2013 applicant waiting too long, 2014 fast

[BLT]

Mark -- I don't think some people here mean CIC has to hold all new applications till the old ones have been finalized. The statement "each application is different" is not a really strong reasoning. Over years years we have seen CIC processes similar cases in a different way. All I want to say, CIC usually updates its internal instructions but because of whatever reason , they don't apply to all applications. That's why you see 2014 applicants are being called faster to write their test. I think it could be some sort of discrimination.
Hope it makes sense.

Similar cases??? How can you know that my application and his-her application are similar? You can't make judgement based on few posts here. Like I said, there are over 360,000 applications in CIC, and there are only few hundreds here.
I give you a very simple example of something that will make an application being processed longer.
A has a certificate from English test in Canada to proof his English skill.
B has a diploma from a school in Asia, stating that all the courses were in English.
The CIC officer who is working on the case, can decide right away that A is sufficient, but for B, the officer has to ask for a green light from his supervisor. Now the supervisor has tons of applications on his table waiting for green light, then B has to fall into the queue.
This is a very simple example. Some people have police record being questioned, CBSA record different with absence claim in the application, etc. There is no way you can find out every details from others' application.

 

[sazamizi]

Hi BLT,

As you know, not all applicants come to this blog and post their timelines. In addition, even I don't know people whom I talk with are men or women and come from what background.
I believe most of us have some colleagues and friends around us who are applying for citizenship. We talk to them we know the details of our applications. So please don't jump into the conclusion very fast. When I say some people with similar cases , I'm not talking about people in here, I talk about my friends that I meet them and talk to them.
It's almost 9 years I'm directly dealing with CIC and over time I have realized they treat the same cases by different ways. For Visa stuff, immigration , sponsorship and citizenship. You shouldn't blindly support and defend this sick immigration system. The immigration system and CIC on top it is the worst governmental system Canada and I believe so many people know that.

Regards,
S.

Similar cases??? How can you know that my application and his-her application are similar? You can't make judgement based on few posts here. Like I said, there are over 360,000 applications in CIC, and there are only few hundreds here.
I give you a very simple example of something that will make an application being processed longer.
A has a certificate from English test in Canada to proof his English skill.
B has a diploma from a school in Asia, stating that all the courses were in English.
The CIC officer who is working on the case, can decide right away that A is sufficient, but for B, the officer has to ask for a green light from his supervisor. Now the supervisor has tons of applications on his table waiting for green light, then B has to fall into the queue.
This is a very simple example. Some people have police record being questioned, CBSA record different with absence claim in the application, etc. There is no way you can find out every details from others' application.

 

[catchvb]

My friends applied in March-2014 and got citizenship text done in August end. Looks like Jan-Apr 2014 have been pretty fast.
But I applied in June and have not even received any kind of communication. So I do not know what is the trend. Confused.

 

[brbr]

Similar cases??? How can you know that my application and his-her application are similar? You can't make judgement based on few posts here. Like I said, there are over 360,000 applications in CIC, and there are only few hundreds here.
I give you a very simple example of something that will make an application being processed longer.
A has a certificate from English test in Canada to proof his English skill.
B has a diploma from a school in Asia, stating that all the courses were in English.
The CIC officer who is working on the case, can decide right away that A is sufficient, but for B, the officer has to ask for a green light from his supervisor. Now the supervisor has tons of applications on his table waiting for green light, then B has to fall into the queue.
This is a very simple example. Some people have police record being questioned, CBSA record different with absence claim in the application, etc. There is no way you can find out every details from others' application.

BLT,

Statistics sir, I assume it's not your forte. If you have a population size of 360,000 CIC applications, and you have on this forum a sample size of precisely 2,386 applications (and I would fancy that there is more than that) then you can statistically infer with a 95% confidence level and with a 2% margin of error, the timelines for the whole population size. Just as a reminder, political polls in the united states, which is a country composed of 330 million people, are usually conducted by sampling a 1,000 constituents to a margin error of +/-3%. So your adamant point about having a small sample on this forum and it being not representative is mathematically inaccurate.

