>>>>>>AOR November 2022<<<<<<<**Join Here**

[YensalEta]

I also same dates for everything. lets stay in touch

I'll keep posting my progress here!

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Thanks again, I did not receive the BIL, they just linked my biometrics (collected for study permit) to my EE application, so I am not sure what it means.

I know I was overthinking about my application, but I need to get my PR by next September, so it's so stressful for me to wait everyday.

Oh I see. Medicals will pass. If not, they will request additional screenings. No guarantees of course, but there is a very very good chance your PR application gets processed by September. Although IRCC is well behind schedule with their service standard, I still think it's faster than it was pre-July. IMO there is a high probability of the majority of apps being processed in 6-8 months.

 

[Stina747]

Same here… waiting
Stream: Express Entry - PNP Ontario (French speaking)
Nationality: Mauritian
ITA: 15 Sept 22
Medical: 3 Oct 22
AOR: 27 Oct 22
Biometrics: 15 Nov 22

 

[flaviosilva]

Adding a sense of groundedness to this forum:

Based on immitracker data, here's the percentage of applications fully processed since April:

April: 66.67% (did not meet 6 month service standard)
May: 53.57% (unlikely to meet service standard)
June: 37.5% (unlikely to meet service standard)
July: 25.93% (unlikely to meet service standard)
August: 17.46%
September: 10.64%
October: 1.65%
November: 1.52%

Let's not get excited on seeing a couple of early PPRs.

1. Despite halting all but a few 100 PNP draws every 2 weeks, IRCC has still failed to meet the service standard for applications post April.
2. The number of applications has literally increased 10x since July. So it is obvious that you will see a few more PPRs posted in these threads. This does not mean that they are being processed faster. As a percentage, this is still likely to be a smaller number than you would want to be on track for 6 month processing.

I am aware that immitracker data isn't entirely representative or reliable. If someone has a different source of data, please let me know. Let's not lose our heads mindlessly tracking ghost updates and PPRs. Keep simple stats in mind, not individual cases.

I agree with you in parts, but there are some things I would like to point out:

1. IRCC never promised to process 100% in less than 6 months... but actually 80% in less than 6 months. This is their service standard.
2. Although Immitracker is a fantastic tool, we have to take into consideration that lots of users forget to update their cases on the website or only do it after months. Just this week I've seen around 5 users updating their PPRs from at least 2 months ago. That being said, there's a high chance that the numbers showed on Immitracker are slightly lower than the reality if we consider a certain number of users have received their PPRs (or refusals) and haven't updated their profiles yet. It's impossible, however, to tell the impact of this on the numbers.
3. If we take both points above into consideration, I would say that it's likely that IRCC has met their service standard (80% in 6 months) for April at least.
4. IRCC already knew how many ITAs they would send out every month, how many officers they had and how many applications they had in their backlogs, and even with all of that, they have repeatedly come out to say and promise they would meet their service standards for those applying after July 2022. I'd like to believe they have reasons to say that and that they weren't just full of shit. Probably more officers allocated to process EE applications than they had previously, or maybe some new tech being used. And I also believe there's some evidence showing this: If we look at the number of days between AOR and Medicals Passed, for example, you will see that the number has dropped drastically compared to pre-July. It used to be 30-60 days and now it's around around 15-20 days (I got mine in 13 days). I know this is not much, but you have to agree that even with 10 times more applications now, they're being able to process their medicals in half the time they used to in the past, which means that, for sure, they have more officers processing (at least the medicals) compared to the past, which leads me to think they also have more officers processing the rest of the application as well, as it wouldn't make any sense to process just the medicals faster and leave all the rest in a huge backlog like they used to do.

Anyway, I try not to be too optimistic too, but there are some signs that things in 2022 aren't like they used to be in 2020/2021.
Given all the facts, I would say expecting your application to be processed within six months is not too unrealistic but there's nothing certain either.
Let's all hope I'm right and expect things to continue moving without creating much false hope.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

I agree with you in parts, but there are some things I would like to point out:

1. IRCC never promised to process 100% in less than 6 months... but actually 80% in less than 6 months. This is their service standard.
2. Although Immitracker is a fantastic tool, we have to take into consideration that lots of users forget to update their cases on the website or only do it after months. Just this week I've seen around 5 users updating their PPRs from at least 2 months ago. That being said, there's a high chance that the numbers showed on Immitracker are slightly lower than the reality if we consider a certain number of users have received their PPRs (or refusals) and haven't updated their profiles yet. It's impossible, however, to tell the impact of this on the numbers.
3. If we take both points above into consideration, I would say that it's likely that IRCC has met their service standard (80% in 6 months) for April at least.
4. IRCC already knew how many ITAs they would send out every month, how many officers they had and how many applications they had in their backlogs, and even with all of that, they have repeatedly come out to say and promise they would meet their service standards for those applying after July 2022. I'd like to believe they have reasons to say that and that they weren't just full of shit. Probably more officers allocated to process EE applications than they had previously, or maybe some new tech being used. And I also believe there's some evidence showing this: If we look at the number of days between AOR and Medicals Passed, for example, you will see that the number has dropped drastically compared to pre-July. It used to be 30-60 days and now it's around around 15-20 days (I got mine in 13 days). I know this is not much, but you have to agree that even with 10 times more applications now, they're being able to process their medicals in half the time they used to in the past, which means that, for sure, they have more officers processing (at least the medicals) compared to the past, which leads me to think they also have more officers processing the rest of the application as well, as it wouldn't make any sense to process just the medicals faster and leave all the rest in a huge backlog like they used to do.

Yessir.
1. I'm fully aware the service standaard is 80% in 6 months.. I have mentioned this in follow up posts.
2. I have also said that immitracker is not perfect, but it is the only source you have. You're just making a fairly blind assumption saying "many people dont update after PPRs", based on the few that you have seen. Okay, I can make the exact opposite assumption saying everyone else does without fail. Both are entirely meaningless. Fact of the matter is, we have this imperfect dataset in front of us, and adding baseless assumptions to twist the results in our favor isn't doing any good.
3. "If you take into consideration my baseless assumptions, the results are favorable". Sorry, can't agree. Like you pointed out, they also said that the service standard will apply to new applications (implying applications starting after July APDs). So there is a small chance they're trying to expidite new apps to falsify the average processing time to a more favorable level. As you can imagine, this would be "good" for post July AORs, and bad for pre-July. And I think we can both agree it isn't fair in any way.
4. " I'd like to believe they have reasons to say that and that they weren't just full of shit". Well given the last two years, I'd like to not believe that. They have apparently hired more people that's true. And medicals passing quickly could be a good sign yes. But keep in mind medicals are the most mechanical of the steps. It's not the place where applications get stuck. It's very very difficult to get consistent and reliable data on eligibility pass timelines. In the absence of that, I won't be putting much weight on MEPs coming a little quicker.

I have said in several posts to expect PPRs in 6-8 months is very realistic. The point of my post was to tell people not to lose their minds when they see a PPR in 1-2 months. You should see some of these trackers people have where they assume PPR in 3 months is a guarantee and have a column "Expected days to PPR" which is (90 - Days since AOR). It's laughable. Then they track GUs like mindless zombies as if a GU means anything. Eligibility is by far the most time consuming step of the process, and there are no updates on this.

Anyway, I try not to be too optimistic too, but there are some signs that things in 2022 aren't like they used to be in 2020/2021.
Given all the facts, I would say expecting your application to be processed within six months is not too unrealistic but there's nothing certain either.
Let's all hope I'm right and expect things to continue moving without creating much false hope.

Yeah I agree. Again, my point was to just ask the people freaking out about not getting their PPR in 3 months to chill the f out.

Also, just noticed, our timeline is pretty much identical. I am working under the assumption of PPR by May or June. It is *unlikely* that it'll be delayed more, and if it happens earlier, cool. Doesn't change my plans in any way. I'm not going to be feverishly checking my account everyday and start calling/ordering GCMS notes 2 months in because "others are getting PPR and I don't even have a ghost update"

Edit: Also also, my post comes across as very combative. It's not, I just tend to talk bluntly. I appreciate your POV, and we're very much in agreement to begin with. PPR in 6 months is still very realistic. My point is just that expecting PPR in 2-3 months is idiotic.

