FSW WORLDWIDE

[Hemilshah80]

Did you also receive a Schedule A request? I am curious as to why do they need it now since everything was passed on my application since Sep 2020 (as per GMS).

Don't worry mate. Quite a few people who got their Ppr in the recent past received requests to submit different documents. Some were asked for PCC while others were asked for remeds and some were asked for Schedule A. The good thing is There's some movement on your file and its just a matter of a few more days before you get to celebrate. All the best.

 

[VVV62]

The data released gives COPRs as in persons and not cases. 14282 people in cec received COPR(including dependents) in october and the backlog is 48225 total people(including dependent) at the end of october. So the Backlog in the end of Nov for CEC should be 33943 if they processed the same number in Nov as they did in Oct.

Yeah, my mistake. I'll recalculate...

 

[Alysson]

Yeah, my mistake. I may be recalculate...

Np, your estimate was good to put things in perspective. If COPRs really increased 10x for FSW that's amazing. It will clear 1/3 of backlog by end of Jan. when they finish CEC, and then they can clear 1/3 per month on Feb. and March.

 

[apollonoob]

So, here are my calculations and thought:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs CEC ImmiTracker	COPRs FSW	COPRs FSW ImmiTracker	COPRs PNP	COPRs PNP ImmiTracker	Backlog CEC on Oct, 27	Backlog FSW on Oct, 27	Backlog PNP on Oct, 27
Sep, 2021	14364	66	468	7	1834	19	?	?	?
Oct, 2021	14282	57	586	3	1596	14	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	33	?	43	?	20	?	?	?

There're two main interesting points, as I think:
1) The fact is that we don't know the actual number of persons per application, so it's hard to calculate how the backlog reduces. Someone have 0 dependend relatives, someone has more than 5. For further calculations, let us think that an average application has 2 persons in total. As a result, there will be just 1 COPRs for both of them. So, according to this estimation, the data for November should approximately be:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	14282	586	1596	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	?	?	19661	49975	68317

According to my calculations, it's highly likely, that almost half of applications stuck in the CEC backlog was finalized in November. If the tempo remains the same, it will probably take amout 1 month to clear the CEC backlog if the COPR issuing tempo doesn't fall.

2) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a prediction:

Month	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	586	1596	51147	71509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	39427	68317
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	27707	65125
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	15987	61933
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	4267	58741

Well, of course we should take into account that is an extremely rough prediction. I think that there's a chance that the FSW backlog may be cleared around March, 2022, if the current tendency remains.
Nevertheless, as we all know, IRCC can re-assign its officers from one program to another, so only God knows what to expect.

So, I see the picture this way:
- The CEC backlog may be cleared in Jan, 2022.
- All officers responsible for CEC may be re-assigned for finalizing PNP and FSW applications.
- Thus, the FSW and PNP backlogs will have been cleared by March, 2022.
- So, new FSW ITAs may be expected in March-April.

Although the conclusions might sound too optimistic, but the way how you make the prediction seems reasonable. BTW,it seems that IRCC claims that they will start CEC FSW invitations when half backlog are cleared. So let’s see when.

 

[VVV62]

Yeah, my mistake. I may be recalculate...

The first table remains the same:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs CEC ImmiTracker	COPRs FSW	COPRs FSW ImmiTracker	COPRs PNP	COPRs PNP ImmiTracker	Backlog CEC on Oct, 27	Backlog FSW on Oct, 27	Backlog PNP on Oct, 27
Sep, 2021	14364	66	468	7	1834	19	?	?	?
Oct, 2021	14282	57	586	3	1596	14	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	33	?	43	?	20	?	?	?

