D-Day today! Much Awaited 1st Draw of September!

[viveksegu]

What makes you say that they have enough backlog for a few more years? Do you have a source for that?

Sorry, I dont have any source for that. But I dont see any source saying that all the backlogs have been cleared. If it could be cleared in a year, then they would have done it already, I think.

 

[swatiswati]

Good Luck everyone!

 

[GaganDesi]

Everybody is expecting this and I do not want to disappoint everyone. But you know CIC always does not work as you expected you know. Hoping for the best but expect the worst.

 

[Sluffy]

The video said "probably starting from September or October", so I personally do not expect any change today.
But will be happy if it happens

 

[moderator1983]

So let us expect they start issuing 1000-1200 ITA this time....

Wow... estimated so close... now hoping for

then they increase upto 2500 in three or four Draws.

 

[DamhaSirah]

So let us expect they start issuing 1000-1200 ITA this time....then they increase upto 2500 in three or four Draws.

Your prediction came true! Yippieeeeeeeeeeeeeee! The number of invites has finally gone up to 1,000 in this draw, after so many months. I am SOOOOO HAPPY! The CIC guy at Edmonton was true.

 

[Alexios07]

What makes you say that they have enough backlog for a few more years? Do you have a source for that?

Directly from IRCC, as of March 2016, they are having 383,159 applications in backlog (down 9% from March 2015) so don't trust anyone saying that IRCC will clear all the backlog in one year and lower the cut off score.

PR Application Processing (As of March 31st, 2016)

 

[Sluffy]

Directly from IRCC, as of March 2016, they are having 383,159 applications in backlog (down 9% from March 2015) so don't trust anyone saying that IRCC will clear all the backlog in one year and lower the cut off score.

PR Application Processing (As of March 31st, 2016)

I'm reading this in every "prediction" post and you do not even care to read other people's post that reject your opinion
Please interpret the stats carefully and extract the right data from your own links.

380K persons was a March 2016 backlog containing ALL immigration classes - Economic, Family, refugees, etc.
Only 190K are for economic class (including economic streams, business, startups, caregivers ) and only around 92K people (not applications!) are pre-EE backlog for FSW, FST, PNP, CEC - and that is what we really care about.
Applications are twice less in average (see principal applicant and dependants proportion)

 

[Alexios07]

I'm reading this in every "prediction" post and you do not even care to read other people's post that reject your opinion
Please interpret the stats carefully and extract the right data from your own links.

380K persons was a March 2016 backlog containing ALL immigration classes - Economic, Family, refugees, etc.
Only 190K are for economic class (including economic streams, business, startups, caregivers ) and only around 92K people (not applications!) are pre-EE backlog for FSW, FST, PNP, CEC - and that is what we really care about.
Applications are twice less in average (see principal applicant and dependants proportion)

Still cannot reject my main point that IRCC cannot clear those 190k or 92k backlog within this year or next year. Each application in the backlog successfully processed will eat up to the current quota.

In addition, IRCC does not process backlog specifically for economic streams only, they process all backlog at the same time, so can we stop with the baseless argument that "IRCC is clearing backlog" ? then I will stop posting this number.

 

[Sluffy]

Still cannot reject my main point that IRCC cannot clear those 190k or 92k backlog within this year or next year. Each application in the backlog successfully processed will eat up to the current quota.

In addition, IRCC does not process backlog specifically for economic streams only, they process all backlog at the same time, so can we stop with the baseless argument that "IRCC is clearing backlog" ? then I will stop posting this number.

To proceed 92k of people (which means 46k of applications) will take a bit less time, won't it? Approximately twice as less. It matters - one year or two years to clear the backlog, doesn't it?

By the way, the average rate of approval for pre-EE applications was 70% - observing from the previous years, so about 32.3k applications will be finalized with admission.
On the other hand, CIC issued about 30k ITAs under EE last year.
EE-applicants are sharing the 2016 quota with pre-EE under the economic stream. Once it is cleared, applications from EE only will be proceed which means increase in ITAs.
So the backlog is quite bearable to proceed, and even if it eats up the 2016 quota, it will most likely not eat the quota for 2017.

 

[Alexios07]

To proceed 92k of people (which means 46k of applications) will take a bit less time, won't it? Approximately twice as less. It matters - one year or two years to clear the backlog, doesn't it?

How do you come up with the 92k persons = 46k applications?

You also the fact the backlog number is not a constant. It also varies like every second with a tendency of increasing. Ex: the 2016 intake increased 34% compared to 2015's. Everytime an application got rejected, a new one will be reapplied, then new applications in family, caregiver, humanitarian, etc.

As long as there's backlog, IRCC manpower still got distracted to process them, no matter what streams they belong to.

 

[Sluffy]

How do you come up with the 92k persons = 46k applications?

The numbers provided in the table are for persons, not applications.
If you check the stats for admissions http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/ad975a26-df23-456a-8ada-756191a23695
you will see that under each stream there are two categories - p.a. (principle applicant) and s.d. (spouse and dependants), and their numbers go in proportion 1:1 or 1:1.2 (roughly). So it means about 2 persons per application in average.