 

[pankajnse]

I agree with you in parts, but there are some things I would like to point out:

1. IRCC never promised to process 100% in less than 6 months... but actually 80% in less than 6 months. This is their service standard.
2. Although Immitracker is a fantastic tool, we have to take into consideration that lots of users forget to update their cases on the website or only do it after months. Just this week I've seen around 5 users updating their PPRs from at least 2 months ago. That being said, there's a high chance that the numbers showed on Immitracker are slightly lower than the reality if we consider a certain number of users have received their PPRs (or refusals) and haven't updated their profiles yet. It's impossible, however, to tell the impact of this on the numbers.
3. If we take both points above into consideration, I would say that it's likely that IRCC has met their service standard (80% in 6 months) for April at least.
4. IRCC already knew how many ITAs they would send out every month, how many officers they had and how many applications they had in their backlogs, and even with all of that, they have repeatedly come out to say and promise they would meet their service standards for those applying after July 2022. I'd like to believe they have reasons to say that and that they weren't just full of shit. Probably more officers allocated to process EE applications than they had previously, or maybe some new tech being used. And I also believe there's some evidence showing this: If we look at the number of days between AOR and Medicals Passed, for example, you will see that the number has dropped drastically compared to pre-July. It used to be 30-60 days and now it's around around 15-20 days (I got mine in 13 days). I know this is not much, but you have to agree that even with 10 times more applications now, they're being able to process their medicals in half the time they used to in the past, which means that, for sure, they have more officers processing (at least the medicals) compared to the past, which leads me to think they also have more officers processing the rest of the application as well, as it wouldn't make any sense to process just the medicals faster and leave all the rest in a huge backlog like they used to do.

Anyway, I try not to be too optimistic too, but there are some signs that things in 2022 aren't like they used to be in 2020/2021.
Given all the facts, I would say expecting your application to be processed within six months is not too unrealistic but there's nothing certain either.
Let's all hope I'm right and expect things to continue moving without creating much false hope.

short but to-the-point analysis and quite in line with my previous post. Every step in the AOR to PPR requires people to look at the information/data, analyze and take decisions. Nothing is mechanical/automated as assumed. There will always be outliers that take longer than usual time due to various reasons that are specific to their application, and there will always be some who defeat the average time and get the results in way less time like 1-3 months. It is brainless to state …..stop monitoring your application for the next six months as nothing is going to happen. Although it is not advisable to order case notes unless the service standard is crossed.

 

[fortunacia]

Hi,
CRS: 506
Category: CEC
ITA: 09/11/2022
Upfront medical exam: 11/27/2022
Nationality: French

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

There will always be outliers that take longer than usual time due to various reasons that are specific to their application, and there will always be some who defeat the average time and get the results in way less time like 1-3 months.

Hey you said it yourself. And yet people are happy to delude themselves by looking at longer apps as anomalies and shorter PPRs as the norm.

It is brainless to state …..stop monitoring your application for the next six months as nothing is going to happen.

I'm assuming you're referring to my post, so I'm just going to say I didn't say stop monitoring for the next six months. I meant that the only valuable information you're going to get until PPR is an ADR. GUs are meaningless, and random people getting PPRs don't mean anything to your app.

Every step in the AOR to PPR requires people to look at the information/data, analyze and take decisions.

It literally doesn't. Once you have your AOR, unless your life circumstances change (marriage, change of COR etc) or you have an ADR, there is literally no decision you have to take until the service standard is crossed or you feel like ordering GCMS notes. You can check your application twice a day until you get PPR, and I promise you, it won't expedite you timeline lmao.

And GCMS notes give you solid clear information about you application. GUs don't. By all means, check regularly in case you get an ADR. That's very important. But most of the "tracking" some people are doing is what's actually "brainless".

 

[cef09]

Hey you said it yourself. And yet people are happy to delude themselves by looking at longer apps as anomalies and shorter PPRs as the norm.


I'm assuming you're referring to my post, so I'm just going to say I didn't say stop monitoring for the next six months. I meant that the only valuable information you're going to get until PPR is an ADR. GUs are meaningless, and random people getting PPRs don't mean anything to your app.


It literally doesn't. Once you have your AOR, unless your life circumstances change (marriage, change of COR etc) or you have an ADR, there is literally no decision you have to take until the service standard is crossed or you feel like ordering GCMS notes. You can check your application twice a day until you get PPR, and I promise you, it won't expedite you timeline lmao.

And GCMS notes give you solid clear information about you application. GUs don't. By all means, check regularly in case you get an ADR. That's very important. But most of the "tracking" some people are doing is what's actually "brainless".