1) A prediction for November is:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	14282	586	1596	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	?	?	33943	50561	69913

2) A prediction for CEC, if the 14k trend remains in play:

Month	COPRs CEC	Backlog CEC
Oct, 2021	14282	48225
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	14282	33943
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	19661
Jan, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5378
Feb, 2021 (prediction)	14282	CEC backlog cleared

3) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a rough prediction:

Month	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	586	1596	51147	71509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	45287	69913
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	39427	68317
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	33567	66721
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	27707	65125
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	21847	63529
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	15987	61933
May, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	10127	60337
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	4167	58741
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	1596	FSW backlog cleared	57145

4) My assumption is that in November half of IRCC officers responsible for CEC were re-assigned to FSW, which was estimated as the long-awaited PPR rain. Let me make calculate this:

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW
Oct, 2021	14282	586	48225	51147
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	7141	7727	41084	43420
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	7141	7727	33943	35693
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	26802	27966
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	19661	20239
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	12520	12512
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	5379	4785
May, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	CEC backlog cleared	FSW backlog cleared

5) Of course, IRCC could follow this strategy:

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW
Oct, 2021	14282	586	48225	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	586	33943	50561
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	586	19661	49975
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	586	5378	49389
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	CEC backlog cleared	34521
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	-	19653
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	-	4785
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

6) And here's the best prediction based on the fact that the number of COPRs for FSW increased tenfold. It could happen because a bunch of IRCC officers had been shifted from other programs (not CEC) to FSW.

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW (FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)	Number of COPRs for FSW (PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW (FSW-priority scenario)	Backlog FSW (PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 2021	14282	586	586	48225	51147	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	5860	5860	33943	45287	45287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	19661	39427	39427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	5379	33567	39427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	CEC backlog cleared	13425	33567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	FSW backlog cleared	27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	-	21847
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.

 

[Jaycejay]

The first table remains the same:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs CEC ImmiTracker	COPRs FSW	COPRs FSW ImmiTracker	COPRs PNP	COPRs PNP ImmiTracker	Backlog CEC on Oct, 27	Backlog FSW on Oct, 27	Backlog PNP on Oct, 27
Sep, 2021	14364	66	468	7	1834	19	?	?	?
Oct, 2021	14282	57	586	3	1596	14	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	33	?	43	?	20	?	?	?

1) A prediction for November is:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	14282	586	1596	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	?	?	33943	50561	69913

2) A prediction for CEC, if the 14k trend remains in play:

Month	COPRs CEC	Backlog CEC
Oct, 2021	14282	48225
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	14282	33943
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	19661
Jan, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5378
Feb, 2021 (prediction)	14282	CEC backlog cleared

3) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a rough prediction:

Month	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	586	1596	51147	71509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	45287	69913
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	39427	68317
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	33567	66721
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	27707	65125
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	21847	63529
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	15987	61933
May, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	10127	60337
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	4167	58741
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	1596	FSW backlog cleared	57145

4) My assumption is that in November half of IRCC officers responsible for CEC were re-assigned to FSW, which was estimated as the long-awaited PPR rain. Let me make calculate this:

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW
Oct, 2021	14282	586	48225	51147
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	7141	7727	41084	43420
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	7141	7727	33943	35693
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	26802	27966
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	19661	20239
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	12520	12512
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	5379	4785
May, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	CEC backlog cleared	FSW backlog cleared

5) Of course, IRCC could follow this strategy:

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW
Oct, 2021	14282	586	48225	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	586	33943	50561
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	586	19661	49975
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	586	5378	49389
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	CEC backlog cleared	34521
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	-	19653
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	-	4785
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

6) And here's the best prediction based on the fact that the number of COPRs for FSW increased tenfold. It could happen because a bunch of IRCC officers had been shifted from other programs (not CEC) to FSW.

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW (FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)	Number of COPRs for FSW (PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW (FSW-priority scenario)	Backlog FSW (PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 2021	14282	586	586	48225	51147	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	5860	5860	33943	45287	45287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	19661	39427	39427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	5379	33567	39427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	CEC backlog cleared	13425	33567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	FSW backlog cleared	27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	-	21847
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.

appreciate you for the work man!

 

[Alysson]

The first table remains the same:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs CEC ImmiTracker	COPRs FSW	COPRs FSW ImmiTracker	COPRs PNP	COPRs PNP ImmiTracker	Backlog CEC on Oct, 27	Backlog FSW on Oct, 27	Backlog PNP on Oct, 27
Sep, 2021	14364	66	468	7	1834	19	?	?	?
Oct, 2021	14282	57	586	3	1596	14	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	33	?	43	?	20	?	?	?

