2013 applicant waiting too long, 2014 fast

[catchvb]

I start to feel scary, because any timeline posted here, will be brought to CIC as comparison when some people's application are being processed longer.

To be honest I do not think CIC even cares what people think . I don't think they feel answerable to anyone. Do you think they care /will care what is going on this forum.

We are here to get an idea what is going on as we do not get clear answers from CIC.

 

[BLT]

This is basic math :
In a cage, you see goats and chickens. There are 88 animal heads and 246 animal feet. How many chickens and goats in that cage?

This is not basic math :
How many goat or chicken will walk out from the cage at 8-9 am? If you see 1 goat walk out first at 8am, this doesn't mean goat walks out earlier than chicken, because there are still many inside the cage.

 

[BLT]

To be honest I do not think CIC even cares what people think or responsible. I don't think they feel answerable to anyone. Do you think they care or will care what is going on this forum.

We are here to get an idea what is going on as we do not get clear answers from CIC.

CIC will LOL at it. But when people use your post as a comparison instead of learning, you better don'T post it, right? To be frank, I won't post anything when I get a test invitation. The test is always the trigger point where others not yet invited being upset.

 

[catchvb]

CIC will LOL at it. But when people use your post as a comparison instead of learning, you better don'T post it, right? To be frank, I won't post anything when I get a test invitation. The test is always the trigger point where others not yet invited being upset.

Do as you feel BLT. You do not have timelines in your signature which does not help much to others. Sorry I jumped between you two and asked not to argue. Please carry on.

 

[AlexRox]

This is basic math :
In a cage, you see goats and chickens. There are 88 animal heads and 246 animal feet. How many chickens and goats in that cage?

This is not basic math :
How many goat or chicken will walk out from the cage at 8-9 am? If you see 1 goat walk out first at 8am, this doesn't mean goat walks out earlier than chicken, because there are still many inside the cage.

OK. I guess, in order to identify trends from a sample you can calculate time it takes to walk out for every chicken and goat(in the sample , for example this forum) and calculate the weighted average.

 

[brbr]

Do as you feel BLT. You do not have timelines in your signature which does not help much to others. Sorry I jumped between you two and asked not to argue. Please carry on.

lol I am done man, there is not point. Thank you for snapping me out of it.

 

[BLT]

OK. I guess, in order to identify trends from a sample you can calculate time it takes to walk out for every chicken and goat(in the sample , for example this forum) and calculate the weighted average.

This is what's going on : Some people only have data about 1 goat walk out at 8am, then start to claim that goat walks out earlier than chicken.

 

[AlexRox]

This is what's going on : Some people only have data about 1 goat walk out at 8am, then start to claim that goat walks out earlier than chicken.

Well, I don't think that's the case. You would find enough data to identify reasonably accurate trends.

 

[BLT]

Well, I don't think that's the case. You would find enough data to identify reasonably accurate trends.

Good point, enough data.
Here's the exact math calculation, there are 35 goats and 53 chickens inside that cage.
When you see 1 goat, means 1 out of 35 = about 3%. STILL THAT CANNOT DETERMINE.
Now CIC has over 300,000 of applications, how can you determine by taking out over 2 thousands of time line (NOT EVEN 1%)?
And another thing, so far that I know, there are only few hundreds of timelines here, but our friend claimed he had over 2 thousands.

 

[brbr]

Good point, enough data.
Here's the exact math calculation, there are 35 goats and 53 chickens inside that cage.
When you see 1 goat, means 1 out of 35 = about 3%. STILL THAT CANNOT DETERMINE.
Now CIC has over 300,000 of applications, how can you determine by taking out over 2 thousands of time line (NOT EVEN 1%)?
And another thing, so far that I know, there are only few hundreds of timelines here, but our friend claimed he had over 2 thousands.

*Facepalm*

This is what I said:

"And you might come back to me and say well based on the 2014 excel spreadsheet there is nowhere near 2,386 applications on there, fair enough. Well with 384 case entries on a 360,000 application population you can still infer the following accuracy: Same confidence level of 95% but within a +/- 5% margin of error instead the 2% margin you would get with the 2,386 applications."

So please stop putting words in my mouth and show some respect, thank you.

 

[catchvb]

I read the quote somewhere ..

Don't argue with an idiot coz first he/she will bring you at his/her level and then beat you with his/her experience.

 

[BLT]

*Facepalm*

This is what I said:

"And you might come back to me and say well based on the 2014 excel spreadsheet there is nowhere near 2,386 applications on there, fair enough. Well with 384 case entries on a 360,000 application population you can still infer the following accuracy: Same confidence level of 95% but within a +/- 5% margin of error instead the 2% margin you would get with the 2,386 applications."

So please stop putting words in my mouth and show some respect, thank you.

You are using a wrong formula to calculate things. It's like trying to cut a meat with a gun, it is stronger than knife, but it's a wrong tool. You cannot use mathematics to determine processing speed.
In this case, there is NO WAY you can compare between applications. Election polling only has 2 factors : Obama or Romney. There is no IF. In citizenship application, I give you example : A guy applied in 2011 and until 2014 hasn't gotten any test invitation, nothing. If he never tells you the circumstance, you will think that he is being tortured. Talk and talk and talk, in the end, he was PR under refugee, and went back to his home country while refugee status. According to Canada's law, as a refugee, you will kiss goodbye your status if you can go back to your country. This is complicated, and cannot be compared to other's straight forward application.
The some people claimed they graduated from a university in Asia with PHD blah blah blah (certificate enclosed) when applying PR. After they arrived, asking welfare since day 1. Of course this will take longer. CIC has their own standard that they won't tell us. I'm not saying that CIC is my god, but to say that others are fast and I'm slow is wrong. It's more that others are more straight forward and less complicated, that's why being processed faster.

 

[BLT]

I read the quote somewhere ..

Don't argue with an idiot coz first he/she will bring you at his/her level and then beat you with his/her experience.

Actually arguing will make you smarter, but positive argue, not being rude or emotional argument.
I read a quote somewhere : Idiots like to judge others as idiot.

 

[sazamizi]

I'm thinking maybe (and hopefully) CIC has decided to finalize the before 2013 applications left-over in the meantime it is processing the new applications (2014) with (perhaps) new method!
What do you think guys? I heard around some of old applications who had received RQ , have been finalized.

 

[on-hold]

brbr is just playing around -- he obviously knows something about stats, which means that he knows that what he is doing only applies if the sample size is random. There's no reason to think that the posts of citizenship applicants on this forum are selected randomly from the entire natural pool of citizenship applications -- it's highly likely that people who post here have some non-standard issue that they need to check on. Without a random selection, the computations he's performing are meaningless. Statisticians care more about sampling than anything else, it is the foundation of the discipline: but he's aware of that, just not bringing it up.