Express Entry mid year report by CIC July 31 2015- Very Informative!

[DXB]

The number increases? Do you happen to know the reason why?

Applying simple logic – during the election year, Governments try to implement policies to lure the voters and capture the vote banks. As far as I know, it will take minimum 4 years for anyone who gets a PR now to become a Canadian citizen and use his/her franchise.

Therefore, there seems to be no co-relation between the numbers of ITAs issued this year, unless it directly impacts the current voters in a positive manner.

Giving PRs to the family members of the Canadian Citizens might be helpful

 

[cartwright]

Can anyone suggest by when can a score of 406 be reached? Are there any chances in 2015 itself?

It's no crystal ball prediction here, but if you can improve your scores via improving your IELTS scores and other factors that may help.

 

[ajanoni]

The number of invitations will remain at roughly 3000 per month. It will give us an amount of 36000 ITA per year and about 100k visas per year, if you count on dependents.

 

[munjal]

No one can make predictions about CRS cutoff...

but we can present our analysis of past data..

Last four draws have fetched 1500+ ITAs in each draw.. so we can expect the similar numbers in this 14th draw also.. (1500+ ITAs)

As per Mid-year EE report, there were 2180+ applicants having 450+ CRS as on July 6th, 2015.

>1000 51
950 - 999 38
900 - 949 40
850 - 899 65
800 - 849 62
750 - 799 64
700 - 749 27
650 - 699 7
600 - 649 1
550 - 599 2
500 - 549 38
450 - 499 1,786 at this point 2181 on 6 Jul 12th n 13th draw (3097) which means 961 entered in pool within 14 days with CRS 450+
400 - 449 8,770
350 - 399 14,597
300 - 349 12,517
250 - 299 2,247
200 - 249 585
150 - 199 225
100 -149 75
<100 21
Total 41,218
Source: http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015.asp

Out of 41218, 5% profiles have CRS 450 & above (approx 2000 candidates) and 20 % of profiles have CRS between 400 -449 (approx 8800)
so 25 % profiles of entire EE Pool are above 400 CRS (1786+8800 = 9500)... and those are the most expected profiles to get ITAs apart from those PNP profiles nominated under OOPNP and other PNPs such SINP, MPNP etc.

Every Draw have almost 50% of ITAs given to CEC profiles, this may be mainly due to LMIA (with additional 600 points).

As per report, every week 1500 new profiles are added in the EE pool and if 40% of these are considered not eligible (as per the statistics of last mid-year report published by CIC), then also 900 new EE profiles will be added every week..
at an average of 130 per day.

So we can assume that 130 x 4 = 500-520 new eligible profiles added in the EE pool during 6th to 10th July.

25% of these 500 new profiles, it will be 125 new profiles added with CRS 400 & above.

Just after 4 days of publishing this report, 12th draw happened on July 10th with 1581 ITAs and 463 cutoff...

so, 2190 - 1581 = 600 applicants were remained in the pool having CRS between 450 to 463.. plus newly added 500 profiles to entire EE pool.

That means there were average 45-50 applicants sitting at every point increase if we count from 450 CRS to 463 CRS (difference of 13 points CRS within 600 applicants)

13th draw: July 17th with 1516 ITAs and 451 cutoff..
this was 12 CRS points lower than previous cutoff and we can consider here that those 600 applicants above CRS 450 from last draw got ITAs in this draw (just to exclude those applicants with CRS 450)

Out of these 1500+ ITAs, if we consider 200 were given towards PNP with additional 600 points, and at least 40% (600 ITAs) given to CEC profiles,
then also there were 100 ITAs given to new profiles who were previously not into the pool but now they became eligible to get the ITA.

This accounts for those new 130+ eligible profiles added into EE pool per day (1500 per week) and so during 11 days from 6th july to 17th july total 11 x 130 = 1500 eligible profiles may have added.. and of this 5 % (approx 75-100) will be having CRS of 450+ and so they got ITA in this 13th draw.



If you see.. OOPNP have started from 2-July-2015 and they have sent invitations to as many applicants who are 400+ CRS.. OOPNP have 2700 nominations to give away.. even if they give 20% of these in Aug draw.. then it will be 500+ ITAs alone from OOPNP with additional 600 points..

so, If those invitations are going to convert into ITAs in this draw with additional 600 points, this month we can expect a surge in CRS cutoff...

