18th September Draw before Elections

[Asivad Anac]

Hi friends, based on the mid year EE Report, lets have some statistics do the talking instead of personal views - be it pessimistic or optimistic:

1) There were 8,770 EE Profiles between 400-449 (as on July 6, 2015)
2) The pool is growing by about 1,500/week
3) No draws from 400-449 range till yet, 12 Weeks have almost passed so 400-449 range should have grown by 18,000 (12 x 1500) since July 6th. So a rough estimate for EE Profiles within 400-449 range would now become 26,770 profiles (8770 + 18000)
4) Lets factor in OOPNP nominations since its applicable for CRS 400+. Assuming entire quota of 5,200 profiles got nominated, their EE Profiles gets deactivated, so EE Profiles within 400-449 range would now reduce to 21,570 profiles (26770 - 5200).
5) CIC conducts 1500 profiles/draw (as of now). So it would take another 14 draws (21570/1500) from now onwards to breach the level of 400 CRS.
6) A very rough timeline to breach 400 CRS would be more 7 months (assuming 2 draws/month).
7) One needs to understand that as the scores falls, profiles increase exponentially. So for example, if there are 50 profiles at CRS 440, then there maybe 75 profiles at CRS 425 and 100 profiles at CRS 410.
8 ) One also needs to factor in other PNP nominations which would reduce the profiles above to some extent.
9) Needless to say, these are real rough estimates based on past data and trends!

Just my 2 cents. If any mistake, feel free to correct/add factual CIC data to make it more accurate.

If the entire pool grows by 1500/week, that number would be distributed over the entire score range instead of just adding up in the 400-449 range.

 

[vvarma]

Hi friends, based on the mid year EE Report, lets have some statistics do the talking instead of personal views - be it pessimistic or optimistic:

1) There were 8,770 EE Profiles between 400-449 (as on July 6, 2015)
2) The pool is growing by about 1,500/week distributed across all CRS bands exponentially. For the sake of our calculation lets assume that out of this 1,500 profiles, band 400-449 gets 500 profiles/week.
3) No draws from 400-449 range till yet, 12 Weeks have almost passed so 400-449 range should have grown by 6,000 (12 x 500) since July 6th. So a rough estimate for EE Profiles within 400-449 range would now become 14,770 profiles (8770 + 6000)
4) Lets factor in OOPNP nominations since its applicable for CRS 400+. Assuming entire quota of 5,200 profiles got nominated, their EE Profiles gets deactivated, so EE Profiles within 400-449 range would now reduce to 9,570 profiles (14770 - 5200).
5) CIC conducts 1500 profiles/draw (as of now). So if the profiles were to freeze, it should take another 6 draws (9570/1500) from now onwards to breach the level of 400 CRS. However, the flow of profiles would be continous and would keep adding during those 6 draws as well. So lets add 6000 additional profiles to compensate for those 6 draws covering 12 weeks (12 weeks x 500 profiles). So after future adjustment, there are 15570 profiles in our band. So it will take another 10 draws (9570/1500) from now onwards to breach the level of 400 CRS.
6) A very rough timeline to breach 400 CRS would be more 5 months (assuming 2 draws/month).
7) One needs to understand that as the scores falls, profiles increase exponentially. So for example, if there are 50 profiles at CRS 440, then there maybe 75 profiles at CRS 425 and 100 profiles at CRS 410.
8 ) One also needs to factor in other PNP nominations which would reduce the profiles above to some extent.
9) Needless to say, these are real rough estimates based on past data and trends!

Just my 2 cents. If any mistake, feel free to correct/add factual CIC data to make it more accurate.

 

[vvarma]

Hi Asivad - i had deleted my earlier post since i immediately realized the distribution and also the lack of future adjustment. Seems you were too quick! LOL.

In any case I have reposted with some corrections.....