Hi, I got ppr a few days ago. 
I got lots of help from this forum. So, I wanted to help you guys as well. Hope this help you...
I tried to to calculate the current applications(CRS 450 ~ 470) in the pool from the Express Entry Year-End Report 2015.
I also tried to clarify how many applications are getting in the pool every two weeks.
Oops.. I cannot add images...
(please let me know if you know how to insert images...)
I will try my best to explain...
1. LMIA % in 2015
ITA(total 31063)
pnp: 13% (ITA 4105)
FSW+FST+CEC (with LMIA): 47%(ITA 14532 )
FSW+FST+CEC (without LMIA): 40% (ITA 12425 )
-> Most ITAs with LMIA(47%) will be assigned to the applications without LMIA. Therefore, CRS will be dropped as all of us knows.
2. New applications above CRS 450 (in 2015)
I calculated 3 set of 2 adjacent draws to figure out how many applications are getting in the pool in 2 weeks.
Round Date CRS
17 Sept. 18 450
18 Oct 2 450
22 Dec 4 461
23 Dec 18 460
13 Jul 17 451
14 Aug 7 471
After calculating the applications without LMIA, I got these numbers.
CRS "New application in 2 weeks(without LMIA)"
450 ~ 460 Approx. 200 ~ 240
460 ~ 470 Approx. 180 ~ 230
471 ~ 600 Approx. 250 ~ 290
Therefore, total 630 ~ 760 applications are getting in the pool every 2 weeks
3. The recent draw around 450 in 2016 was [Draw #28: CRS 453, Feb. 24, 2016].
Therefore, I tried to calculate the number of applications from Feb 28 to Nov. 16 , which is 38 weeks.
(there were no draws below 470 from Feb 28)
Feb 24 ~ Nov 16 (38 weeks)
CRS applications
450 ~ 460 3800 ~ 4560
460 ~ 470 3420 ~ 4370
450 ~ 470 7220 ~ 8630
I think there are 7000 ~ 9000 applications between 450 and 470.
4. I also calculated when we can expect to the CRS goes down below 450.
Case #1: Applications in the pool: 7000
New applicaions: 700
ITA 2500
Draws FSW+FST+CEC PNP(25%) Total Applications after draws
1 7700 625 8325 5825
2 5825 625 6450 3950
3 3950 625 4575 2075
4 2075 625 2700 200
5 200 625 825 -1675
(I think EE PNP kicked in from mid-2015. So, I think there could be more PNP applications.
-> I put 25% for PNP in the calculation.)
Case #2: Applications in the pool: 9000
New applicaions: 700
ITA 2000
Draws FSW+FST+CEC PNP(25%) Total Applications after draws
1 9700 500 10200 8200
2 8200 500 8700 6700
3 6700 500 7200 5200
4 5200 500 5700 3700
5 3700 500 4200 2200
6 2200 500 2700 700
7 700 500 1200 -800
Therefore, I think CRS will be dropping down after 5~7 draws if draws happen every 2 weeks(ITA: 2000 ~ 2500).
(But, as you know, there will be CRS change from Nov 19. Therefore, this analysis can be somewhat different from the pool after Nov. 19. However, I think you guys can get some idea what will happen in the future)
All the best for you guys!!
I got lots of help from this forum. So, I wanted to help you guys as well. Hope this help you...
I tried to to calculate the current applications(CRS 450 ~ 470) in the pool from the Express Entry Year-End Report 2015.
I also tried to clarify how many applications are getting in the pool every two weeks.
Oops.. I cannot add images...
(please let me know if you know how to insert images...)I will try my best to explain...
1. LMIA % in 2015
ITA(total 31063)
pnp: 13% (ITA 4105)
FSW+FST+CEC (with LMIA): 47%(ITA 14532 )
FSW+FST+CEC (without LMIA): 40% (ITA 12425 )
-> Most ITAs with LMIA(47%) will be assigned to the applications without LMIA. Therefore, CRS will be dropped as all of us knows.
2. New applications above CRS 450 (in 2015)
I calculated 3 set of 2 adjacent draws to figure out how many applications are getting in the pool in 2 weeks.
Round Date CRS
17 Sept. 18 450
18 Oct 2 450
22 Dec 4 461
23 Dec 18 460
13 Jul 17 451
14 Aug 7 471
After calculating the applications without LMIA, I got these numbers.
CRS "New application in 2 weeks(without LMIA)"
450 ~ 460 Approx. 200 ~ 240
460 ~ 470 Approx. 180 ~ 230
471 ~ 600 Approx. 250 ~ 290
Therefore, total 630 ~ 760 applications are getting in the pool every 2 weeks
3. The recent draw around 450 in 2016 was [Draw #28: CRS 453, Feb. 24, 2016].
Therefore, I tried to calculate the number of applications from Feb 28 to Nov. 16 , which is 38 weeks.
(there were no draws below 470 from Feb 28)
Feb 24 ~ Nov 16 (38 weeks)
CRS applications
450 ~ 460 3800 ~ 4560
460 ~ 470 3420 ~ 4370
450 ~ 470 7220 ~ 8630
I think there are 7000 ~ 9000 applications between 450 and 470.
4. I also calculated when we can expect to the CRS goes down below 450.
Case #1: Applications in the pool: 7000
New applicaions: 700
ITA 2500
Draws FSW+FST+CEC PNP(25%) Total Applications after draws
1 7700 625 8325 5825
2 5825 625 6450 3950
3 3950 625 4575 2075
4 2075 625 2700 200
5 200 625 825 -1675
(I think EE PNP kicked in from mid-2015. So, I think there could be more PNP applications.
-> I put 25% for PNP in the calculation.)
Case #2: Applications in the pool: 9000
New applicaions: 700
ITA 2000
Draws FSW+FST+CEC PNP(25%) Total Applications after draws
1 9700 500 10200 8200
2 8200 500 8700 6700
3 6700 500 7200 5200
4 5200 500 5700 3700
5 3700 500 4200 2200
6 2200 500 2700 700
7 700 500 1200 -800
Therefore, I think CRS will be dropping down after 5~7 draws if draws happen every 2 weeks(ITA: 2000 ~ 2500).
(But, as you know, there will be CRS change from Nov 19. Therefore, this analysis can be somewhat different from the pool after Nov. 19. However, I think you guys can get some idea what will happen in the future)
All the best for you guys!!
