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EE draws won't resume until May 2022!

m.soliman

Full Member
Mar 25, 2020
23
14
Take a look at:
https://www.cicnews.com/2021/11/ircc-looking-to-tackle-express-entry-backlogs-before-resuming-fswp-and-cec-invitations-1119698.html#gs.hl79ig

IRCC has nealy 100K EE backlog as of Oct 27th, and they won't resume drawing until they cut it in half, which is 50K to go.

And their speed is 4500/month, or on average 9000/month given they have to intive 110K per year, so 50K will take them 6 months.

Oct 27th plus 6 months is May 2022, meaning EE won't resume before that.

And at that time, FSW will have resumed already, of which there are 200K in backlog; and CEC will have accumulated applications for 8 months.

The conclusion is that CRS in 2022 will be higher than 500 the whole year.

Go PNP folks!
Are you assuming that there are two persons per application?
Is it a backlog of 100K persons or 100K applications?
 

m.soliman

Full Member
Mar 25, 2020
23
14
It took 57 days to decrease the EE backlog size by 8500 applications (i.e 4500 applications per month)
So to bring the 100K backlog to 50%, they need around 11 months to achieve this, assuming they keep the same pace of processing.
Am I missing something?
 
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powerssdd

Hero Member
Aug 4, 2019
207
51
Are you assuming that there are two persons per application?
Is it a backlog of 100K persons or 100K applications?
The news mentions:
This suggests the Express Entry backlog decreased by about 8,500 applications over the period between September 3rd and October 27 of this year.
So it is applications I think.

It doesn't matter if it is applications or people.

The key is that they can only reduce 4500/month, and they have 50K to go before resuming EE.

So the math indicates that EE won't resume until Sep 2022, unless they can speed up or no longer care about their promise.
 
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powerssdd

Hero Member
Aug 4, 2019
207
51
It took 57 days to decrease the EE backlog size by 8500 applications (i.e 4500 applications per month)
So to bring the 100K backlog to 50%, they need around 11 months to achieve this, assuming they keep the same pace of processing.
Am I missing something?
Yeah, that is what I have in my mind.
 

m.soliman

Full Member
Mar 25, 2020
23
14
The news mentions:


So it is applications I think.

It doesn't matter if it is applications or people.

The key is that they can only reduce 4500/month, and they have 50K to go before resuming EE.

So the math indicates that EE won't resume until Sep 2022, unless they can speed up or no longer care about their promise.
I agree with you, it doesn't matter 100K persons or applications. With the current processing rate, they will not resume FSW draws before Sep/Oct 2022. Maybe they would be able to process more applications, but the risk of a new Covid outbreak that forces them to work from home again is still there, so let it's assume 4500 app/m.

Regarding the cut-off CRS, I think it would be around 512 points by Oct 2022, assuming that the score get increased by 2 points from the last cut-off score for every month the draws are not being held. So the required CRS in Oct 2022 would be 512 points (468 + 22m x 2pts/m) and the score will decrease by around 1 point per month afterwards.
 

powerssdd

Hero Member
Aug 4, 2019
207
51
I agree with you, it doesn't matter 100K persons or applications. With the current processing rate, they will not resume FSW draws before Sep/Oct 2022. Maybe they would be able to process more applications, but the risk of a new Covid outbreak that forces them to work from home again is still there, so let it's assume 4500 app/m.

Regarding the cut-off CRS, I think it would be around 512 points by Oct 2022, assuming that the score get increased by 2 points from the last cut-off score for every month the draws are not being held. So the required CRS in Oct 2022 would be 512 points (468 + 22m x 2pts/m) and the score will decrease by around 1 point per month afterwards.
It is not just FSW, CEC has stopped for 2+ months.

Jan 2022 is a key point.

If there are draws in that month, everything would be fine, meaning althought IRCC wants to cut off the backlog in half, they don't want to suspend EE for too long, and the latter is more important for them.

But if there are not, then May or even Sep 2022 is what we should be looking at...
 

Twee

Hero Member
Oct 31, 2018
356
128
Perhaps they will resume drawing with the implementation of the new noc code which will base on tiers.
 

Jazkh

Star Member
Nov 27, 2019
83
44
It is not just FSW, CEC has stopped for 2+ months.

Jan 2022 is a key point.

If there are draws in that month, everything would be fine, meaning althought IRCC wants to cut off the backlog in half, they don't want to suspend EE for too long, and the latter is more important for them.

But if there are not, then May or even Sep 2022 is what we should be looking at...
Basically, most applicants are in a state of hopelessness. The 11,000 apps around the 480 range, can pretty much forget about it from the sounds of it.
 

powerssdd

Hero Member
Aug 4, 2019
207
51
Basically, most applicants are in a state of hopelessness. The 11,000 apps around the 480 range, can pretty much forget about it from the sounds of it.
This whole "EE being suspended" thing really shocked me.

They just did that without any precursor.

Early this year they even eliminated the requirement for CRS to invite more people, allowing applicants with a CRS as low as 67 to apply for PR, but then, all of a sudden, they realized that they didn't really need that many applicants.

What a joke! And now, as the result, people with decent CRSs have to wait indefinitely.

Then why didn't they make a better plan in the first place?

Figuring out how many people they needed and how big a backlog they already had is just elementary school math. Is it that difficult?

I would fire whoever was responsible for making the plan for sure if I were his/her boss.
 
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dankboi

VIP Member
Apr 19, 2021
3,687
11,099
London, United Kingdom
Category........
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This whole "suspending EE" thing really shocked me.

They just did that without any precursor.

Early this year they even eliminated the requirement for CRS to invite more people, but then, all of a sudden, they realized that they didn't really need that many applicants.

What a joke! And now, as the result, people with decent CRSs have to wait indefinitely.

Then why didn't they make a better plan in the first place?

Figuring out how many people they needed and how big a backlog they already had is just elementary school math. Is it that difficult?

I would fire whoever was responsible for making the plan for sure if I were his/her boss.
my response sounds offending but i'm one among y'll but not in a hurry yet i stay with everyone's feelings = )

They just did that without any precursor.
They can, it's their country

Early this year they even eliminated the requirement for CRS to invite more people, but then, all of a sudden, they realized that they didn't really need that many applicants.
Rumors are tr2pr will be returning in 2022

Then why didn't they make a better plan in the first place?
cause their politics, their benefits, they'll do whatever the fuck they want

I would fire whoever was responsible for making the plan for sure if I were his/her boss.
You won't, least you need to be the minister for immigration or the PM of Canada to fire whoever the fuck you want.

This lobbyist suggested immigration to go inland and create another easy pathway which later is named tr2pr, you may know this prick
This meowy found the opportunity amidst the pandemic to enhance his client base since most applicants are cec

 
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seadrag0n

Champion Member
Mar 6, 2018
2,784
2,490
This whole "EE being suspended" thing really shocked me.

They just did that without any precursor.

Early this year they even eliminated the requirement for CRS to invite more people, allowing applicants with a CRS as low as 67 to apply for PR, but then, all of a sudden, they realized that they didn't really need that many applicants.

What a joke! And now, as the result, people with decent CRSs have to wait indefinitely.

Then why didn't they make a better plan in the first place?

Figuring out how many people they needed and how big a backlog they already had is just elementary school math. Is it that difficult?

I would fire whoever was responsible for making the plan for sure if I were his/her boss.
The person responsible for all this is now the public safety minister and has already banned people from 10 countries from entering Canada. @Marco Mendicino, your comment on this matter will be appreciated.
 
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