OK, so now we are after 6 draws, we can create a decent statistical model of the pool based on the Express Entry spreadsheet.
We know (just like I predicted here: http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/a-possibly-plausible-theory-about-the-number-of-people-in-the-pool-and-scores-t271152.0.html) that the first draws had unusual number of 600+ applicants due to errors, and this is now confirmed by many people who got 600 points added by CIC's mistake. So the results of first draws are really irrelevant and we should not look at them.
The last two draws give us much better information, and we can see from them that the current EE spreadsheet contains about 4-5% of the pool, just like the previous year's spreadsheet for FSW (nobody should be really surprised by that).
So let's build a statistical model based on the current Excel contents. We need the following parameters:
* The relation of the spreadsheet population to the real pool population, let's assume it being from 4.0% to 5.5%.
* The distribution of people scores. Let's take the list of all scores from the spreadsheet below 600 and it will give us a good score distribution between applicants; not a perfect one, but definitely good enough. Then there is also this +600 factor, we will take it into account by introducing a probability of someone receiving LMIA or PNP. In the spreadsheet, 48 people out of 974 have above 600 points so we assume that this probability of someone having LMIA/PNP is around 5%.
* The number of people in the pool on day 0 (which is today). The spreadsheet contains today 813 people without ITA (that is, below 453 points).
* The number of people being added to the spreadsheet daily. From March 1 to March 28 there were 174 new entries in the spreadsheet, this gives on average 6.2 new entries per day.
* The dates and counts of future draws. Nobody knows these of course, but let's assume 2 draws per month, 1600 people each - this looks like a good assumption based on the draws done in March, and also based on immigration targets for 2015.
That's all the assumptions we need. They are not very accurate yet, but at this point should be accurate enough to build a simple model. So this is the actual model parametrized (sorry it's a PHP code - I'm a Web designer
):
http://pastebin.com/wEHvGwyB
What does the model tell us? Based on the assumed relation of the spreadsheet population to the real pool, we get the following results:
If the spreadsheet represents 5.5% of the pool:
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 437
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 427
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 415
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 409
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 400
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 394
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 388
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 384
If the spreadsheet represents 5.0% of the pool:
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 438
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 429
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 419
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 413
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 408
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 401
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 396
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 392
If the spreadsheet represents 4.5% of the pool:
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 439
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 432
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 423
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 417
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 412
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 409
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 403
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 399
If the spreadsheet represents 4.0% of the pool:
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 441
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 435
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 428
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 421
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 416
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 413
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 411
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 407
Personally I am leaning towards 4.5% - 5.0%. So that means that we should reach 400 around June/July.
Another interesting value is the final value when the draw score stabilizes. This is highly dependent on the ratio of new people added to the pool, to the number of people drawn, and this first parameter is derived from the spreadsheet and also not very accurate. But, just to give you a ballpark number, with the 5.0% spreadsheet-to-pool assumption, after two years (!) the model reaches somewhere around 360, and with the 4.5% assumption it reaches about 365. The actual stabilized score may be lower if the number of new people adding themselves to the pool will be dropping, or the number of people drawn will be higher than 3200-3300 per month as we see now. But generally I would say looking at these first approximations, that people above 360 should finally get their ITAs, though the wait may be really long.
We know (just like I predicted here: http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/a-possibly-plausible-theory-about-the-number-of-people-in-the-pool-and-scores-t271152.0.html) that the first draws had unusual number of 600+ applicants due to errors, and this is now confirmed by many people who got 600 points added by CIC's mistake. So the results of first draws are really irrelevant and we should not look at them.
The last two draws give us much better information, and we can see from them that the current EE spreadsheet contains about 4-5% of the pool, just like the previous year's spreadsheet for FSW (nobody should be really surprised by that).
So let's build a statistical model based on the current Excel contents. We need the following parameters:
* The relation of the spreadsheet population to the real pool population, let's assume it being from 4.0% to 5.5%.
* The distribution of people scores. Let's take the list of all scores from the spreadsheet below 600 and it will give us a good score distribution between applicants; not a perfect one, but definitely good enough. Then there is also this +600 factor, we will take it into account by introducing a probability of someone receiving LMIA or PNP. In the spreadsheet, 48 people out of 974 have above 600 points so we assume that this probability of someone having LMIA/PNP is around 5%.
* The number of people in the pool on day 0 (which is today). The spreadsheet contains today 813 people without ITA (that is, below 453 points).
* The number of people being added to the spreadsheet daily. From March 1 to March 28 there were 174 new entries in the spreadsheet, this gives on average 6.2 new entries per day.
* The dates and counts of future draws. Nobody knows these of course, but let's assume 2 draws per month, 1600 people each - this looks like a good assumption based on the draws done in March, and also based on immigration targets for 2015.
That's all the assumptions we need. They are not very accurate yet, but at this point should be accurate enough to build a simple model. So this is the actual model parametrized (sorry it's a PHP code - I'm a Web designer
):http://pastebin.com/wEHvGwyB
What does the model tell us? Based on the assumed relation of the spreadsheet population to the real pool, we get the following results:
If the spreadsheet represents 5.5% of the pool:
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 437
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 427
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 415
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 409
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 400
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 394
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 388
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 384
If the spreadsheet represents 5.0% of the pool:
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 438
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 429
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 419
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 413
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 408
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 401
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 396
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 392
If the spreadsheet represents 4.5% of the pool:
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 439
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 432
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 423
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 417
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 412
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 409
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 403
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 399
If the spreadsheet represents 4.0% of the pool:
April 1st draw: cutoff score = 441
April 2nd draw: cutoff score = 435
May 1st draw: cutoff score = 428
May 2nd draw: cutoff score = 421
June 1st draw: cutoff score = 416
June 2nd draw: cutoff score = 413
July 1st draw: cutoff score = 411
July 2nd draw: cutoff score = 407
Personally I am leaning towards 4.5% - 5.0%. So that means that we should reach 400 around June/July.
Another interesting value is the final value when the draw score stabilizes. This is highly dependent on the ratio of new people added to the pool, to the number of people drawn, and this first parameter is derived from the spreadsheet and also not very accurate. But, just to give you a ballpark number, with the 5.0% spreadsheet-to-pool assumption, after two years (!) the model reaches somewhere around 360, and with the 4.5% assumption it reaches about 365. The actual stabilized score may be lower if the number of new people adding themselves to the pool will be dropping, or the number of people drawn will be higher than 3200-3300 per month as we see now. But generally I would say looking at these first approximations, that people above 360 should finally get their ITAs, though the wait may be really long.