And you might come back to me and say well based on the 2014 excel spreadsheet there is nowhere near 2,386 applications on there, fair enough. Well with 384 case entries on a 360,000 application population you can still infer the following accuracy: Same confidence level of 95% but within a +/- 5% margin of error instead the 2% margin you would get with the 2,386 applications.

 

[BLT]

BLT,

Statistics sir, I assume it's not your forte. If you have a population size of 360,000 CIC applications, and you have on this forum a sample size of precisely 2,386 applications (and I would fancy that there is more than that) then you can statistically infer with a 95% confidence level and with a 2% margin of error, the timelines for the whole population size. Just as a reminder, political polls in the united states, which is a country composed of 330 million people, are usually conducted by sampling a 1,000 constituents to a margin error of +/-3%. So your adamant point about having a small sample on this forum and it being not representative is mathematically inaccurate.

And you might come back to me and say well based on the 2014 excel spreadsheet there is nowhere near 2,386 applications on there, fair enough. Well with 384 case entries on a 360,000 application population you can still infer the following accuracy: Same confidence level of 95% but within a +/- 5% margin of error instead the 2% margin you would get with the 2,386 applications.

- Where is the 2,386 coming from? Why not 2,485 or 3,265?
- Consider the 2,386 from your pocket is true, still it is only less than 1% from 360,000. To make a comparison, you need at least 20% of data with details. That's why when some people filed a case against CIC, lawyers didn't use numbers of posts from this thread (LOL) but they used CIC's own posted processing time.
- What ever the number you have here, it's totally NOT accurate. Because people only post their timeline, not the details of their application. Like our friend says, you don't even know if that is a woman or a man.

 

[catchvb]

Why are we arguing about stats Just relax.

Only CIC knows their process.Worst part is that it is not open process.

 

[brbr]

- Where is the 2,386 coming from? Why not 2,485 or 3,265?
- Consider the 2,386 from your pocket is true, still it is only less than 1% from 360,000. To make a comparison, you need at least 20% of data with details. That's why when some people filed a case against CIC, lawyers didn't use numbers of posts from this thread (LOL) but they used CIC's own posted processing time.
- What ever the number you have here, it's totally NOT accurate. Because people only post their timeline, not the details of their application. Like our friend says, you don't even know if that is a woman or a man.

lol no it is NOT from my pocket, thank you for doing thorough research before attacking the validity of the numbers I had provided. It's really not that difficult to understand math and/or statistics, but here is a quick calculator which might help you see how those numbers came about.

https://www.checkmarket.com/market-research-resources/sample-size-calculator/

And I am not saying it is accurate for every case, it obviously isn't, that's the whole point. However we can INFER (inˈfər/ verb. deduce or conclude (information) from evidence and reasoning rather than from explicit statements) with a certain level of probability or confidence how an x, y or z percent of applications will play out based on a certain sample size. Ironically, the fact that an application might be submitted by a man or a woman is irrelevant to what we are discussing.

"To make a comparison, you need at least 20% of data with details" <--- this is obviously right out of your pocket and simply shows that you have no idea what I am talking about, so please don't debate before you have a grasp of basic statistical concepts.

 

[BLT]

Hi BLT,

As you know, not all applicants come to this blog and post their timelines. In addition, even I don't know people whom I talk with are men or women and come from what background.
I believe most of us have some colleagues and friends around us who are applying for citizenship. We talk to them we know the details of our applications. So please don't jump into the conclusion very fast. When I say some people with similar cases , I'm not talking about people in here, I talk about my friends that I meet them and talk to them.
It's almost 9 years I'm directly dealing with CIC and over time I have realized they treat the same cases by different ways. For Visa stuff, immigration , sponsorship and citizenship. You shouldn't blindly support and defend this sick immigration system. The immigration system and CIC on top it is the worst governmental system Canada and I believe so many people know that.

Regards,
S.