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW (FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)	Number of COPRs for FSW (PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW (FSW-priority scenario)	Backlog FSW (PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 2021	14282	586	586	48225	51147	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	5860	5860	33943	45287	45287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	19661	39427	39427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	5379	33567	39427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	CEC backlog cleared	13425	33567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	FSW backlog cleared	27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	-	21847
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.

Thanks for the estimate, it looks great. My guess is the last estimate. The resources for FSW came from Ottawa, which were probably all over the place processing everything this year. In the end they were stuck with Afghanistan which ended up not having that much demand(Since canada expects refugees to get inside canada on their own or wait for bureaucracy from third party refugee groups.) So I don't think resources got split up. They won't divert so much from CEC to FSW this year, because they need 86k Nov and Dec for their quota, and they can't get that from outland. Maybe they will split resources from CEC starting January or continue to clear it all, and finally finish most cases by end of March. That is if things go well.

 

[VVV62]

Although the conclusions might sound too optimistic, but the way how you make the prediction seems reasonable. BTW,it seems that IRCC claims that they will start CEC FSW invitations when half backlog are cleared. So let’s see when.

As I see, among all EE programs, the PNP backlog is the main stone tied to the neck of IRCC. The CEC and FSW programs are cleared much more faster, especially CEC. I even think that when the overwhelming majority of CEC and FSW applications were finalized (around March-May, 2022), the PNP backlog would have about 60k of applicants.
Nevertheless, I think that IRCC will start CEC FSW invitations when half of ALL backlog (1.8 mil people/2 = 900k ppl) are cleared. In this case, IRCC could send 170k COPRs to ALL FSW+CEC+PNP applicants, and even then invitations won't be resumed.

 

[seadrag0n]

The first table remains the same:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs CEC ImmiTracker	COPRs FSW	COPRs FSW ImmiTracker	COPRs PNP	COPRs PNP ImmiTracker	Backlog CEC on Oct, 27	Backlog FSW on Oct, 27	Backlog PNP on Oct, 27
Sep, 2021	14364	66	468	7	1834	19	?	?	?
Oct, 2021	14282	57	586	3	1596	14	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	33	?	43	?	20	?	?	?

1) A prediction for November is:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	14282	586	1596	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	?	?	33943	50561	69913

2) A prediction for CEC, if the 14k trend remains in play:

Month	COPRs CEC	Backlog CEC
Oct, 2021	14282	48225
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	14282	33943
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	19661
Jan, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5378
Feb, 2021 (prediction)	14282	CEC backlog cleared

3) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a rough prediction:

Month	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	586	1596	51147	71509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	45287	69913
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	39427	68317
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	33567	66721
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	27707	65125
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	21847	63529
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	15987	61933
May, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	10127	60337
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	4167	58741
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	1596	FSW backlog cleared	57145

4) My assumption is that in November half of IRCC officers responsible for CEC were re-assigned to FSW, which was estimated as the long-awaited PPR rain. Let me make calculate this:

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW
Oct, 2021	14282	586	48225	51147
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	7141	7727	41084	43420
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	7141	7727	33943	35693
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	26802	27966
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	19661	20239
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	12520	12512
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	5379	4785
May, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	CEC backlog cleared	FSW backlog cleared

5) Of course, IRCC could follow this strategy:

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW
Oct, 2021	14282	586	48225	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	586	33943	50561
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	586	19661	49975
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	586	5378	49389
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	CEC backlog cleared	34521
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	-	19653
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	-	4785
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

6) And here's the best prediction based on the fact that the number of COPRs for FSW increased tenfold. It could happen because a bunch of IRCC officers had been shifted from other programs (not CEC) to FSW.

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW (FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)	Number of COPRs for FSW (PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW (FSW-priority scenario)	Backlog FSW (PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 2021	14282	586	586	48225	51147	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	5860	5860	33943	45287	45287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	19661	39427	39427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	5379	33567	39427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	CEC backlog cleared	13425	33567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	FSW backlog cleared	27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	-	21847
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.

One thing to note is that more than half of the PNP applications are paper-based which has a processing time of 2 years before covid and in one of the earlier memos, wasn't it mentioned that there were about 15k PNP express entry applications(not persons) pending?

