July draw predictions

[scylla]

I'm on ICT work permit, LMIA exempt. It helps in my case.

In that case you can definitely get the 50 points with the letter and a year of work experience with that employer in Canada.

Basically the key part of the letter is the statement that they will continue to employ you for a year after you become a PR. That needs to be in there and is the important part.

Good luck.

 

[powerssdd]

My estimation is that CRS will drop to 480 by the middle of Sep.

There are 18,179 ppl in the pool whose CRS is above 480.

IRCC needs to invite 75,750 ppl from July 2022 to June 2023, so 75750 / 52 weeks (1 year) = 1,456 / per week, which is 2,913 per 2 weeks, aka, 2,913 per draw.

18179 / 2,913 = 6.24.

It takes 6.24 draws to reach CRS 480.

If the first draw is July 7th, the 6th draw is Sep 15th.

Of course more ppl will enter the pool, but not many with CRS higher than 480.

Besides, for the occupation-specific draw:
1. it could happen in July. That is very possible. It doesn't necessarily take 8 - 9 months to get it passed as it is not a highly controversial topic.
2. It will be for inland applicants, as per the mandate letter.

Those are my speculations.

 

[SatNight]

I don't think NOC specific draws will be for the inland applicants only. No way.

 

[Takita]

In that case you can definitely get the 50 points with the letter and a year of work experience with that employer in Canada.

Basically the key part of the letter is the statement that they will continue to employ you for a year after you become a PR. That needs to be in there and is the important part.

Good luck.

I can download experience letter myself with a click of a button including everything needed as it's automated in our company, but the letter won't include "will continue to employ you for a year after you become a PR", so will have to request letter manually.

I complete my 1yr experience in first week of July.

Does the letter need to be dated after completing 1yr experience or it doesn't matter?
Does the letter need to be issued by HR or letter from my manager (Director level + Hiring Manager) on company letter head would work?

I'm looking for draft/template to provide to my employer

 

[aommnd]

My estimation is that CRS will drop to 480 by the middle of Sep.

There are 18,179 ppl in the pool whose CRS is above 480.

IRCC needs to invite 75,750 ppl from July 2022 to June 2023, so 75750 / 52 weeks (1 year) = 1,456 / per week, which is 2,913 per 2 weeks, aka, 2,913 per draw.

18179 / 2,913 = 6.24.

It takes 6.24 draws to reach CRS 480.

If the first draw is July 7th, the 6th draw is Sep 15th.

Of course more ppl will enter the pool, but not many with CRS higher than 480.

Besides, for the occupation-specific draw:
1. it could happen in July. That is very possible. It doesn't necessarily take 8 - 9 months to get it passed as it is not a highly controversial topic.
2. It will be for inland applicants, as per the mandate letter.

Those are my speculations.

I barely have 475, my wishful hope is a CEC draw which could have a decent chance of sub 475 cutoff.
Before COVID happened, the combined draws were in the 450-470 range, mostly around 450-462, this was of course without the heavy pool backlog.

 

[aommnd]

Thoughts on this
https://www.cicnews.com/2022/05/new...imilar-to-pre-pandemic-0525822.html#gs.1toe54

 

[SatNight]

Thoughts on this
https://www.cicnews.com/2022/05/new...imilar-to-pre-pandemic-0525822.html#gs.1toe54

It seems to fit predictions from here, that a draw will be around 3000 people (if not more). I hope it also assumes regular draws two times per month.

 

[scylla]

Thoughts on this
https://www.cicnews.com/2022/05/new...imilar-to-pre-pandemic-0525822.html#gs.1toe54

That's an immigration consultant's web site. They key government information is in the memo that is linked in that article which is here:

https://www.cicnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/1A202219945.pdf

Basically the government memo recommends option #1. Option #1 recommends that draws be paused until June 2022. In June 2022, they would reassess where processing and oustanding applications stand and then make a decision on when exactly to restart the draws. Draws are planned to restart somewhere in the July to September timeframe (exactly when will be determined by the assessment in June).

The memo also points to "generic rounds" which to me indicates general draws (i.e. both FSW and CEC applicants together).

 

[Takita]

In that case you can definitely get the 50 points with the letter and a year of work experience with that employer in Canada.

Basically the key part of the letter is the statement that they will continue to employ you for a year after you become a PR. That needs to be in there and is the important part.

Good luck.

I can download experience letter myself with a click of a button including everything needed as it's automated in our company, but the letter won't include "will continue to employ you for a year after you become a PR", so will have to request letter manually.

I complete my 1yr experience in first week of July.

Does the letter need to be dated after completing 1yr experience or it doesn't matter?
Does the letter need to be issued by HR or letter from my manager (Director level + Hiring Manager) on company letter head would work?

I'm looking for draft/template to provide to my employer

@scylla

 

[scylla]

@scylla

Sorry - I don't know the answers.

 

[SatNight]

@scylla Isn't this memo a bit old (from March)? Didn't they already decide to start draws in July?

 

[scylla]

@scylla Isn't this memo a bit old (from March)? Didn't they already decide to start draws in July?

Yes, the memo is from March.

Based on my years on this forum, I never believe IRCC is going to start doing something until they actually do it. That's the best advice I can give to anyone. It's never guaranteed until it's happening and there have been many times where they've delayed something for one reason or another.

So definitely hope for July but understand it's not guaranteed.

 

[SatNight]

@scylla Yeah, fair enough. I was just checking if there is some new info from today in terms of when the draws will start.

 

[hello2020]

In that case you can definitely get the 50 points with the letter and a year of work experience with that employer in Canada.

Basically the key part of the letter is the statement that they will continue to employ you for a year after you become a PR. That needs to be in there and is the important part.

Good luck.

I am on a closed (LMIA) work permit and have been working for the same employer for more than a year. The system is showing me 50 points for arranged employment. My job offer is not stated that they will continue to employ me for a year after I become a PR (just a regular indefinite term). However, that key part I have in my Employment Reference Letter. Is this could work as well?

 

[Takita]

I am on a closed (LMIA) work permit and have been working for the same employer for more than a year. The system is showing me 50 points for arranged employment. My job offer is not stated that they will continue to employ me for a year after I become a PR (just a regular indefinite term). However, that key part I have in my Employment Reference Letter. Is this could work as well?

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