Ray of Hope - 136th Draw

[ash_diaz]

guys, IF the B2B draw happens on Jan 29th the next draw will take place on Feb 12th right ? supposedly this happens, what do y'all predict as the cut off of Feb 12th draw ? will it drop some more or increase ? I am hoping that it stays below 471 :'(

 

[Tanvirk]

I don't know why a lot of people are speculating a b2b draw on 29 Jan. Is there any special occasion in Feb that triggers this b2b draw?

 

[jrossi]

I don't know why a lot of people are speculating a b2b draw on 29 Jan. Is there any special occasion in Feb that triggers this b2b draw?

B2B happened in the last January of 2019, 2017 and 2016.

 

[asksharelearn]

INTERNAL TRACKER LIZELLEW

Updated (January 24th 2020 UCT 12h50)


475+ (Total: 1) – kileengao: 479 |

470+ (Total: 7) – lightspeed97: 474 | js91: 471 | slayyy: 471 | abbieh: 471 | Usagi17: 470 | Zee90999: 470 | gobsaini: 470 |

465+ (Total: 15) – jrossi: 469 | seadrag0n: 469 | yORha_anDrOId: 468 | quilleroarg: 468 | remedy3434: 468 | Tranvirk: 468 | Moe.chattha: 467 | sri8707: 467 | Cookie13: 467 | m.q.z90: 467 | Lazybug: 467 | yeshi209: 467 | DrSeaun: 467 | LizelleW: 466 | 777Rubinadhaliwal: 465 |

460+ (Total: 4) – terez1: 462 | bambisp: 461 | Richy1989john | Jasiko: 460 |

455+ (Total: 3) – chouku: 459 | ozzyess: 456 | leblord: 455 |

450+ (Total: 2) – kyoussef: 456 | Apoorva_1987: 452 |

400+ (Total: 1) – rajapanesar: 417 |



If you would like to be added to the tracker, please reply with your score.

Hi,
I am new to this forum. This is my first post.
I have recently created my EE profile too.
Please add me at 456.
And wish me luck people. Because only luck seems to matter now that the scores are soaring high. And I wish all the people hoping for an ITA this year the best.!

 

[asksharelearn]

Looking at even this local tracker is giving me a sense that we could extrapolate the distribution to the real pool and say that the scores of 465 to 469 are the most populated in the pool. Does anyone agree with me?

 

[zee90999]

Looking at even this local tracker is giving me a sense that we could extrapolate the distribution to the real pool and say that the scores of 465 to 469 are the most populated in the pool. Does anyone agree with me?

I second that

 

[Lazybug]

Looking at even this local tracker is giving me a sense that we could extrapolate the distribution to the real pool and say that the scores of 465 to 469 are the most populated in the pool. Does anyone agree with me?

Yea looks like but I think there are many more people below 460 in reality. Ofcourse, noone can be sure of that distribution.

 

[asksharelearn]

Yea looks like but I think there are many more people below 460 in reality. Ofcourse, noone can be sure of that distribution.

That is true, no one can be sure.

 

[jrossi]

Looking at even this local tracker is giving me a sense that we could extrapolate the distribution to the real pool and say that the scores of 465 to 469 are the most populated in the pool. Does anyone agree with me?

I disagree. If you look at the official data distribution of scores, the 400-450 range has more than 2x the amount of people in the 451-600 range. The logic is pretty straightforward: the lower the score, easier it is to get it.
So, if I had to make a bet, I would say that every 5 points reduces the amount of people in the pool by half.

The reason why we only see 465+ people participating in these internal trackers is: people with 450 points know they don't stand a chance in the following draws, so they usually don't even care about participating in a "Ray of Hope" thread. For now, there's no Hope for them. Maybe around April-May.

 

[asksharelearn]

I disagree. If you look at the official data distribution of scores, the 400-450 range has more than 2x the amount of people in the 451-600 range. The logic is pretty straightforward: the lower the score, easier it is to get it.
So, if I had to make a bet, I would say that every 5 points reduces the amount of people in the pool by half.

The reason why we only see 465+ people participating in these internal trackers is: people with 450 points know they don't stand a chance in the following draws, so they usually don't even care about participating in a "Ray of Hope" thread. For now, there's no Hope for them. Maybe around April-May.

That is true and obvious. Scores above 450 are just about 20k people while only 400 to 450 are around 41k according to the latest distribution

I did not mention it in that post because I did not want to sound discouraging to scores below 450, but my intention was to compare only above 450 pool.

Also thank you. You just threw another ray of hope on me by saying that people of 450's stand a chance in april or may. I am one of them standing at 456 .
Nice to hear encouraging things

 

[Tanvirk]

Guys, is there any chance for score to drop down to 468 in a couple of draws?

 

[Wrath]

Guys, is there any chance for score to drop down to 468 in a couple of draws?

Very hard to say. This 468 is a such a teasing score. It looks like ppl with 468 are about to picked up but not happening. Just in case if there's a draw next week chances are bright for 468 if not then it's very tough.

 

[Tanvirk]

Very hard to say. This 468 is a such a teasing score. It looks like ppl with 468 are about to picked up but not happening. Just in case if there's a draw next week chances are bright for 468 if not then it's very tough.

I am contemplating on requesting for an EOR in speaking module as it is the only module where I lack in clb10. How long will it take in case of IDP ? If I succeed, I would get 471 which is relatively a safe score. Meanwhile, I have received an NOI from Ontario also , for which I have 35 days remaining. What should I do?

 

[zee90999]

I am contemplating on requesting for an EOR in speaking module as it is the only module where I lack in clb10. How long will it take in case of IDP ? If I succeed, I would get 471 which is relatively a safe score. Meanwhile, I have received an NOI from Ontario also , for which I have 35 days remaining. What should I do?

I was considering the same, however the problem with that is, the IELTS result gets nullified until the EOR is out, and I can not afford to take that risk. But I am confident that my writing band can potentially move to 8 or 7.5 from a 7 in the worst case if I choose to do that. Currently sitting at 470 and this can boost the score to 473. Can someone clarify on this one? Thanks.

 

[Tanvirk]

I was considering the same, however the problem with that is, the IELTS result gets nullified until the EOR is out, and I can not afford to take that risk. But I am confident that my writing band can potentially move to 8 or 7.5 from a 7 in the worst case if I choose to do that. Currently sitting at 470 and this can boost the score to 473. Can someone clarify on this one? Thanks.

Score will definitely drop to 469-470 in next 2 draws. But this 468 is very tricky.