Ray of Hope - 126th Draw

[indpnv]

using advanced metrics and analysis using AI/ML algorithms i can predict that crs wont fall below 460.

Out of curiosity, What ML algorithms are did you use? Assuming that you went with Supervised learning as we are looking at a prediction problem rather than a classification one, Wondering what your variables were.

Edit: Also, could you share the data set as well? Am just curious about it as I work on these stuff in my job.

 

[CanucksRajiv]

Looking at the trends I believe cutoff in foreseeable future to remain upwards 455+

Following are the reasons:

1. At present there are more than half a million international students. Canada saw biggest increase in student population post trump era which is around 2017 and most of them would have graduated in 2019 and would start applying for PR soon. They have advantage in age, canadian degree, Canadian experience and IELTS and the numbers are bound to increase every passing months. Most of them would have scored at least 460+ or even higher

2. H1B professionals working in USA. Post trump era they are dealing with uncertain future and now they are increasingly looking at Canada as their future. Canada has good tech companies and even many USA companies are moving so this put them in win win situation.

3. Professionals in populous countries like India, Nigeria and others are increasingly looking at Canada. Earlier how easy Canadian immigration was not known to many people and now the secret is out. Everyone is trying to get in.

4. International students in US, Australia and U.K. even they are looking at Canada due to uncertainties.

5. Canada has huge population of PR holders and now their brothers, sisters are claiming sibling points and I expect this number to grow even further in future. These people have immediate 15 points advantage over others.

The only way to reduce the cutoff is back to back draws. One week gap may bring cutoff to early 450s but that would be one off situation. I think everyone in pool should work hard and try to improve the score or try for PNPs. Let me know your thoughts.

 

[infectious]

Do you guys think the score will come down to 446 by April 2020? I have maxed out my options to increase my CRS and will lose points in April. Anxiously waiting for increase in no. of draws or ITAs or both.

Guys I was running some analysis of the past data and came through 2 to 3 instances where scores shot up out of nowhere and then came back to normal.

One of that instance is the draw of October 3rd 2018 where score went up 4 points to close at 445 from a previous 441 even after doing a bi-weekly draw.

Then comes the interesting part - the next draw was conducted on October 15th instead of October 17th (2 days earlier) which was a Monday and then score again went down 5 points to 440 in that draw.

Before this draw, they had already conducted a b2b draw on June 25th which got the score down to 442 from a previous 3 weeks FST gap infested score of 451. From there on, the score remained in the early 440s up till November 14th and that is another interesting part.

On November 14th, score again shot up 7 points to 449 from a previous draw's score of 442 and there was no considerable gap, just 2 days behind schedule (Previous draw was a Monday October 29th and this one was on schedule i.e. Wednesday so a 2 days gap)

After this draw, they conducted a normal bi-weekly draw on November 28th which got the score down 4 points to 445 again which remained the same up till the next draw and then they did a b2b draw again on December 19th which brought the score down 6 points to 439

So guys, I believe the scores will come down again at least 4 to 5 points in the next draw to 458 to 459 and will hover around that mark until another b2b draw which might be coming in November. Yesterday's draw was a bummer for a majority of us here since nobody of us expected the score to go this high but coming draws will prove to be fruitful especially with the 3 draws coming up in October inshaALLAH.

 

[navinball]

Are you sure? Because where was advance metrics when your prediction for draw 124 went completely wrong?

are you nuts? it was a 1 week draw.

 

[navinball]

Out of curiosity, What ML algorithms are did you use? Assuming that you went with Supervised learning as we are looking at a prediction problem rather than a classification one, Wondering what your variables were.

Edit: Also, could you share the data set as well? Am just curious about it as I work on these stuff in my job.

you are very curious 'indpnv' and i like that about you. the data set was the draw stats posted on cic website.

 

[indpnv]

you are very curious 'indpnv' and i like that about you. the data set was the draw stats posted on cic website.

Thanks, What about the variables and the algo?

Edit: Would be great if you could share the processed data set used to run your model. A sample would also do.

 

[ahsanshahbaz]

are you nuts? it was a 1 week draw.

So your predications can fall flat based on fact that CIC decides for another B2B draw. Hmmm interesting not so solid prediction after all

 

[RAliyev]

Hi Guys. Could you please inform what are my chances to get ITA with score 456 until July 2020?