These are just ITAs for OOPNP, if we add up ITAs for SINP, Nova Scotia, MPNP and other PNPs, then we can add up more 100 ITAs into this..

so total 700+ ITAs we can expect only from PNPs in next draw happening in August-2013 (with all having their CRS well above 700 or 800)



One more thing to consider is that every week there is addition of 1500 new profiles in the EE pool and if 40% of these are considered not eligible (as per the statistics of last mid-year report published by CIC), then also 900 new EE profiles will be added every week..

so, if draw happens in first week of Aug, then already 2700-3000 new eligible profiles are added to EE pool since July 17th and even if we consider only 5% of them to be above 450 score then it will be 150 + profiles with CRS of 450+



Also, in every draw, almost 40%-50% of ITAs were given to CEC people, most probably because of they were supported with LMIA... if we consider at least 30% of ITAs given to CEC people in this draw then it will be 450 ITAs for CEC people ..



Combining all these hypothetical figures together:

700 from PNAs + 450 from CEC + 150 new eligible ITAs = 1300 ITAs for August-2015 draw.

Finally, if we want to make any assumptions (though it will be purely fictitious), we can say that next draw of August month will be purely PNP + CES/LMIA oriented with CRS cutoff well above 500.

 

[catherinelulu]

Aggregate Data on Applications for Permanent Residence through Express Entry
Application Received 7528
Applications in Progress 5,835
Applications Approved 655

By looking at those numbers above, it seems they can't approve applications as fast as expected. 655 out of 7528 have been approved and 5835 out of 7528 are still in progress. I'm not so sure how EE helps reduce processing time for getting PR. I can see if they do work this way, after a year or 2 yrs, they will have tons of applications in progress and the waiting period will be as long as before...

 

[GARJ]

This is great, detailed information on behalf of CIC. One thing to consider besides the numbers from this report is that Express Entry still remains in it's initial phase. The paragprah on Invitation rounds from the report reads:

"Implementing the Express Entry system was a significant undertaking and we continue to monitor it closely. During this initial start-up period, it is expected that the majority of admissions in 2015 are likely to come from applications submitted before January 1, 2015, i.e. not through Express Entry.

CIC has planned for small and regular invitation rounds in the first few months to allow for adjustments to the system, ensuring program integrity and its success.

As anticipated, small and frequent rounds have shaped the results to-date. For example, a large number of foreign nationals already working in Canada have received invitations to apply because they have job offers supported by an LMIA which awarded them 600 additional points under the Express Entry system. These early rounds have also likely included foreign nationals who were unable to apply before Express Entry because of occupation caps or because application space for programs was surpassed.

Future rounds from the Express Entry pool will become the main source of applications to meet annual immigration levels targets for certain economic immigration programs under the Express Entry system as the older inventories are reduced."

I'm expecting the rounds to be more frequent and ITAs sent in higher numbers starting soon, maybe as early as November. Express Entry is to be fully implement by 2017. I'm actually relieved by the numbers in the report, the applicants with a score higher than me are fewer and fewer each round. I am at 447 and this report has given me peace of mind. Definitely getting ITA soon!

 

[ounjal]

This is great, detailed information on behalf of CIC. One thing to consider besides the numbers from this report is that Express Entry still remains in it's initial phase. The paragprah on Invitation rounds from the report reads:

I'm expecting the rounds to be more frequent and ITAs sent in higher numbers starting soon, maybe as early as November. Express Entry is to be fully implement by 2017. I'm actually relieved by the numbers in the report, the applicants with a score higher than me are fewer and fewer each round. I am at 447 and this report has given me peace of mind. Definitely getting ITA soon!

Wishful thinking. But score will not drop below 450 for the rest of this year. CIC doesn't even need to make any more draws this year.

 

[av.citizen]

Wishful thinking. But score will not drop below 450 for the rest of this year. CIC doesn't even need to make any more draws this year.

But as the invited applicants from the second half of the year will count towards 2016 goals, then CIC will start issuing ITAs for a coming year. That's what I gathered from reading this forum. And keeping that in mind scores might still come down a bit.

 

[KingOfGoodTimes]

Aggregate Data on Applications for Permanent Residence through Express Entry
Application Received 7528
Applications in Progress 5,835
Applications Approved 655

By looking at those numbers above, it seems they can't approve applications as fast as expected. 655 out of 7528 have been approved and 5835 out of 7528 are still in progress. I'm not so sure how EE helps reduce processing time for getting PR. I can see if they do work this way, after a year or 2 yrs, they will have tons of applications in progress and the waiting period will be as long as before...

