IRCC recently released statistics (updated to Oct 31 as of today Dec 2) regarding the current backlog:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/stronger-immigration-system.html
Out of 332,000 Citizenship applications in the current inventory, 232,000 (70%) are being processed to the service standard (12 months) and this is expected to reach 75% by the end of 2022.
So most (70%) of applications are being processed on or before the service standard (12 months) and the service standard will probably be resumed in 2023.
However this does not mean that the significant BACKLOG will have been cleared; routine files may still take months of years to be processed. It is my analysis that IRCC is manipulating their statistics to mislead the public, and make it appear as if they are meeting targets, whilst there is still a significant backlog (almost 100,000 files).
Reading between the lines:
1. The current processing time is currently 24 months and applies to the time taken to process 80% of applications. If it is taking up to 12 months to process 70% of applications, and 24 months to process an additional 10%, the backlogged files are currently being processed at a rate of 108 months (9 years), which means very very slowly, and the 20% are probably on hold, which is tens and thousands of files.
2. Files are being deemed as backlogged. This is evidenced by the fact that these statistics apply to the current inventory and IRCC is able to confidently declare how many WILL BE processed on time, depending on their capacity increase per month.
3. For the first time, IRCC is now referring to the 20% as a "backlog". It is my analysis that IRCC is seeking to give the false impression to the public that there is normally a 20% backlog; to normalise there being a backlog at any given time. However backlogs are NOT normal. Normally, IRCC refers to the 20% of files that aren't able to be processed within service standards as "non-routine" and a direct product of complexity rather than a backlog. "Backlog" surely refers to files that cannot be processed on time, or at all, due to resource limitations. However now, even a "routine" file can be backlogged, due to IRCC's resource limitations.
4. In previous backlog scenarios (such as when happened during the move to Online Express Entry for PR), there was a cut-off date for old paper applications to define backlogged applications, a separate service standard an a separate plan of action, whilst new applications were being processed faster. However in this current "backlog" situation, it seems that there is a rolling quota for each month/quarter, such that 70% of cases are processed on time and 30% are somehow deemed as "backlogged", regardless of when they were received and their complexity. So a routine file received today could be deemed as "backlog", which is ridiculous as the word backlog implies a previous accumulation. This is evidenced by the forum spreadsheet data, which shows approx. 65% of files from Jan-Sep 2021 processed within 12 months and even routine files taking time.
5. We know that in 2021, paper applications were prioritised to be processed over online, and that online files had a specific quarterly quota; so regardless of complexity, if the online quota was met for a given quarter, your online file would simply stall, regardless of its complexity. It is not known whether this policy is still in force, and if so, what the current online processing quotas are.
6. We know that under normal processing conditions, there is a first-come, first-served policy, which means that in general files may move according to their AOR date, although some files can take more or less time due to additional processing, and that up to 20% may miss the 12 month target (i.e. non-routine) due to info requests, case complexity, background screening, and the various risk factors, triage criteria etc that relate to categorising files for further review/rq etc. However currently it is apparent that the backlog is influencing this; as even routine files are taking longer, and some apparently non-routine files are meeting the 12 month target.
7. Since "backlog" is now being termed by IRCC as being any file that they don't have the capacity to process on time (rather than complexity), and that a file received today can become "backlogged", what we don't know is what criteria are being used to label a file as being "backlogged". Is it a random, lucky draw? Is anything out of the ordinary being used to deem a file as being in the backlog? Are officers being given targets to meet e.g. you must process 70% within 12 months, or you must declare 30% as backlogged. Are partner agencies (e.g. CSIS) being asked to sit on files?
8. What this means is that within a few months, when the 80% processing target is met, the 24 month processing time will become 12 months, and IRCC will claim that it's back to business as usual, but this would be a lie as those "backlogged" will continue to be face months, or years of delay, even if their file is routine.
9. So the question is, what is their plan to process and CLEAR the backlog, or does IRCC intend to make it a new-normal to always have a 20% backlog at any given time, as the current manipulative wording on the above website seems to suggest?
Bottomline: IRCC would appear to be massaging the statistics and wording to claim to make it appear that they are, or will soon be, processing files on time by normalising the backlog. An ATIP request from senior members may help clarify this.
Comments welcome. Please keep the discussion respectful, and fact-based, so that it doesn't get deleted.