Doesn't stop me from checking once or twice a day like a dumbass though lol

 

[Saboo]

Hi everyone,

CEC inland

AOR: 8th NOV
MEP and BIL: 22 NOV

No other update yet

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

Doesn't stop me from checking once or twice a day like a dumbass though lol

Haha I've just found the wait is significantly easier if I just don't log in. I check once a week and forget about it. My 3 year wait for the ITA got so much easier when I stopped giving a sh*t.

And I guess I'm lucky because I don't use chrome and IRCC's trash website doesn't work on other browsers about 80% of the time. Enough failed logins and you lose the desire to try lol

 

[TGEINDIA]

ITA 12th October 2022
AOR 5th November 2022
BIL/MEL 17th November 2022
GU1 18th November 2022
Biometrics 22nd November 2022

 

[prince_10_243]

Doesn't stop me from checking once or twice a day like a dumbass though lol

I can completely relate with you. It has been three weeks that I had my AOR and still no updates, I am freaking out as I see others that had their AOR after mine getting their BIL .
I check my account 5 times a day

 

[pankajnse]

Hey you said it yourself. And yet people are happy to delude themselves by looking at longer apps as anomalies and shorter PPRs as the norm.


I'm assuming you're referring to my post, so I'm just going to say I didn't say stop monitoring for the next six months. I meant that the only valuable information you're going to get until PPR is an ADR. GUs are meaningless, and random people getting PPRs don't mean anything to your app.


It literally doesn't. Once you have your AOR, unless your life circumstances change (marriage, change of COR etc) or you have an ADR, there is literally no decision you have to take until the service standard is crossed or you feel like ordering GCMS notes. You can check your application twice a day until you get PPR, and I promise you, it won't expedite you timeline lmao.

And GCMS notes give you solid clear information about you application. GUs don't. By all means, check regularly in case you get an ADR. That's very important. But most of the "tracking" some people are doing is what's actually "brainless".

If you did not say it, then don't worry about it
people=IRCC people. reading the statement again should make sense now.
Also, agree there is nothing that can be done to expedite the application unless something/action is pending from the applicant.
GU's don't mean anything ?? This is just your opinion and you may have your reasons for assuming that which is fine. AFAIK, based on the timelines I am seeing, GU's actually mean the file is being worked upon and it is moving towards a decision (+/-). There is no other way to know/track progress except GCMS notes to be sure of.
on the frequency of checking application status, I have also seen examples where people missed seeing and responding to their ADR/PPRs. And I get It, it may be tough to agree on what is brainless now.
The larger point I am trying to communicate is don't go overboard on spraying an opinion just because one has it.

 

[Deleted member 1006777]

GU's don't mean anything ?? This is just your opinion and you may have your reasons for assuming that which is fine.

Perhaps an opinion, but it's just informed by an understanding of the bgc process. You may be aware of the following, but for those who aren't:
1. GUs happen because background/security have three stages. When one of the stages is complete, you may get a GU. But remember that GUs are not consistently triggered.
2. Security and background is typically not the most time consuming stages of the entire application process. Most applications get stuck during eligibility. And eligibility may not even start by the time your entire security is complete. That's the reason tracking GUs doesn't help, because tehre is no relation to other stages.

I'm not blindly forming an opinion. I look at what data we have available and come to a conclusion based on that. If suddenly we get real evidence (not anecdotal "my friend got PPR after GU" nonsense) that shows GUs are actually useful to track timelines, I'll be the first one to admit it.

Prior to 2017 there were other metrics people would track such as False IP1/2 and Real IP1/2. From what I have read, this has changed too, and that information isn't available easily to begin with.

based on the timelines I am seeing, GU's actually mean the file is being worked upon and it is moving towards a decision (+/-)

Yes, of course it means the application is possibly being worked on. What it doesn't tell you is how close you are to PPR. Don't conflate the two. For those 2020 and 2019 apps that haven't been touched in several months, a sudden GU is certainly good news. For people who got their AORs a month or two ago, it's a red herring, nothing more.

No wars. The real enemy is IRCC for how they've handled Express Entry. Check your profiles as frequently as you'd like, but keep your mental health in check too. The broader point that I am trying to make is that this won't really affect the outcome of your application, so why bother tracking GUS etc? Regardless, check your profile when you feel like it, and take it easy. We're all pretty closes to PPR now. The hard part of the process is over.