 

[Jaycejay]

As I see, among all EE programs, the PNP backlog is the main stone tied to the neck of IRCC. The CEC and FSW programs are cleared much more faster, especially CEC. I even think that when the overwhelming majority of CEC and FSW applications were finalized (around March-May, 2022), the PNP backlog would have about 60k of applicants.
Nevertheless, I think that IRCC will start CEC FSW invitations when half of ALL backlog (1.8 mil people/2 = 900k ppl) are cleared. In this case, IRCC could send 170k COPRs to ALL FSW+CEC+PNP applicants, and even then invitations won't be resumed.

In the internal memo CIC released recently, it was revealed that IRCC would start conducting Express entry draws again when more than half of the Express entry backlogs has been cleared, not when half of ALL backlog is cleared. Waiting for half of all backlogs to be cleared wouldn't make any sense because there are some immigration categories that have always been known to take long processing times even pre-Pandemic. Express entry is special in the sense that was designed to be fast and has been Canada's main tool in acheiving it's immigration targets annually, so those draws have to resume somewhat early next year regardless of non-EE backlogs.

NOTE: PNP isn't traditionally part of the express entry stream when we talk about targets and backlogs. Ideally, the Express entry streams are FSW, CEC and FST. PNP seems to operate by a different set of rules, pretty much why the invitations never stopped.

Immigration category	Category	2021 Range	2021 Target	2022 Range	2022 Target	2023 Range	2023 Target
Express Entry	FSW, FST, CEC	81,000-110,250	108,500	96,250-112,900	110,500	100,000-114,500	113,750
Economic pilots: Caregivers; Agri-Food; Rural and Northern	4,900-9,250	8,500	4,500-10,500	10,000	4,500-11,000	10,250
Atlantic Pilot	3,300-6,250	6,000	3,000-6,750	6,250	3,500-6,750	6,500
Business	400-1,250	1,000	250-1,250	1,000	500-1,250	1,000
PNPs	64,000-81,500	80,800	63,600-82,500	81,500	65,000-84,000	83,000
Quebec (Skilled Worker & Business)	21,300-25,300	See the Quebec immigration plan	See the Quebec immigration plan	TBD	TBD	TBD
Total Economic	180,500-237,000	232,500	199,000-247,000	241,500	207,000-253,500	249,500

 

[Midnight Blessing]

Anyone in the group from SGVO??

SGVO seems like the most slowest VO in the history of EE.

Guys if you have passed medical recently, by when do you think SGVO can issue PPR?

 

[Newfoundland991]

The first table remains the same:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs CEC ImmiTracker	COPRs FSW	COPRs FSW ImmiTracker	COPRs PNP	COPRs PNP ImmiTracker	Backlog CEC on Oct, 27	Backlog FSW on Oct, 27	Backlog PNP on Oct, 27
Sep, 2021	14364	66	468	7	1834	19	?	?	?
Oct, 2021	14282	57	586	3	1596	14	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	33	?	43	?	20	?	?	?

1) A prediction for November is:

Month	COPRs CEC	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	14282	586	1596	48225	51147	71509
Nov, 2021	?	?	?	33943	50561	69913

2) A prediction for CEC, if the 14k trend remains in play:

Month	COPRs CEC	Backlog CEC
Oct, 2021	14282	48225
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	14282	33943
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	19661
Jan, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5378
Feb, 2021 (prediction)	14282	CEC backlog cleared

3) According to the data from ImmiTracker the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in about 10 times. So, let's make a rough prediction:

Month	COPRs FSW	COPRs PNP	Backlog FSW	Backlog PNP
Oct, 2021	586	1596	51147	71509
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	45287	69913
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	5860	1596	39427	68317
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	33567	66721
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	27707	65125
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	21847	63529
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	15987	61933
May, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	10127	60337
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	5860	1596	4167	58741
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	1596	FSW backlog cleared	57145

4) My assumption is that in November half of IRCC officers responsible for CEC were re-assigned to FSW, which was estimated as the long-awaited PPR rain. Let me make calculate this:

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW
Oct, 2021	14282	586	48225	51147
Nov, 2021 (prediction)	7141	7727	41084	43420
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	7141	7727	33943	35693
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	26802	27966
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	19661	20239
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	12520	12512
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	5379	4785
May, 2022 (prediction)	7141	7727	CEC backlog cleared	FSW backlog cleared

5) Of course, IRCC could follow this strategy:

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW
Oct, 2021	14282	586	48225	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	586	33943	50561
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	586	19661	49975
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	586	5378	49389
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	CEC backlog cleared	34521
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	-	19653
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	14868	-	4785
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

6) And here's the best prediction based on the fact that the number of COPRs for FSW increased tenfold. It could happen because a bunch of IRCC officers had been shifted from other programs (not CEC) to FSW.

Month	Number of COPRs for CEC	Number of COPRs for FSW (FSW priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to FSW)	Number of COPRs for FSW (PNP priority scenario - after the clearence of the CEC backlog, 100% of its officers re-assigned to PNP)	Backlog CEC	Backlog FSW (FSW-priority scenario)	Backlog FSW (PNP-priority scenario)
Oct, 2021	14282	586	586	48225	51147	51147
Nov, 2021	14282	5860	5860	33943	45287	45287
Dec, 2021 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	19661	39427	39427
Jan, 2022 (prediction)	14282	5860	5860	5379	33567	39427
Feb, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	CEC backlog cleared	13425	33567
Mar, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	FSW backlog cleared	27707
Apr, 2022 (prediction)	-	20142	5860	-	-	21847
May, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	15987
Jun, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	10127
Jul, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	4267
Aug, 2022 (prediction)	-	-	-	-	-	FSW backlog cleared

So, to sum up my thoughts:
1) We don't know what strategy IRCC has.
2) We don't know the real reason why the number of issued COPRs for FSW increased in November. We don't know whether IRCC re-assigned some officers from one program to another or not.
3) We don't know the number of refused and withdrawn applications.
4) Highly likely the CEC backlog will have been cleared by March, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for CEC will me May, 2020.
5) The worst scenario for the FSW will be July-August, 2020
6) If nothing changes, the best scenario for FSW applicants will be March, 2020. But I dont believe in such a extraordinary luck.
7) Nevertheless, we all should believe in the random nature of golden mails. Every day I see various golden mail receivers with various AORs ranged from 2019 to 2021. We should remember that we all will win after all. It could be tomorrow, next month, in January, March, May, or even today. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.
8) We don't know real statistics concerning those who receive PPRs because a huge amount of those luchy ones immideately lose their interest to this forum.
9) The table #4 above is the hypothesis I tend to follow.
10) Patience, brothers and sisters. I heard a cool phrase once: "One day you may ask the Lord why he made you experience so many trials and hardships in your life. Everythig is simple, son. Because you are his mightiest warrior."

Patience is the most humane trial we, people, can face. The receiving of a Golden Mail is inevitable.

Thank you for putting this together . It is indeed hard to predict, and we should expect it at any point, yet, I’m getting ready for worst case scenario of receiving PPR in April/May.
Will be interesting to see the real data from November.

 

[VVV62]

In the internal memo CIC released recently, it was revealed that IRCC would start conducting Express entry draws again when more than half of the Express entry backlogs has been cleared, not when half of ALL backlog is cleared. Waiting for half of all backlogs to be cleared wouldn't make any sense because there are some immigration categories that have always been known to take long processing times even pre-Pandemic. Express entry is special in the sense that was designed to be fast and has been Canada's main tool in acheiving it's immigration targets annually, so those draws have to resume somewhat early next year regardless of non-EE backlogs.

NOTE: PNP isn't traditionally part of the express entry stream when we talk about targets and backlogs. Ideally, the Express entry streams are FSW, CEC and FST. PNP seems to operate by a different set of rules, pretty much why the invitations never stopped.