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/mandate/stronger-immigration-system.html
Out of 332,000 Citizenship applications in the current inventory, 232,000 (70%) are being processed to the service standard (12 months) and this is expected to reach 75% by the end of 2022.
So most (70%) of applications are being processed on or before the service standard (12 months) and the service standard will probably be resumed in 2023.
However this does not mean that the significant BACKLOG will have been cleared; routine files may still take months of years to be processed. It is my analysis that IRCC is manipulating their statistics to mislead the public, and make it appear as if they are meeting targets, whilst there is still a significant backlog (almost 100,000 files).
Reading between the lines:
1. The current processing time is currently 24 months and applies to the time taken to process 80% of applications. If it is taking up to 12 months to process 70% of applications, and 24 months to process an additional 10%, the backlogged files are currently being processed at a rate of 108 months (9 years), which means very very slowly, and the 20% are probably on hold, which is tens and thousands of files.
2. Files are being deemed as backlogged. This is evidenced by the fact that these statistics apply to the current inventory and IRCC is able to confidently declare how many WILL BE processed on time, depending on their capacity increase per month.
3. For the first time, IRCC is now referring to the 20% as a "backlog". It is my analysis that IRCC is seeking to give the false impression to the public that there is normally a 20% backlog; to normalise there being a backlog at any given time. However backlogs are NOT normal. Normally, IRCC refers to the 20% of files that aren't able to be processed within service standards as "non-routine" and a direct product of complexity rather than a backlog. "Backlog" surely refers to files that cannot be processed on time, or at all, due to resource limitations. However now, even a "routine" file can be backlogged, due to IRCC's resource limitations.
4. In previous backlog scenarios (such as when happened during the move to Online Express Entry for PR), there was a cut-off date for old paper applications to define backlogged applications, a separate service standard an a separate plan of action, whilst new applications were being processed faster. However in this current "backlog" situation, it seems that there is a rolling quota for each month/quarter, such that 70% of cases are processed on time and 30% are somehow deemed as "backlogged", regardless of when they were received and their complexity. So a routine file received today could be deemed as "backlog", which is ridiculous as the word backlog implies a previous accumulation. This is evidenced by the forum spreadsheet data, which shows approx. 65% of files from Jan-Sep 2021 processed within 12 months and even routine files taking time.
5. We know that in 2021, paper applications were prioritised to be processed over online, and that online files had a specific quarterly quota; so regardless of complexity, if the online quota was met for a given quarter, your online file would simply stall, regardless of its complexity. It is not known whether this policy is still in force, and if so, what the current online processing quotas are.
6. We know that under normal processing conditions, there is a first-come, first-served policy, which means that in general files may move according to their AOR date, although some files can take more or less time due to additional processing, and that up to 20% may miss the 12 month target (i.e. non-routine) due to info requests, case complexity, background screening, and the various risk factors, triage criteria etc that relate to categorising files for further review/rq etc. However currently it is apparent that the backlog is influencing this; as even routine files are taking longer, and some apparently non-routine files are meeting the 12 month target.
7. Since "backlog" is now being termed by IRCC as being any file that they don't have the capacity to process on time (rather than complexity), and that a file received today can become "backlogged", what we don't know is what criteria are being used to label a file as being "backlogged". Is it a random, lucky draw? Is anything out of the ordinary being used to deem a file as being in the backlog? Are officers being given targets to meet e.g. you must process 70% within 12 months, or you must declare 30% as backlogged. Are partner agencies (e.g. CSIS) being asked to sit on files?
8. What this means is that within a few months, when the 80% processing target is met, the 24 month processing time will become 12 months, and IRCC will claim that it's back to business as usual, but this would be a lie as those "backlogged" will continue to be face months, or years of delay, even if their file is routine.
9. So the question is, what is their plan to process and CLEAR the backlog, or does IRCC intend to make it a new-normal to always have a 20% backlog at any given time, as the current manipulative wording on the above website seems to suggest?
Bottomline: IRCC would appear to be massaging the statistics and wording to claim to make it appear that they are, or will soon be, processing files on time by normalising the backlog. An ATIP request from senior members may help clarify this.
Comments welcome. Please keep the discussion respectful, and fact-based, so that it doesn't get deleted.
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