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Ray of Hope - 135th Draw

X

XSY_ghostlike

Star Member
Nov 2, 2019
55
33
Vazi said:
Currently at 465 and in a dilemma. I have a booking for IELTS next week. Should i take the test or wait in the hope of B2B draw reducing the score below 465 by the end of Jan 20?
Suggestions please.

Regards.
Click to expand...
Please push IELTS to the max.
1. The chance of B2B is low. (30%?)
2. Even B2B will not lower the score to 465.

Note:
by Jan 22,
465-469 range have been accumulating in the pool for 110+ days since Oct 2. (safe to say 1000 person per score)
460-473 range have been accumulating in the pool for 30+ days since Dec 19.

Just do some simple calculation, you will see even if we have TWO draws on Jan 22 ON THE SAME DAY, it cannot lower cutline to 465.

So, what a B2B gonna do even if it happens?
 
G

garryrandhawa

Star Member
Jan 12, 2020
106
8
Ramsha Bukhari said:
So, between the last two draws, 5910 new people joined the pool having score above 451.Out of these, 567 were 600 +, hence, 5910-567=5343 were between 451-600.
Out of 3400 ITA's issued, (3400-567)=2833 were the people above 473.
2833/19days = 149 people per day joined the pool.
If we assume normal distribution between the scores 473-(481-600) , we had around 17 people added per score per day.
If the same trend continues, and lets suppose the number of pnp's increases to 900(highly unlikely).
3400-900= 2500
17people*14days = 238 people per score
also, because of the tie-breaker rule, we still have around 187 people on 473
so the next draw cut-off will be 471-472
-900 (601-1200)
-238 (of 481-600 newly added score)
-238 (of 480 newly added score)
-238 (of 479 newly added score)
-238 (of 478 newly added score)
-238 (of 477 newly added score)
-238 (of 476 newly added score)
-238 (of 475 newly added score)
-238 (of 474 newly added score)
-238+187 (of 473 newly added score)
-238 (of 472 newly added score)
-238 (of 471 newly added score)
-238 (of 470 newly added score)

In case of lesser pnp's, which is quite expected, can be as lower as 470.

Please feel free to correct me.
Click to expand...
Hi I am at 468, should I expect an ITA if my profile is in the express entry pool in march 2020, kindly share yours thoughts and experience, thanks in advance
 
V

Vazi

Star Member
Nov 6, 2019
73
22
Category........
FSW
Visa Office......
London
NOC Code......
1212
AOR Received.
18-03-2020
Med's Done....
07-05-2020
XSY_ghostlike said:
Please push IELTS to the max.
1. The chance of B2B is low. (30%?)
2. Even B2B will not lower the score to 465.

Note:
by Jan 22,
465-469 range have been accumulating in the pool for 110+ days since Oct 2. (safe to say 1000 person per score)
460-473 range have been accumulating in the pool for 30+ days since Dec 19.

Just do some simple calculation, you will see even if we have TWO draws on Jan 22 ON THE SAME DAY, it cannot lower cutline to 465.

So, what a B2B gonna do even if it happens?
Click to expand...
You are right. Maxing out IELTS is the only way left for me to get into 470ish. I believe one of the reason why the score is not coming down is because a lot of people in the 460s have retaken ielts to push their scores further into 470s.
 
T

T Krishna

Newbie
Dec 27, 2019
8
0
So is there no hope for a cutoff below 460.? does anybody still have hopes in the 450's at all?

How high can the score go this year? any guesses as to what it might reach?
 
R

Ramsha Bukhari

Star Member
Sep 23, 2019
174
66
garryrandhawa said:
Hi I am at 468, should I expect an ITA if my profile is in the express entry pool in march 2020, kindly share yours thoughts and experience, thanks in advance
Click to expand...
I think the only chance is a B2B and even that is slim.Try something to improve your marks.Try improving IELTS.OTherwise PnP is a hope.
 
zee90999

zee90999

Hero Member
Dec 24, 2019
301
203
Vazi said:
Currently at 465 and in a dilemma. I have a booking for IELTS next week. Should i take the test or wait in the hope of B2B draw reducing the score below 465 by the end of Jan 20?
Suggestions please.

Regards.
Click to expand...
There’s no harm in taking the test.
 
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G

garryrandhawa

Star Member
Jan 12, 2020
106
8
Ramsha Bukhari said:
so you know you can be in high 470's if you improve IELTS.Cmon do it already.Its just one test between you and Canada.
Click to expand...
I have written it thrice already and for some reason my writing score doesnt improve, I was already thankful to have scored a 7 this time, now making it a clb 9. And I agree with you, I was still expecting this to work somehow
 
R

Ramsha Bukhari

Star Member
Sep 23, 2019
174
66
garryrandhawa said:
I have written it thrice already and for some reason my writing score doesnt improve, I was already thankful to have scored a 7 this time, now making it a clb 9. And I agree with you, I was still expecting this to work somehow
Click to expand...
CLB level is decided for each module seperately.
Listening 8.5
Reading 8
Speaking & writing 7.5

I understand writing is very subjective but go for rest f the modules atleast.This is the easiest and the quickest way.Even if you sit next week you will have your ITA on Feb 5.I wish you all the best.
 
G

garryrandhawa

Star Member
Jan 12, 2020
106
8
XSY_ghostlike said:
The difference between 468 and 471 is night and day.
At least get CLB 10 in reading and listening.
Click to expand...
The only part is writing, reading and listening is already
Ramsha Bukhari said:
CLB level is decided for each module seperately.
Listening 8.5
Reading 8
Speaking & writing 7.5

I understand writing is very subjective but go for rest f the modules atleast.This is the easiest and the quickest way.Even if you sit next week you will have your ITA on Feb 5.I wish you all the best.
Click to expand...
l:8.5, R:8.5, S:7.5, W:7

Thanks for the guidance and inputs anyway:)
 
A

Athira133

Full Member
Jan 24, 2019
35
1
Am at 466, but haven't received ECA yet.Wes status shows "received new package" after the secondary verification.It would definitely cross Feb by the time ECA is done & wondering where the scores would be hovering by then.
Is it sure that the CRS will shoot after mid Feb?
 
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