Immigration category	Category	2021 Range	2021 Target	2022 Range	2022 Target	2023 Range	2023 Target
Express Entry	FSW, FST, CEC	81,000-110,250	108,500	96,250-112,900	110,500	100,000-114,500	113,750
Economic pilots: Caregivers; Agri-Food; Rural and Northern	4,900-9,250	8,500	4,500-10,500	10,000	4,500-11,000	10,250
Atlantic Pilot	3,300-6,250	6,000	3,000-6,750	6,250	3,500-6,750	6,500
Business	400-1,250	1,000	250-1,250	1,000	500-1,250	1,000
PNPs	64,000-81,500	80,800	63,600-82,500	81,500	65,000-84,000	83,000
Quebec (Skilled Worker & Business)	21,300-25,300	See the Quebec immigration plan	See the Quebec immigration plan	TBD	TBD	TBD
Total Economic	180,500-237,000	232,500	199,000-247,000	241,500	207,000-253,500	249,500

Hm, I've got a strange thought:
As we see, IRCC depicted its 2022 target for EE (FSW, FST, CEC) as 110,500 people.
In the meantime, in October 2021, the EE backlog for these 3 programs was: 48,225 (CEC) + 51,147 (FSW) + 941 (FST) = 100,313 applicants who stuck in limbo.
Let us think, that by the end of 2021, IRCC will have sent N golden mails.
Thus, the number of (100,313 - N) backlogged applicants will remain in limbo on Jan, 1, and their PPRs will go to the 2022 statistics.
So, the number of possible ITAs which will take place in 2022 will be:
110,500 - (100,313 - N) = 10,187 + N,
where N is the number of COPRs sent between Oct, 27 and Dec, 31.

I see it like communicating vessels - more people get COPRs in 2021, more free space for ITAs in 2022.

And here we meet the point: what is the aim of IRCC?
I mean that if they're simple bureaucrats, they have already reached 90% of their 2022 target for EE. If IRCC gets that its 2021 target is unobtainable, they could decelerate the issuing of COPRs in 2021 and easily smear the remaining EE backlog on all 12 months of 2022 in order to keep working in pace but without burning buttocks. The number of 2022 ITAs will depend only on their agreement to fulfil social obligations. And Sean Frases is the only guy who can affect them. I mean that he ought to be a guy with a whip - I assume that Sean Fraser acknowledges that in 5 years we all will be legit citizens to vote. So, if I were him, I'd wanted us to be grateful citizens. His further actions could show how he plans to cast his future in Canadian politics.

 

[vada pav]

Mostly people get ppr within 2 weeks but it may vary depending on case to case basis. My remeds were passed on 23 November but I still haven't received the golden mail , while a few others got it.

My meds were passed on 23rd Nov too but no developments

 

[seadrag0n]

Hm, I've got a strange thought:
As we see, IRCC depicted its 2022 target for EE (FSW, FST, CEC) as 110,500 people.
In the meantime, in October 2021, the EE backlog for these 3 programs was: 48,225 (CEC) + 51,147 (FSW) + 941 (FST) = 100,313 applicants who stuck in limbo.
Let us think, that by the end of 2021, IRCC will have sent N golden mails.
Thus, the number of (100,313 - N) backlogged applicants will remain in limbo on Jan, 1, and their PPRs will go to the 2022 statistics.
So, the number of possible ITAs which will take place in 2022 will be:
110,500 - (100,313 - N) = 10,187 + N,
where N is the number of COPRs sent between Oct, 27 and Dec, 31.

I see it like communicating vessels - more people get COPRs in 2021, more free space for ITAs in 2022.

And here we meet the point: what is the aim of IRCC?
I mean that if they're simple bureaucrats, they have already reached 90% of their 2022 target for EE. If IRCC gets that its 2021 target is unobtainable, they could decelerate the issuing of COPRs in 2021 and easily smear the remaining EE backlog on all 12 months of 2022 in order to keep working in pace but without burning buttocks. The number of 2022 ITAs will depend only on their agreement to fulfil social obligations. And Sean Frases is the only guy who can affect them. I mean that he ought to be a guy with a whip - I assume that Sean Fraser acknowledges that in 5 years we all will be legit citizens to vote. So, if I were him, I'd wanted us to be grateful citizens. His further actions could show how he plans to cast his future in Canadian politics.

So about 15-20k ITA's for 2022? PNP invites are enough for that. Quite a situation @Marco Mendicino has created.