FEB 10 2016 DRAW -- CRS 459 , ITA 1505

[Asivad Anac]

Unless you have some additional information I don't, I wouldn't be that optimistic. Looking at the previous trends, I believe it will be something like:

459 -> 453-454 -> 451-452 -> 1 week pause

I really see no way it can breach 450 in just 2 draws. 3 draws - maybe. 4 draws - most definitely. But 2 - no way.

No additional information that isn't available in public domain. The rationale was simple - whenever there have been 2 back-to-back draws, the score in the 2nd draw has fallen drastically because the pool did not have enough time to fill up with high scoring applicants. If February has 3 back-to-back draws AND given that the 1st draw itself was a 'lowly' 459, the 3rd draw is likely to have a sub-450 cutoff.

Case in point - March 2015.

There was nearly 1 month delay between the last Feb draw and the first March draw. That draw happened on the 3rd Friday of March with a cutoff of 481 followed immediately by a draw on the 4th Friday with a cutoff of 453. Something similar happened in April as well. And at various other points of time through 2015. But all of those were just 2 back-to-back draws.

In Jan '16, we had a delay between the 1st draw and 2 back-to-back draws. That last draw's cutoff fell to 451. If there are 3 back-to-back draws in Feb, the cutoff is likely to breach the 450 mark.

 

[sumit.singh.hallan]

CIC is down. Haven't received ITA email so far

 

[Sukizaki]

Me too, I haven't received the email either, still waiting

 

[nshakelly]

No additional information that isn't available in public domain. The rationale was simple - whenever there have been 2 back-to-back draws, the score in the 2nd draw has fallen drastically because the pool did not have enough time to fill up with high scoring applicants. If February has 3 back-to-back draws AND given that the 1st draw itself was a 'lowly' 459, the 3rd draw is likely to have a sub-450 cutoff.

Case in point - March 2015.

There was nearly 1 month delay between the last Feb draw and the first March draw. That draw happened on the 3rd Friday of March with a cutoff of 481 followed immediately by a draw on the 4th Friday with a cutoff of 453. Something similar happened in April as well. And at various other points of time through 2015. But all of those were just 2 back-to-back draws.

In Jan '16, we had a delay between the 1st draw and 2 back-to-back draws. That last draw's cutoff fell to 451. If there are 3 back-to-back draws in Feb, the cutoff is likely to breach the 450 mark.

Asivad, my friend would you please look into the query which I have posted?

 

[haznac]

After 2 years of beating the bushes, finally an ITA. Such a sweet feeling. Thank you everyone who post stuff and make this forum a great reference guide. It would simply be very difficult without you.

 

[TheMaze]

Even if the score falls, I can't see it free-falling - the problem is that there's a bunch of people sitting in the 440's - so even if it falls a few points, you have a 12-month backlog of people sitting in that range that have waited for an ITA (where at most someone in the 450's had to wait a few months). Given that CIC seems to target 1500 people, my guess is you'll see it fall 1-2 points at a time if/when it goes below 450 - just due to the backlog of people there. I would also expect that the lower the score, the more people are that tier (simply because it takes fewer qualifications to get a lower score). I could see it falling to 440 over the next 12 months, but can't see it going below that.

FWIW, my CRS score is 430 and I took the PT from OINP - unless CIC changes things, I can't see the score getting to 430 in 2016. 445, that I could see, but I'd bet $20 we won't even see 440 in 2016 (barring CIC making a substantial change, going to 3 draws regularly, and even then I question it).

 

[Sukizaki]

haznac, did you received the email?? Why I haven't received it?

 

[Aragorn165]

Congratulations to everyone who got the ITA!

 

[newcecapplicant]

I dont know if my last post got in here. but after 497 points I dont have an email or an ITA.. strange..

 

[Aragorn165]

I dont know if my last post got in here. but after 497 points I dont have an email or an ITA.. strange..

It can take up to 24 hours before you have an ITA, don't worry.

 

[haznac]

haznac, did you received the email?? Why I haven't received it?

Yes, I received it 46 minutes ago. I remember reading on this forum that it happens, some get it earlier some get it a bit later.

 

[Sukizaki]

CIC website down......................

 

[newcecapplicant]

Alright, and what about Police CErtificates. Do we need to send them in asap with the application once we get the ITA?

 

[haznac]

Alright, and what about Police CErtificates. Do we need to send them in asap with the application once we get the ITA?

Of course, you need to include PCC in your application. It shouldn't be more than 3 months old at the time of your application.

 

[newcecapplicant]

Can I submit the application for PCC? and upload the document upon receipt of the letter? how about that