My friend, I also have some friends applied in 2013, already gotten their passport. Same if you see some 2013's postings here, many people already graduated. If you have been applying since 2013 and not moving, I think there is something heavy in your car, so it just won't accelerate.
I'm also in process now, in the same boat with you. I also hope that my application being processed as fast as possible, the best if tomorrow I can get my oath. But the way to compare applications without specific details, is a wrong move. You feel upset when you see 2014s got test, but you need to know that there are also many 2012s not yet got test, why don't you compare to 2012s? Every application is unique on it's own.
Put it this way : If you can manage to lobby the minister about your comparison, the result is still your application won't be faster, but all the 2014's applications will slowed down. Why I say this? Because your claim that 2013 is being treated slow while 2014 is fast, is wrong. Many 2013's applications have gotten their oath. Basically you want all 2014 to be stopped processing until the 2013 being cleared out, even those with problems and questions.

 

[BLT]

lol no it is NOT from my pocket, thank you for doing thorough research before attacking the validity of the numbers I had provided. It's really not that difficult to understand math and/or statistics, but here is a quick calculator which might help you see how those numbers came about.

https://www.checkmarket.com/market-research-resources/sample-size-calculator/

And I am not saying it is accurate for every case, it obviously isn't, that's the whole point. However we can INFER (inˈfər/ verb. deduce or conclude (information) from evidence and reasoning rather than from explicit statements) with a certain level of probability or confidence how an x, y or z percent of applicants' applications will play out based on a certain sample size. Ironically, the fact that an application might be submitted by a man or a woman is irrelevant to what we are discussing.

"To make a comparison, you need at least 20% of data with details" <--- this is obviously right out of your pocket and simply shows that you have no idea what I am talking about, so please don't debate before you have a grasp of basic statistical concepts.

Now you take out another internet thread from your drawer and ask people to use it as a standard. See, this is not election polling which the option is only either Obama or Romney. This is more complicated. You can't use less than 1% to judge over 99%. If you have 20% out of the total 360,000 backlog, I will start to trust you. But still CIC will LOL at you.
That's why when lawyers filed Mandamus, they didn't use this forum, let alone your website. They used CIC's posted processing time as comparison.

 

[brbr]

Now you take out another internet thread from your drawer and ask people to use it as a standard. See, this is not election polling which the option is only either Obama or Romney. This is more complicated. You can't use less than 1% to judge over 99%. If you have 20% out of the total 360,000 backlog, I will start to trust you. But still CIC will LOL at you.
That's why when lawyers filed Mandamus, they didn't use this forum, let alone your website. They used CIC's posted processing time as comparison.

Buddy, this is not some voodoo magic I am talking to you about or this specific link I sent per say, it is BASIC math. Go open a grade 12 statistics book, do the math manually on a population size of 360,000 applications and then we can talk. cheers.

 

[BLT]

Buddy, this is not some voodoo magic I am talking to you about or this specific link I sent per say, it is BASIC math. Go open a grade 12 statistics book, do the math manually on a population size of 360,000 applications and then we can talk. cheers.

It's not about math. Your view is like election polling or product survey. This is different. There are different conditions in everybody's application.

 

[catchvb]

Buddy, this is not some voodoo magic I am talking to you about or this specific link I sent per say, it is BASIC math. Go open a grade 12 statistics book, do the math manually on a population size of 360,000 applications and then we can talk. cheers.

Guys you are arguing over some silly stuff. BRBR lets assume you are stat guru and BLT is not. But I am sure there are 100 things which is not your forte. Stop arguing over it.

 

[brbr]

Guys you are arguing over some silly stuff. BRBR lets assume you are stat guru and BLT is not. But I am sure there are 100 things which is not your forte. Stop arguing over it.

Fair enough, and I will. I believe I made my point, thank you.

 

[BLT]

Guys you are arguing over some silly stuff. BRBR lets assume you are stat guru and BLT is not. But I am sure there are 100 things which is not your forte. Stop arguing over it.

I start to feel scary, because any timeline posted here, will be brought to CIC as comparison when some people's application are being processed longer.

 

[AlexRox]

It's not about math. Your view is like election polling or product survey. This is different. There are different conditions in everybody's application.

Although every application are different, the trends can be clearly identified.