 

[Sluffy]

You also the fact the backlog number is not a constant. It also varies like every second with a tendency of increasing. Ex: the 2016 intake increased 34% compared to 2015's. Everytime an application got rejected, a new one will be reapplied, then new applications in family, caregiver, humanitarian, etc.

Of course the general intake has increased because the general quota for 2016 increased comparing with 2015. Due to refugees and others, though economic quotas were reduced in this proportion.
The question is what part of the quota is eaten by the backlog. Even if the application is rejected, the place in quota is secured. And a person needs to apply under EE then (please correct me if I'm mistaken about re-application)
I do not care about humanitarian, caregivers, etc, as they do not influence the quota I am interested in.

You are trying to persuade that backlog will take a looong time, but I am pretty sure that applications for economic, family, caregivers are even proceeded by different deparments.

I am sorry, but looks like you read just two upper rows of the table and try to make predictions based on it without looking deeply into stats.
It's up to you, but you're keeping posting it in every topic which may confuse so many people.

 

[Alexios07]

The numbers provided in the table are for persons, not applications.
If you check the stats for admissions http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/ad975a26-df23-456a-8ada-756191a23695
you will see that under each stream there are two categories - p.a. (principle applicant) and s.d. (spouse and dependants), and their numbers go in proportion 1:1 or 1:1.2 (roughly). So it means about 2 persons per application in average.

Your source is a different set of data which it identifies between p.a and s.d. While the backlog excel file's name clearly says "Permanent and Temporary Resident Applications Overview"

http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/0186868b-a04d-4a0e-962e-bdfbac51bfb3

So the 383k backlog is applications not persons.

Of course the general intake has increased because the general quota for 2016 increased comparing with 2015. Due to refugees and others, though economic quotas were reduced in this proportion.
The question is what part of the quota is eaten by the backlog. Even if the application is rejected, the place in quota is secured. And a person needs to apply under EE then (please correct me if I'm mistaken about re-application)
I do not care about humanitarian, caregivers, etc, as they do not influence the quota I am interested in.

You are trying to persuade that backlog will take a looong time, but I am pretty sure that applications for economic, family, caregivers are even proceeded by different deparments.

I am sorry, but looks like you read just two upper rows of the table and try to make predictions based on it without looking deeply into stats.
It's up to you, but you're keeping posting it in every topic which may confuse so many people.

You are pretty sure that there's another immigration department besides IRCC that has the power to process PR applications? can you give me a source to backup your claim?

And how can you not care about the quotas of other streams like humanitarian or family class since they are all taken from the main quota?

Do I need to remind you about the Immigration Plan 2016? when IRCC increased the quotas for humanitarian and family streams then, as a result, the economic stream's quota got cut which led to the significantly decrease of ITA in EE.

If you take time to read the backlog file carefully, you can see IRCC processes applications from all streams at the same time. Ex: Economic backlog down 25%, and Humanitarian backlog's also down 17% in 2016.

In summary, it still takes at least several year for IRCC to clear all the backlog.

 

[Sluffy]

Your source is a different set of data which it identifies between p.a and s.d. While the backlog excel file's name clearly says "Permanent and Temporary Resident Applications Overview"

http://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/0186868b-a04d-4a0e-962e-bdfbac51bfb3

So the 383k backlog is applications not persons.

OMG
My source is official IRCC data as well is yours.
And if you open the file you provided the link to, what will you see? 383K of persons for all classes and streams.

http://pasteboard.co/1iTkdYMxf.png

And how can you not care about the quotas of other streams like humanitarian or family class since they are all taken from the main quota?

Do I need to remind you about the Immigration Plan 2016? when IRCC increased the quotas for humanitarian and family streams then, as a result, the economic stream's quota got cut which led to the significantly decrease of ITA in EE.

If you take time to read the backlog file carefully, you can see IRCC processes applications from all streams at the same time. Ex: Economic backlog down 25%, and Humanitarian backlog's also down 17% in 2016.

In summary, it still takes at least several year for IRCC to clear all the backlog.

Again
EE is for economic class only.

Yes. the economic quota was reduced comparing to 2015 and 100k is what we have to deal with.
For me personally it does not matter much how many refugees they are going to take instead.
100k is set and there's no option for me to go under any non-economic class or no hope that this quota will increase up to 120k because of miracle.
I need to get into this 100k.


Humanitarian, family, etc do not participate in Express Entry. They have separate quotas and separate streams. They do not receive ITAs and are not in the pool. They are proceed differently - different set of docs, other time frames.
Did you see any refugee applying under EE?
Any family member?

Target goal for economic class we are interested in is 100 k low (includes FSW, FST, CEC and PNP) or 114K high
And this 100 k per year are to be divided between pre-EE and EE applicants.

The volume of the backlog will determine in what proportion it will be divided between old and new applicants.

And no, it will not take years to clear the backlogs.

CIC issued around 30k ITAs in 2015 which means 30K applications. And they were successfully proceed within 6 months period for most of them.
And they were proceeding the backlogs in 2015 (though we do not know the volume)

in March 2016 they had 46K of pre-EE applications (see my previous post explaining why).
This numbers are quite comparable. CIC seems to have the capacity to proceed it pretty soon, not long years.


P.S. Looks like my non-canadian education is not so bad