I completely agree , however why in 2 years time?
I think even now CIC will fail to meet the 6 months dead line.
I think this whole mid year data is presented in such as way as if ITA = PR (with very last line talking about actual application approvals).
which makes it look like a PR victory for the ruling government with elections around the corner.

I did some number crunching !

Application Received : 7,528
Applications in Progress : 5,835

that leave a staggering : 77.5 % of application before July still needs to be processed

That makes a Total :-

application processed : 1693
approved applications : 655

meaning 61 % of the applications where rejected !!

that is in 6 months approved application amounts to a mere 8%

which amounts to just over a 100 application approval per month for last 6 months!!
when compared with almost 1300 application received per month!!

 

[munjal]

I completely agree , however why in 2 years time?
I think even now CIC will fail to meet the 6 months dead line.
I think this whole mid year data is presented in such as way as if ITA = PR (with very last line talking about actual application approvals).
which makes it look like a PR victory for the ruling government with elections around the corner.

I did some number crunching !

Application Received : 7,528
Applications in Progress : 5,835

that leave a staggering : 77.5 % of application before July still needs to be processed

That makes a Total :-

application processed : 1693
approved applications : 655

meaning 61 % of the applications where rejected !!

that is in 6 months approved application amounts to a mere 8%

which amounts to just over a 100 application approval per month for last 6 months!!
when compared with almost 1300 application received per month!!

Nice analysis !

Though we need to consider one thing at this time, that CIC is still processing backlog applications of FSW2014.. and that is having a direct impact on overall time of processing EE applications.

We will see a large increase in EE appliation processing, once the entire backlog applications are processed.

"Implementing the Express Entry system was a significant undertaking and we continue to monitor it closely. During this initial start-up period, it is expected that the majority of admissions in 2015 are likely to come from applications submitted before January 1, 2015, i.e. not through Express Entry.

CIC has planned for small and regular invitation rounds in the first few months to allow for adjustments to the system, ensuring program integrity and its success.

As anticipated, small and frequent rounds have shaped the results to-date. For example, a large number of foreign nationals already working in Canada have received invitations to apply because they have job offers supported by an LMIA which awarded them 600 additional points under the Express Entry system. These early rounds have also likely included foreign nationals who were unable to apply before Express Entry because of occupation caps or because application space for programs was surpassed.

Future rounds from the Express Entry pool will become the main source of applications to meet annual immigration levels targets for certain economic immigration programs under the Express Entry system as the older inventories are reduced."

 

[KingOfGoodTimes]

Nice analysis !

Though we need to consider one thing at this time, that CIC is still processing backlog applications of FSW2014.. and that is having a direct impact on overall time of processing EE applications.

We will see a large increase in EE appliation processing, once the entire backlog applications are processed.

Good point , however I think this unrealistic timeline of 6 months is what causing VO to rejection many application which have been processed.
Think about it , If I am the VO , I would find every possible lapse in a submitted application which would lead to the rejection of that application!
So that I can meet the expected timeline.

By doing so the whole application process become merciless , it terms of tolerating minor mistakes in the submitted application!

 

[harshmaru]

Good point , however I think this unrealistic timeline of 6 months is what causing VO to rejection many application which have been processed.
Think about it , If I am the VO , I would find every possible lapse in a submitted application which would lead to the rejection of that application!
So that I can meet the expected timeline.

By doing so the whole application process become merciless , it terms of tolerating minor mistakes in the submitted application!

not necessarily the VO will think of rejection due to lapse in processing time. They need to give a valid reason why they are rejected. i think every rejection has to be considered another VO advice before sending the rejection letter.

 

[singh100]

@munjal

Good analysis. We may also need to think about the candidate who entered in the pool with low score and then they got LMIA or increased their score by IELTS to get an ITA..there is possibility that some ppl are increasing there score and then entering into 450+ block. And this factor must be good for the future draw to reduce the CRS point.

 

[munjal]

However,

This report missed completely to provide info about

• NOC wise distribution of applicants in each draw
• Age wise distribution of applicants in each draw
• PNP wise distribution of applicants in each draw
• Province wise distribution of applicants in each draw

 

[taffarel]

However,

This report missed completely to provide info about

• NOC wise distribution of applicants in each draw
• Age wise distribution of applicants in each draw
• PNP wise distribution of applicants in each draw
• Province wise distribution of applicants in each draw

PNP would be very informative and PNP's NOC as well.