July draw predictions

[SatNight]

Yeah, I'm not optimistic about hearing anything before October at the earliest, yet I will continue refreshing the relevant webpages every two weeks like a fool regardless lol.

Considering there are 9500+ people in the pool with scores above 501, and assuming that draws of 1750 continue to happen biweekly... It would take 10-12 weeks with no new candidates to even get to 500. (Hopefully I got the math right there, but even if I'm off, you get the gist.)

As of today, there are around 7900 people above 501.

And do you mean 10-12 draws, not weeks?

 

[SatNight]

No even with a 2000 draws 500s will be cleared this year. The increase from 1500 to 2000 is actually massive as the net FHS draws will grow from ~900 to ~1400. We only have 9000 above 500 right now and only about 350 new 500s enters the pool every 2 weeks.

We have around 7900 of those above 501 at the moment. I agree with the rest.

 

[lilyt]

idk how we happened to be at the place where 470-480 isn't a good enough score
it would be enough for ANY of the previous draws
especially 74 one
I'm so angry at these fucking clowns who ruined a perfectly fine system because no one at the ministry has a brain apparently

 

[lilyt]

I don’t understand why is that.
What was the goal? The goal was to invite applicants in a scale that meets the annual plan and to process them within 6 months.

they want to save places for their precious targeted draws in 2023

 

[powerssdd]

they want to save places for their precious targeted draws in 2023

Or the new pathway that will be announced in Sep.
But I just cannot be optimistic about it.
I have been waiting for good news since the first day CEC was suspended in Sep last year, but it just never comes.
It is always that IRCC gave some hope, then bad news when the details were released.
Always like that.

 

[Ultraxion]

This time I happen to be correct.

Ppl talk about that the backlog for CEC and FSW was reduced significantly, so it seems that the 10 months suspension of EE worked and is worth it.

I don’t understand why is that.
What was the goal? The goal was to invite applicants in a scale that meets the annual plan and to process them within 6 months.

Now the plan of 2023 requires each draw to invite almost 3k not including PNP applicants, but now they can only do 1/3 of it because otherwise they cannot meet the 6 months service standard.

The goal wasn't achieved, so the 10 months suspension didn't work to a large extent.

Last month an opposition party member criticized IRCC at parliament saying there is nothing but chaos in this department. I think it is a quite fair evaluation.

two draws hardly defines a trend, but we have every reason to believe that IRCC is actually "gradually" increasing the draw size. Let's just wait and see

 

[klubsoda]

As of today, there are around 7900 people above 501.

And do you mean 10-12 draws, not weeks?

Thanks for the correction, I was using the figure here without taking into account the reduction due to today's draw.

I did mean 10-12 weeks, though. With the correct figure, it's a bit less... 7900 candidates/1750 per draw = 4.5 draws, multiplied by two because it's a biweekly draw and you're now at ~9 weeks. That assumes that no one else above 501 enters the pool though, which obviously won't be the case.

I'm not saying this is useful speculation per se, but I needed to do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to feel even a little bit better about my chances.

 

[Ultraxion]

Thanks for the correction, I was using the figure here without taking into account the reduction due to today's draw.

I did mean 10-12 weeks, though. With the correct figure, it's a bit less... 7900 candidates/1750 per draw = 4.5 draws, multiplied by two because it's a biweekly draw and you're now at ~9 weeks. That assumes that no one else above 501 enters the pool though, which obviously won't be the case.

I'm not saying this is useful speculation per se, but I needed to do a back-of-the-envelope calculation to feel even a little bit better about my chances.

more than 1000 ppl in the range 501-600 entered the pool between the first two draws

 

[SatNight]

more than 1000 ppl in the range 501-600 entered the pool between the first two draws

This is what's confusing me. It never happened before. Typical increase is 300-400 people.

Before previous draw, it was around 700 people increase, which is huge. Let alone this 1000+ increase.

I know there are people with 500+ points entering the pool regularly, but this does seem suspicious. I didn't want to buy into the fake profile conspiracy, but now I don't know what to think.

 

[Ultraxion]

This is what's confusing me. It never happened before. Typical increase is 300-400 people.

Before previous draw, it was around 700 people increase, which is huge. Let alone this 1000+ increase.

I know there are people with 500+ points entering the pool regularly, but this does seem suspicious. I didn't want to buy into the fake profile conspiracy, but now I don't know what to think.

even there is conspiracy, IRCC won't figuer out until ppl actually submit their profiles, and it will most likely be too late for 2022. Then c-19, new pathway etc. etc. hits everything becomes irrelevant again.

 

[SatNight]

Yeah, they don't care about fake profiles. They just reject them and move on. Makes their job easy.

 

[lilyt]

This is what's confusing me. It never happened before. Typical increase is 300-400 people.

Before previous draw, it was around 700 people increase, which is huge. Let alone this 1000+ increase.

I know there are people with 500+ points entering the pool regularly, but this does seem suspicious. I didn't want to buy into the fake profile conspiracy, but now I don't know what to think.

someone here said that many people just got 1 year update
also, they started issuing pnp invites like crazy
also there is a war going on, I imaging both ukranians and russians are applying for fsw

 

[SatNight]

Now I feel lucky that the score dropped at all.

 

[Ultraxion]

someone here said that many people just got 1 year update
also, they started missing pnp invites like crazy
also there is a war going on, I imaging both ukranians and russians are applying for fsw

I can only hope the 1000ppl/biweekly is temporary. if it is true that ppl at this time are getting their 1 yr exp or what not, the crazy trend will die down for sure.

 

[lilyt]

also idk what these billions of programs are for
literally all they need to do in this life is to conduct like 6 CEC only draws
to invite, like, you know, people who are already here and working and contributing to Canadian economy
I guess it's too hard