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Ray of hope - FSW - 1

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Igethope

Igethope

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Sep 17, 2019
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The new draw brings the total number of ITAs issued in 2020 to 87,350, i wonder if they can still do 3/4 more draws with 4500 ITA this year again ? Can they really exceed 100k ITA ?
 
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Carmen01

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Oct 13, 2020
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Igethope said:
The new draw brings the total number of ITAs issued in 2020 to 87,350, i wonder if they can still do 3/4 more draws with 4500 ITA this year again ? Can they really exceed 100k ITA ?
Click to expand...
But ITAs don’t equate PPRs and they don’t have that.
 
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Scalphunter

Star Member
Jun 20, 2020
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Igethope said:
The new draw brings the total number of ITAs issued in 2020 to 87,350, i wonder if they can still do 3/4 more draws with 4500 ITA this year again ? Can they really exceed 100k ITA ?
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Weren't they saying that they have a mandate of 4.4% bilingual candidates? I guess it depends on how close this latest draw got them to it.

Carmen01 said:
But ITAs don’t equate PPRs and they don’t have that.
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Good point. If they're strictly counting PPRs, then the number of actual immigrants is lower than the invites and the chart on the draw shows invites.
 
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Scalphunter

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Jun 20, 2020
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Himanshu6444 said:
Was that a mandate? It was just a 2019 stat I guess.
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I remember reading it as a mandate. If it wasn't required I don't think they would've bothered adding the French score boost.

Also, the last time the score was at 478, the progression was as follows:
Jul 8 - 476
Aug 5 - 476
Sep 2 - 475
Sep 16 - 472
Sep 30 - 471
Oct 14 - 471

So consistent FSW draws from Sep 2nd to Oct 14th brought the score down quite a bit. This would've been lower but in July and August, they were alternating between FSW and CEC. If they do 5 or 6 FSW draws, the score should come down to 470 or below.
 
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Himanshu6444

Star Member
Nov 4, 2020
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Scalphunter said:
I remember reading it as a mandate. If it wasn't required I don't think they would've bothered adding the French score boost.

Also, the last time the score was at 478, the progression was as follows:
Jul 8 - 476
Aug 5 - 476
Sep 2 - 475
Sep 16 - 472
Sep 30 - 471
Oct 14 - 471

So consistent FSW draws from Sep 2nd to Oct 14th brought the score down quite a bit. This would've been lower but in July and August, they were alternating between FSW and CEC. If they do 5 or 6 FSW draws, the score should come down to 470 or below.
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Can't really rely on this past trend as dynamics have changed now. Added French scores, people competing at a high level to improve scores, more people joining in on average.
One thing everyone is neglecting is that scores will go higher because of International studetns in Canada.
 
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Scalphunter

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Jun 20, 2020
128
38
Himanshu6444 said:
Can't really rely on this past trend as dynamics have changed now. Added French scores, people competing at a high level to improve scores, more people joining in on average.
One thing everyone is neglecting is that scores will go higher because of International studetns in Canada.
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Sure, but Canada is also aiming to get 1.2 million immigrants over the next 3 years, which is around 400,000 a year. That's around 15,000 invites each draw if they want to hit that target.
 
Igethope

Igethope

Hero Member
Sep 17, 2019
376
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Scalphunter said:
Sure, but Canada is also aiming to get 1.2 million immigrants over the next 3 years, which is around 400,000 a year. That's around 15,000 invites each draw if they want to hit that target.
Click to expand...
There are different pathways

express entry is just 100k out that 400k. Check out the breakdown.
 
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axmac

Star Member
Nov 5, 2020
102
163
Scalphunter said:
I don't think they pick the ideal score or date. They know they want 4500 in the draw so the algorithm picks the 4500 highest scoring profile and the score of the last profile becomes the cutoff. So anyone with a score higher than last profile gets picked. I'm not sure how the tie breaker is calculated.

If they actually pick the cut off score, then everyone's at the mercy of the picker's whim.
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Right, I agree with you. But as I understand it, with each lower score, there would be a lot more people stuck in the pool (with that score) for months. So if it goes to say a 470, the date would automatically go backwards from October 26th, because an October 26th cut-off would activate tens of thousands of 470 candidates from months before. So realistically, the lower the score, the lower the chances of getting through a tie-breaker. Let's hope it gets to 469, man!
 
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