hinavin said:
Hey folks,
Any idea if for any application filed in July 2015 is anticipated to factor the older 3 yr or the revised 4 yr rule?
(Not sure if this post is still actively monitored!)
Rgds
There is a chance that a July application will still be processed pursuant to the current three years resident in Canada requirement, but there is probably a greater likelihood that applications received at CIC after June 30, 2015 will be processed pursuant to the four years actual presence within six requirement.
The most any of us can honestly say at this stage is that
we do NOT know when the amended version of Section 5(1) of the
Citizenship Act will come into force, but that it will undoubtedly come into force this year
before the Federal election takes place (latest possible date for the election is October 19), and most likely by mid-summer 2015, although perhaps sooner.
Longer explanation with background:
There is no official statement as to when the amended version of Section 5(1) of the
Citizenship Act will come into force.
There has been no informal or unofficial statement regarding the likely date since the CIC announcement last June vaguely stating that the changes to the residency requirement (which is section 5(1), and which will implement the 4/6 rule replacing the current 3/4 rule) will take effect in approximately a year.
It is highly unlikely that anyone knows much more than this outside a very close knit-circle, close to the PM and probably within the PMO (thus not a circle around Minister Alexander, albeit Minister Alexander himself may be within the close-knit circle who knows).
While the announcement last June 19 said "approximately a year," given the manner in which this government uses language, not much can be read into that, and in particular the reference to "approximately" undoubtedly embraces a very, very large window of time.
Thus, it could be more than a year, or less than a year, by months.
Before mid-summer is highly likely.
My
guess is that it will be no later than August 1, 2015, and September 1 at the very latest, but more likely by July 1st or sooner.
MPs, even most members of the Cabinet, probably do not know any more precisely than that. Most CIC staff probably do not know any more precisely than that. Some upper level CIC staff may have a good idea, without knowing the precise date, but they are almost certainly not going to divulge that publicly or to anyone who would divulge it publicly (or even to CIC staff generally).
No one here has any better idea of when it will be than that (including me of course). Claims otherwise are not at all credible.
Oddsmakers are likely to give July 1, 2015 the best odds.
If one was betting in the manner of betting on a horse race, betting on what the bettor believes is the most likely three dates (a
to show bet), in addition to July 1st, I suppose June 1 and August 1 would be the oddsmaker's picks. Personally, though, I'd just split my bets on June 1 and July 1 and not do a to-show bet (my sense is that it will most likely be July 1 or sooner -- my
guess I should say with emphasis).
No matter which date it is, there will be many, many thousands of PRs cutoff from qualifying in a way that will add a year or so to how long they will have to wait to qualify and apply.
Finally, we also
do NOT know how much notice there will be, if any, before the amended version comes into force. There was
NO notice before the provisions which came into force on August 1, 2014 as to the date those would come into force.
As the actual date approaches there should be some clues. As the actual date approaches more personnel at CIC should at least have a strong clue that the date is coming. There is no guarantee the cutoff date will be the 1st of a month but that seems likely. So, there are likely to be somewhat credible rumours leaking out of CIC in the month or so prior to the actual date the amended residency requirement takes effect.
My guess regarding advance notice:
My
guess regarding advance notice is that there will be some notice, but not much.
My
guess is that there will be actual notice in the range of a week to ten days.
Prior to that, my guess, is that the CIC rumour leaks are likely to circulate publicly around three or four weeks prior to the date.
Then, again just my
guess, is that CIC will give some actual notice, perhaps approximately the same amount of notice as CIC just gave for the January 1st fee increase . . . as I said, in the range of a week to ten days.
Note that, in contrast, the February 2014 fee increase was implemented with
NO notice . . . which almost certainly resulted in hundreds if not many thousands of returned applications, more bother than it was worth for CIC. That, I think, clued upper-level decision-makers in CIC that at least
some notice is required to avoid huge piles of applications which have to be handled only to be returned. Hard to say, though, whether that understanding will influence the PM and PMO (who ultimately decides the effective date and when to make the "order" itself, that is, whether or not to make the order itself sufficiently in advance of the date specified in the order to give at least some notice), since this PM and his inner circle tend to operate as if they know best, often with minimal if any input from outside the inner circle.
I would also venture that the decision as to the effective date has already been made. Thus, probably some people know, although the number of people who know is probably very, very few.
