Let's divide this up into two separate processes, asylum and PR. These are handled by two separate agencies, the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB) and Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) respectively. The IRB is the agency that determines whether or not you'll actually be determined to be a protected person in Canada and thus, eligible to move on to the next step. Your wait time with the IRB is determined based on several factors, most notably:
- Your region. The IRB has three regions, the Western region (which is headquartered in Vancouver and has satellite offices in Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg), the Central region (which is headquartered in Toronto) and the Eastern region (which is headquartered in Montréal). Each region has its own panels and case loads.
- The complexity of your case. Less complex cases can receive a decision pretty quickly, sometimes even without a hearing. More complex decisions take more time.
- Whether you need an appeal or not and to what extent. Appeals take more time. Appeals to the Federal Court take considerably more time, as your application needs to be reconsidered by the IRB to be successful, even if you win at the Federal Court.
- External circumstances. COVID-19 delayed a lot of cases.
In my case, I was in the Western region, required a hearing at my RPD case, lost my RPD case, appealed to the RAD and won. My case was delayed by COVID-19 and I submitted nearly 8,000 pages of evidence to substantiate my claim. This part of the process is very much a "Your Mileage May Vary" scenario. But, assuming you get a positive decision from the IRB (either the RPD or the RAD), you can move on to the next stage, which is the IRCC process to get PR.
The current wait time is, on average, 20 months. This can be more or less depending on the case load and the complexity of your application (i.e. how much work they have to do in order to process your application). Do yourself a favor,
submit a complete application.