 

[Jasmine1998]

Base on my 3 years experience in this forum

420s people are hoping when it was 430s, 430s people are hoping when it was 440s and so on...

Unfortunately, the score rare came down again to a lower range and I am not sure where were these people nowadays. CIC is a bullet train that keeps moving forward, it may slow down to pick up some lucky passenger (b2b draw) but it will never go backward.

How many times are you going to say the same thing. Jeez!!!

 

[Aady07]

For Qualifying 3 Years Continuous Employment is sufficient.But I did not notice the gaps in the employment until i received NOI from Ontario.I did not want to take a risk of misrepresentation so did not submit for OINP but did make changes to the Express entry with 6 years employment and was planning to present rest 2 under part time after post ITA. No NOI does not specify anything.Since score this year is unpredictable and not sure if it comes down to 451 this year where I am at so I am looking for clarification on whether to be eligible for a re invite from OINP should I withdraw and recreate a new express entry profile or would I be re invited on my existing application if a tech draw happens again in 2020 again so that I could plan accordingly.

Buddy, the points you are claiming for in your EE profile, you need to prove them after getting ITA. Now after receiving ITA, Ofcourse the nomination is there, as per your earlier statement, I believe you have 6yrs of continuous employment. As you've mentioned 8yrs of employment, you can describe it in the personal history as well as with a letter of LOE, your case is justified. There is no misrepresentation as you have worked for 6yrs continuous and 2yrs of part time.

Lemme share my friends experience. While creating his EE profile, he mentioned 30k CAD he'll be carrying. After getting NOI, the POF he gave to OINP was for 27k CAD. Upon receiving the nomination and later the ITA, he presented a POF for 25.5k CAD. Now if you see, there are misrepresentation at every step and POF is a very important part of this immigration system.

The analysis were, that CIC requires the funds which they have prescribed. Anything less than their benchmark figure, follows with a rejection.

He had 12 yrs of work experience, which was mentioned in the EE but he showed 8yrs and 6months of continuous and rest as part time. He knew that he will get points for max 6yrs. But the point is, after getting ITA, there shouldn't be any misrepresentation.

EE profile always asks for foreign work experience with Max choice as 3yrs and above. It does not have the choices for 5yrs/8yrs or 10yrs and above. Henceforth, when you get the NOI, the details are asked for.

Think before taking any step or speak to an immigration lawyer rather than a consultant.

 

[RAliyev]

InshAllah, whatever was predicted by navinball and facethereality will be incorrect and out of reality and those who really hope to get their ITA will receive their golden invitation very very soon Guys!! Good luck !!

 

[Angel1113]

Hi Guys. Could you please inform what are my chances to get ITA with score 456 until July 2020?

Even after very heart breaking draw of yesterday. There is a good chance of getting an ITA before this year ends with 456. Here is why: - draw size is expected to increase to 3900 keeping 2019's target in mind.
- on August 20th backlog of candidates with crs 457 or more waiting for an ITA was cleared.

Honestly, decline in score will be very slow due to PNPs that were issued in July & August until oct's second draw. But 456 will be cleared before 2019 ends.

If you can increase your score in the mean time then definitely try. It is always better to try than just waiting but if you can't then don't loose hope just yet. Good luck!

 

[Angel1113]

PLEASE HELP!!!
with this trend my husband is planning to apply alone. Therefore after he is getting the PR how long it takes get the PR for the spouse

4-12 months for outland spouse.

 

[Angel1113]

Hey Guys, my current crs is 456 & I have OINP invite since 15th August, I am in the process of collecting documents. I was hoping to wait till 25th September to submit my application. Now, cut off soaring again I am thinking to submit it ASAP, now my question is if I submit my application and cut off drops below 456 then will I still be eligible for ITA?

Anyone else in the same boat?

Yes your profile will still be eligible for regular draws while you are waiting for your PNP to be approved.

 

[RAliyev]

Even after very heart breaking draw of yesterday. There is a good chance of getting an ITA before this year ends with 456. Here is why: - draw size is expected to increase to 3900 keeping 2019's target in mind.
- on August 20th backlog of candidates with crs 457 or more waiting for an ITA was cleared.

Honestly, decline in score will be very slow due to PNPs that were issued in July & August until oct's second draw. But 456 will be cleared before 2019 ends.

If you can increase your score in the mean time then definitely try. It is always better to try than just waiting but if you can't then don't loose hope just yet. Good luck!

Thank you very much Angel1113!