Discussion: Canada Aims To Attract Up To 285,000 New Immigrants In 2015

[iwasjeff]

Canada Aims To Attract Up To 285,000 New Immigrants In 2015 - See more at: http://www.cicnews.com/2014/11/canada-aims-attract-285000-immigrants-2015-114047.html

From this article from November, 2014 - their goal is to hand out permanent residency to 169,000-185,200 applicants in 2015 under economic immigration, which includes CEC, and FSW.

I am just questioning.. these numbers because, as of JULY this year,

Aggregate Data on Applications for Permanent Residence through Express Entryas of July 6, 2015

They only received 7,528 application, 5,835 in progress, and 844 approved, and 411 visas were issued.

I understand they are still going thru some of early applications, but how do you think they will reach this target with this rate of processing application numbers and time?

 

[scylla]

This has already been discussed a million times. Express Entry will represent a very small number of the total. The majority of the economic immigrants receiving PR this year will have applied for PR in previous years.

 

[iwasjeff]

This has already been discussed a million times. Express Entry will represent a very small number of the total. The majority of the economic immigrants receiving PR this year will have applied for PR in previous years.

Right, if that is the case then how about next year? quotas don't change drastically year to year and I would still suspect about the same number of permanent residency that will be issued next year.

Next year then, people with lower scored will have better chances, I assume?

 

[mf4361]

Right, if that is the case then how about next year? quotas don't change drastically year to year and I would still suspect about the same number of permanent residency that will be issued next year.

Next year then, people with lower scored will have better chances, I assume?

Target do in fact change drastically year to year (depending on who runs the government)

Consider 2016 immigration target consist of people applied in EE after July 2015 and very few of those who applied pre-EE in 2014, composition of 2016 landed immigrants will mostly be people under EE.

 

[iwasjeff]

Target do in fact change drastically year to year (depending on who runs the government)

Consider 2016 immigration target consist of people applied in EE after July 2015 and very few of those who applied pre-EE in 2014, composition of 2016 landed immigrants will mostly be people under EE.

It's been steady around 220,000 to 250,000 last 10 years, even the transition from liberal to conservatives. I don't know how they will issue 50,000 from FSW (on average from last 10 years) with the new EE unless they drop the CRS cut off drastically?

 

[mf4361]

It's been steady around 220,000 to 250,000 last 10 years, even the transition from liberal to conservatives. I don't know how they will issue 50,000 from FSW (on average from last 10 years) with the new EE unless they drop the CRS cut off drastically?

As I said it depends on who runs the government. Harper had been in office since 2006.

But maybe you are right, after the pre-EE backlog has depleted, the only source for economic class immigrants will be under EE rules. So draws could be a lot bigger later. Although they probably won't double the draws in a sudden, they might ramp it up gradually.

 

[Asivad Anac]

It's been steady around 220,000 to 250,000 last 10 years. I don't know how they will issue 50,000 from FSW (on average from last 10 years) with the new EE unless they drop the CRS cut off drastically?

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.

 

[purohit]

Important to understand a few things here.

1. 2015 plans indicate estimated FSW intake to be about 47-51K, CEC to be about 21-23K and PNP to be about 46-48K. FSW and CEC are entirely through EE while major portion of PNP is still via the older paper-route (outside of EE).

2. The large chunk of intake for 2015 will be from the backlog and early 2015 EE draws. Most of the people drawn in 2015 will in fact contribute towards the 2016 intake.

3. These numbers include the overall application size including spouse/common-law partner/dependent children. It is rational to divide those numbers by 2/2.5/3 to get a realistic idea of the number of FSW/CEC candidates who get selected.

4. FSW intake also includes the numbers for FST.

5. After dividing those numbers optimistically by 2, that leaves us with a potential 2015 intake of 25k FSW+FST applicants and 11k CEC applicants.

Are you saying that if a Principal applicant gets invited say under fsw and he is accompanied by wife and a kid, the fsw cap counter is reduced by 3?

6. That possibly indicates 18,000 FSW PAs, 7000 FST PAs and 11,000 CEC PAs (this is guesswork based on general forum information).

7. These numbers could be even smaller depending on the average applicant's family size.

8. Overall, CIC needs to have about 36,000 PA's per year to meet their targets (assuming targets aren't revised downwards in 2016 and later).

9. That leads us to roughly 1500 ITAs in each draw and 2 draws per month. Of course, this excludes PNP category under EE.

10. CIC can certainly keep the cutoff above mid 400s and still meet their target of 36K while provinces can set their internal cutoffs depending on their requirements.