

Wow.

But keep in mind that we’re also on tenterhooks waiting for the government to announce expected changes to the Express Entry comprehensive ranking system. The whole point system might have a drastic reconfiguration if the government makes changes to the way points are allocated to international students, those with NAFTA work permits, and inter-company transferees. If they don’t need the points for an ITA, less people might be applying for Labour Market Impact Assessments. Since currently having a LMIA gives an additional 600 points, the number of people in the pool with extremely high points might decrease.

Next month’s newsletter could result in drastically different predictions! Stay tuned.

Source:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-2017-canadian-immigration-levels-plan-affect-express-carey

 

[omarimam]

This piece of article written by an immigration lawyer. Remember this is just a personal opinion.

Source:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-2017-canadian-immigration-levels-plan-affect-express-carey

Great article, great assumptions too where he gets them from previous years, not out of thin air. I believe cut-off score will be lower next year than previous years, but hey let not rush things and wait till we see the express entry changes in points!

Also something that I would love this system to have, keeping track of the expiry date of PGWP's, and give priority accoringly.

Thanks, and good luck to all of us.

 

[thourb]

This piece of article written by an immigration lawyer. Remember this is just a personal opinion.

Source:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-2017-canadian-immigration-levels-plan-affect-express-carey

His figures of 47,800 ITAs are wrong. He is making the assumption that 1 ITA = 1.5 successful landed immigrants. He doesn't take into account the fact that many people receive an ITA and do not go on to complete an application, and on top of that there are many who are rejected. I discussed the figures in a post of mine a little while ago and worked out that in reality, based upon published data it's actually much closer to 1 ITA = 1.2 landed immigrants. On this basis, with no pre EE backlog, one can expect there to be around 61,416 ITAs throughout the year. Basing this on one every two weeks, that's 2362 ITAs per draw.

I don't think that I can be far off with those figures.

 

[Abby Alex]

I think that this article is one that is meant to give good hope.

But i would like to share some of my thoughts.

EE started in 2015 Jan, from then we have application coming in. the lowest the score ever came was 450. the same was the case in 2016
450 was the lowest.

So if i got, say, 449 in May 2015 and my IELTS is still valid, say i am less than 30 years old and my points won't drop. i am still in the pool waiting.
(i know that the points in 2017 Feb has come down to 447, this is just an example)

So you can imagine the number of people waiting in pool below 450 in Jan 2017 could be close to double than 2016.
I would imagine that a lot of applicants may still continue till their Language Test results and Education Credentials remain valid.

Also i believe number of applicants would be more in 2016 than 2015.

As for me i watched the EE for almost a year.
in 2016 when i decided to go for it took me close to 8 months to get my education credentials to be complete and apply.
I believe that there will be a lot of people like me on the fence in 2015 and applied in 2016

Lets wait for the report this EE year end report 2016 to see who all are in the pool and then we can make a clearer prediction.

I would estimate that to points may drop close to 400.

 

[sushsmart15]

Census Shows Immigration Accounted for Two-Thirds of Canada’s Population Growth Since 2011.
Canada’s population grew by five percent from 2011 to 2016, and the country had a population of 35,151,728 on May 10, 2016 — the day of the census. Canada remains the fastest-growing country in the G7 group of nations, a title it has claimed for the past 15 years.

The above points will also be taken into consideration while assessing the immigration policy.

 

[Pawshi]

You have forgotten that all (99%) 400+ till 450 were given OINP till Feb 2016. So there would not be any 400-450 in the queue. All the 400-450 are from February 2016 on wards....

Hope you would agree.

 

[Abby Alex]

That is also true...

I missed out on that..

but still, this is from my understanding, I could be wrong.
13,537 applications in EE pool between 400 - 450 on Jan 1st, 2016. did all of them get thru?

i hope what you said is true and that i am wrong.